Monday, October 23, 2006

WISH-TV Poll Good News For Republicans

A WISH-TV poll shows Republican candidates making up big ground in their respective races for the 7th District congressional seat and Marion Co. Prosecutor's race. Last month, this same poll showed Rep. Julia Carson (D) with a 20-point lead over Republican Eric Dickerson. The new numbers show that Dickerson has cut Carsons lead down to just 5 points, and that's within the margin of error. Carson leads Dickerson by 48%-43% with 9% undecided according to the poll.

Carson is supported by 75% of black voters, indicating that Dickerson is succeeding in attracting more black voters than Republicans have previously been able to garner in her other five races. The poll shows him attracting 13% of the black vote. Among white voters, Dickerson is favored overwhelmingly, 58%-36%. Carson typically draws as much as 95% of the black vote. Dickerson leads among male voters, while Carson leads among female voters. If you average this poll with last week's WTHR-TV poll, the race is a dead heat with Carson getting 45% to Dickerson's 44%.

Dickerson did not respond to Shella's request for a reaction to the new poll. He tells Shella he's chasing votes not polls. A feeble Carson, not sounding altogether optimistic, told Shella, "You know one of my favorite sayings is it ain't over till the fat lady sings. And we're hoping the fat lady does an appearance in behalf of yours truly."

In the race for Marion Co. Prosecutor, Brizzi has taken a 50%-42% lead over Democrat Melina Kennedy with 8% undecided. In last month's WISH-TV poll, Kennedy led Brizzi slightly by a 43%-42% margin. A WTHR poll taken last week showed Brizzi with an even larger lead of 51%-35%. Interestingly, Brizzi's showing was only 1% different between the two polls, while Kennedy polled 7% less in the WTHR poll. If you average the two poll results, Brizzi leads Kennedy 50.5%-39%. Brizzi had a big lead among men and independents. Kennedy had a slight lead among women voters.

The demographics of the poll arguably favored Democrats. The breakout is as follows:


Democrats 172 (43%)
Republicans 124 (31%)
Other 104 (26%)
White 264 (66%)
Black 104 (26%)
Other 32 (8%)

Tonight's poll is confirmation of a trend towards the major Republican candidates in Marion County just two weeks before the election. It also confirms that the WTHR-TV poll was not off-the-wall. I suspect that voter concerns about crime and government corruption is working in favor of Republicans this year in local Marion County races--the exact opposite as what is happening at the national level. As Tip O'Neill used to say, "all politics are local."

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Elect Eric Dickerson!!!

www.ERICDICKERSONFORCONGRESS.com

Wilson46201 said...

When voters go to the polls and see Dickerson is actually running on the Republican Party line, many folk will not vote for him. Who needs to send another Republican to join that corrupt and failed GOP Washington mess?

Wilson46201 said...

www.JuliaCarson.org

www.house.gov/Carson

Poli Sci Prof said...

Gary-

This poll does favor Democrats, but then agian, the county/district favors Democrats. Your stratifications seem to reflect the county/district much more than the WTHR poll, and I would accept this poll as representitve. I was curious, was the methodology random-digit, or random listed?

indyernie said...

If Dickerson can get the white R's out he wins hands down. Too bad racism will play in this.

Anonymous said...

We want to see Julia debate Dickerson. We are tired of hearing from her right hand man Wilson. When will she speak up for herself. Where is she and why won't she come out of hiding.

That extra black vote that no other republican challenger has ever received in the past will sail Dickerson into Washington.

Regardless of how he wins, it's good that he will. We will all finally be represented properly in Congress. Thanks for running Eric. We've got your back.

Anonymous said...

If you adjust for WISH-TV's oversampling of Democrats, it's a dead heat between Carson and Dickerson.

indyernie said...

Has been all along. Eric hit the gate running. Julia had to stop to pick up her wig.

Anonymous said...

What will Amos say now? He gets a poll with an oversampling of Democrats and proportionate number of blacks and Julia's still barely ahead.

Wilson46201 said...

So listen to Amos Brown tomorrow at 1pm on his 2-hour show on AM-1310

Advance Indiana said...

Not sure, poli sci prof. You might try e-mailing that question to Shella: jshella@wishtv.com

Corina said...

I made it home tonight in time to see Julia on the news tonight. That woman looks tired, and listening to her words it sounds like she is ready to be done with it all, she's got no fight left in her.

