Thursday, October 19, 2006

Brizzi Takes Commanding Lead In New Poll

A new WTHR-TV poll shows incumbent Prosecutor Carl Brizzi (R) with a comfortable 16% lead over Democratic candidate Melina Kennedy. The poll shows Brizzi with a 51%-35% lead, with 12% of the voters undecided. The poll shows Kennedy having trouble attracting Democratic and women voters. Brizzi is capturing 26% of the Democratic vote, and he leads her among likely women voters by a 46%-37% margin. Brizzi is losing just 9% of the Republican vote to Kennedy.

This indicates that the harsh attacks Kennedy launched against Brizzi in recent weeks have not resonated with voters as well as ads and messages focusing attention on her lack of prosecutorial experience. This is a complete turnaround from an earlier WISH-TV poll which showed Kennedy with a slight lead over Brizzi.

The big news will come at 11:00 p.m. tonight when WTHR announces the poll results from the 7th District congressional race. WTHR is promising "surprising results." AI hears that the poll will show Dickerson with a slight lead over Carson, with 45%-42% favoring Dickerson over Carson. Look for Marion Co. Democrats to be joined by state and national Democrats in a last-ditch, desparate effort to save Carson from defeat.

31 comments:

Wilson46201 said...

Julia never polls well - never has. Ask Brian Vargus!

The only result this poll will have is the Dickerson crowd will get wildly excited only to have their fantasies swept away once again. Newt thought he had it "in the bag" with Hoffmeister. When it was called at 6pm for Carson, the world started to crash down for Gingrich. Oh well ...

Wilson46201 said...

fwiw, now you can see why it's useful to have a cushion of cash for campaigning. I wonder if E.D. will finally break down and put some of his own money where his mouth is?

Anonymous said...

Do you have a breakdown on D/R sampling, M/F sampling and the sample of minorities. For that much movement to take place, there is a sampling anomaly.

Wilson46201 said...

We'd also need a similar breakdown of that WISH-TV poll to see if there has been any actual movement or whether the disparities are just due to polling artifacts...

Skeptic said...

Just as a matter of comparison:

WISH-TV poll:
Carson: 55
Dickerson: 35

Kennedy: 43
Brizzi: 42

Something's amiss, you don't see this much movement without a sampling error, 6:54 is right.

Wilson46201 said...

the most recent poll results are also quite suspect when one remembers that (charitably-phrased) this year Republicans do not have a favorable tailwind ...

Anonymous said...

Poor Wilson. He's confusing his CNN from his local news. He's under the mistaken impression that we really give a rat's a** about the whole national buzzword issues thing here in Indianapolis. We are voting based on LOCAL issues. Namely crime. Lack of action from both the Mayor and the Congressperson. It's time for a change here. Indianapolis is sliding downward and we can put a stop to it.

"Taxation without Representation: Washington DC puts that phrase on its license plates. It's also what Indianapolis residents have endured for the past 10 years"

skeptic said...

Hailstone, if "for 10 years", you mean the Mayor that was reelected handily, the Congressperson that is in a "safe" district, and a county that is trending Democratic, you're right. Otherwise, go back to the region from whence you sprung.

Anonymous said...

A good poll analysis is definitely needed here.

I'm aware of internals that show Kennedy at 43, Brizzi 47 and almost no movement for two weeks. From a very respected firm, that highly stratifies each sampling.
From what I hear on the streets, that's about right.

As far as Julia's race, the same internals are being closely-guarded. Which means they are not what she wants, but I seriously doubt she's behind. Two years ago, at the same time, she was in the high 50s. She is definitely not there now, but I doubt she's in the low 40s, either.

National trends cannot be ignored, Hail. Those trends have hurt Julia sometimes, held her totals down, but she survived anyway. This is definitely not a Republican year...students of polling will tell you it'll take an earthquake to move the national numbers much more. The events of late have been so attention-grabbing, voters are shell-shocked and tired. There just aren't many undecideds left. To move Republican Congressional numbers, in many districts, and the 7th is definitely in this group, you've got to take votes away from the Dem.

Not that Julia can't lose some votes. With Wilson shilling thorugh garbage cans for her, ya never know.

But it just doesn't sound right.

And if it IS per chance correct, expect Julia's crew to pull out all the stops...and if that happens, expect anything. Literally.

For what it's worth, traditional Dem sources are turning in absentees by the truckload. More than I've seen in along time.

poli sci student said...