I think she said, "I'm hoping the fat woman sings for me." Oh my, it is time to let her rest.

Now before any of you go jumping my words, I am simply listening to Julia talk, go listen for yourself. It is really very sad.

Anonymous said...

Polls are a snapshot in time. Who knows how it'll come out?

The good polls do not do random digit dialing from phone books, but from lists of registered voters.

But 14 days out, any candidate hovering near 50 usually wins. That's just the way it is.

If the Ch. 8 poll is to be believed, there are few undecideds left. And that's about what I'd suspect in the prosecutor and Congressional race.

But I do think there'll be a lot of scratching this year.

We're gonna get a Democratic sheriff and clerk. Thank God for the clerk, too....Dems are hungry for that office.

Anonymous said...

We're gonna get a Democratic sheriff

We already have a Dumbocrat sheriff. That's part of the problem.

I'm not thrilled over Beth White's statements over her position that she'll play fast and loose with the Voter ID law, or worse lobby to get it tossed out.

Anonymous said...

I hear Beth White also make the comment about the voter ID law and that is a perfect reason of why she shouldn't be elected.

It is a law. As an elected official I expect them to uphold the law. If you don't like it you do something to change it, you don't just ignore it. The current problems are here because too many elected officials don't think the laws apply to them.

Advance Indiana said...

Not to mention the fact that she's an attorney. Can someone point me to a new source which reported her saying that?

Anonymous said...

Beth White spoke at both the Holy Angels Forum and the Greenbrian Neighborhood Association on the topic. Sorry, didn't get it on tape.

Poli Sci Prof said...

There have been a couple of posters who observe that this poll had a higher number of Democratic respondants than Republican respondants. This isn't an "oversample" in the classical sense, that is, sampling at a higher rate than the population, but an appropiate stratification. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Marion County.

Secondly, random-digit dialing isn't "picking numbers from a phonebook," it is randomly selecting from the prefixes used in the area, and randomly finishing the number. The first question is to ascertain registration. The second question in to ascertain if the respondant is a "likely" voter.

From all measures I've seen, this poll is MUCH better than the WTHR poll.

Anonymous said...

To fall from a 20 point lead to a 5 point lead from the same polling company can not be good news for Julia.

With the margin of error and undecidedes this is a toss up.

Anonymous said...

Not to mention the fact that she's an attorney. Can someone point me to a new source which reported her saying that?

I didn't get it on tape either but she did make statements at Holy Angels that indicate she would take such position if elected.

1. "Voter ID is a BAD LAW"
2. "She hoped it would be overturned [in court]"

She then went over all the types of ID's that are not accepted for voter ID (government employee ID, etc.) and from my take on her statements she would lobby the General Assembly to repeal Voter ID barring a judicial strike.

It was also not reported by the MSLM. Us bloggers come thru when the dinosaur media does not.

Anonymous said...

10:50 - she didn't make such a bold statement at Greenbriar. She just held up her campaign rack card and on the back was the list of acceptable Voter ID types.

Anonymous said...

www.house.gov/carson

Yes you'll see how little she has accomplished in her so-called tenure in Congress.

Jocelyn-Tandy Adande said...

Advance Indiana:

MEDIC Neighborhood Assn. is sponsoring a Meet the Candidates Forum and Debate from 6-9 PM.
Debates will be 1/2 hour each for Center Township Trustee, Marion County Sheriff, Clerk, 7th District Congress. Other candidates for offices will be introduced from 6-6:45.

Eunice Trotter,Star Public Safety Editor will be the moderator of Panelists: RiShawn Biddle, Star Editorial Board, Derik Thomas, Channel 6 News will question the candidates.

Debates will be from 7-9 PM:
Donna Edgar and Beth White, Marion County Clerk candidates have agreed to debate on Friday, 11/3/07
Crispus Attucks High School.

Steve Davis and Barry Campbell, Marion County Sheriff candidates will debate.

Eric Dikcerson for 7th District and Linda Ivey for Center Township Trustee have agreed to debate their opponents Julia Carson and Carl Drummer.

No Shows:
Frank Anderson for sheriff previous commitment.

Julia Carson for Congress and Carl Drummer for Trustee, neither have responded to the invitations.

I guess they are taking the voters for granted.

Anonymous said...

To set the record straight:

I've heard Beth White say many times, that the Voter ID law is a bad law. She is absolutely correct. It is overkill for a problem that didn't exist.

She has also said she'd enforce it well until it is changed/overturned.

I have known her for many years. Any suggestion that she'd ever say anything approaching "fast and loose" application of the law is ridiculous.

She will coast. She deserves to win this one. We're tired of a clerk who uses the office for partisan political advantage like Doris Ann Sadler. So is her own party, or she'd have run again...but the "What Were You Thinking Doris Ann?" ads were almost too good to imagine.

Watching You said...

Wilson you need to stick to supporting the Ghetto Mafia Queen Julia Carson. Talk about the local corruption in your Party.

Voters know the difference between a feeble Democrat and a healthy Republican like Eric Dickerson.

Dickerson will win by a small margin on November 7th.

Anonymous said...

I've heard Beth White say many times, that the Voter ID law is a bad law. She is absolutely correct. It is overkill for a problem that didn't exist.

Your opinion. Not Mine.

She has also said she'd enforce it well until it is changed/overturned.

She just said on 1310 AM Amos Brown show that she would lobby to "change" the Voter ID law. Change or gut it? I'd say being a Democrat she would do the latter.

Anonymous said...

So listen to Amos Brown tomorrow at 1pm on his 2-hour show on AM-1310

So are you still cleaning the [feces] out of your drawers after hearing Eric come on the Amos Brown show today??

Unplanned, unscripted. He just plain showed up at the studio. Classic!

Wilson46201 said...

About damn time Dickerson came to talk on the Amos Brown Show! Kinda rude though just popping in like that. But whatta glib used car salesman - say anything to make a sale!

Of course, I taped it - he was using that tired old Bush line of "We'll stand down as they stand up." We've already stood up 400,000 security forces but 140,000 US troops still aren't enough. The U.S. General in charge of Baghdad is asking for even more US troops. Eric supported wading into that MidEast Iraq quagmire - Congresswoman Carson courageously voted against that endless War!

Anonymous said...

Gee, Hail, I wasn't aware that lobbying to change any law was a bad thing, especially one so bad as Voter ID

Those of you who preach Republican small government values, had bet revisit your playbook on this one You're supporting massive overkill for a problem that just didn't exist.

As the clerk of the largest county in the state, I hope to hell Beth White doe lobby to change this law. She should.

Anonymous said...

*does

Anonymous said...

Kinda rude though just popping in like that.

You're only pissed off because Amos couldn't have time to compose enough lies and do a spewing monologue against Eric. He has better things to do than to come on the radio to be abused. If he wants to be abused he can read garbage like TDW.

It was very much a defining moment in favor of Eric Dickerson in the campaign.

Anonymous said...

1. You must have photo ID to enter a federal building

2. You must have photo ID to board an airplane or even enter some areas of airports

3. You must have photo ID to get a job. You know the I-9 form you have to fill out?

And the Left is whining about having to show photo ID at the polls.

Jocelyn-Tandy Adande said...

Voter ID - We have a voter ID requirement in Indiana due to voting fraud on poll books and fraudulent absentee ballots casts. Reason it was never proven in a court.

When a candidate contests the election results, they must post a bond for the number of precincts they want to have reviewed or recounted.

The fraud committed has to be proven in specific precincts. A picture ID keeps every potential voter honest and legal.

Example: If candidate "A" pays Meg Smith who lives and votes in Ward 2, Precinct 1, she could go to Ward 2, Precinct 3 and sign the poll book for Martha Smith, deceased, and cast a vote.
She will have voted twice in one election.

This type of fraud is more difficult to prove unless you have poll watchers inside the polling area documenting irregularities.

A large percentage of potential voters did not vote before the law was enacted. If any of these people ever decide to vote, they would have to get registered and they must show a picture ID.

Certain members of the Democrat Party know all about these tactics reason they are protesting the Voter ID Law. Say it isn't so!

A type of voter ID keeps everybody honest on Election Day. Don't we want fair and accurate elections?

Wilson46201 said...

Isnt it amazing that all those "small Government Republicans" are now hollering so loudly about requiring citizens to carry Government ID Cards? What's next? Tattooing ID on the forehead in barcode to make it easier for computers to constantly track every move?

Hypotheticals are being imagined and fabricated to justify this government intrusion into Americans liberties. Where have the true conservatives gone?