8:24 is spot-on.

I could design a poll with whatever result I wanted by targeting (or just simply falling into) a non-representitve sample.

My guess is this poll undersampled blacks and democrats, while oversampling republicans and males.

Wilson46201 said...

Interestingly enough, Julia Carson has a quirky aversion to polls. For fundraising purposes her campaign has been forced in the past to do polling - she refuses to even be in the room when poll details are discussed! She's out and about enough in the community to keep her own political radar attuned to the public moods.

Anonymous said...

What if it was the WISH poll that was poorly done? Didn't this one have twice as many people in it as the WISH poll?

Anonymous said...

If the sample is appropiatly stratified, the number is relitvely irrelevant. To get to the MoE of +/- 4, you need to sample about 600 people, MoE of +/- 3, about 1000. The margin isn't the question, its the stratification.

Anonymous said...

LMAO She's out and about, Wilson?

Looking for the little girl? Please let us know....we're so concerned for this poor little thing. It's cold tonight.

The Julia-leaves-the-room-during-polling scenario is a flat out lie.

Who the hell are you kidding?

Poll respondent sample size, and stratification are key. I may want to believe the poll results cited here, and it may make good TV/paper/blog commentary, but I simply can't. It defies logic.

But every year, there's one race, nationally, that goes against the grain. I just doubt is Julia-Eric in 06. Barring something unforseen, Julia wins by eight or more.

Which, if Eric plays his cards right, sets him up beautifully to start Nov. 8 running for 08. Hell even the Republican Party might actually back him.

Hint, Eric: just keep Murphy away from ya. He's poison.

Advance Indiana said...

Zogby polls out today show a turnaround in several key Senate races for Republicans. Zogby viewed as one of the most reliable pollsters. All races are local. People are picking up on local issues in these races that have nothing to do with national dymamics.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like the democrates are trying to tell the republicans to stay home because they can't win anyways. (Don't look at the little man behind the curtain.) So the republicans need to make sure they are out in force. Don't forget the headline that said something about "Dewey Wins!".

The good news is that when Carson loses she and her handlers will have time to look for the little girl.

Wilson46201 said...

Congresslady Julia Carson knows 25% of her constituents are under 18 years old. She has always been an advocate for children and their issues.

indyernie said...

Wilson, 6 of the 17 posts here are yours, are you getting nervous?

Anonymous said...

Gary, until Zogby or Ispos turns in numbers like this, I'm going to be skeptical of a 30 point swing.

indyernie said...

Wilson,I talked to 6 IUPUI students tonight...guess who they are going to vote for? LOOK!, Dickerson's numbers just went up again.

indybert said...

indyearnie

6 IUPUI students?! Oh no. When statistics hold, and you found 1.2 voters for Eric Dickerson tonight, congratulations.

Anonymous said...

My, my, my, what a busy little Wilson-mouse has been.

I'm sure if the poll favored Julia would be hearing a completely different tune - anyone here surprised?? But please do tell just exactly WHERE'S JULIA? One particular Julia staffer is always able to find Eric.

Wilson, at 1006 you talk about her love for children - again - we want to help find the child she spoke about on Indiana Insiders on Sunday morning - prove she cares about children and give us the information we need to help find her!

indyernie said...

Hey Bert, I didn't know that Wilson had a brother...do you share the same bottle of Greenish-Yellow hair dye? I can tell you are brothers, you both have the same sharp tongue. Anyway you look a it, a vote is a vote. I'll take the 1.2, thank you.

Vote Her Out said...

Wilson 46201:

Have you polled the black community lately?

African American voters have wanted a qualified candidate to vote for in the 7th district and they have one with Eric Dickerson.

No more embarassments in Congress.
Celebration time come on! "Say it loud, I am black and I am proud!"

Wilson46201 said...

"Say it loud, I am black and I am proud!"

and you are so ashamed to be associated with Republicans you dare not speak your name !

Anonymous said...

LMAO. Wilson, you're making fun of someone elses's hair dye?

Have you looked in a mirror, lately? That color on your dome doesn't exist in nature.

Amber Alert Request No. 6...we need that information. Hell it's been seven days since the taping. That little girl could be starved to death by now.

Wilson46201 said...

most of the Dickerson supporters here are as anonymous as that little girl was - it's so peculiar that they only use pseudonyms or remain studiously anonymous. Why so cowardly and ashamed?

Anonymous said...

"Cowardly and ashamed" ? Are you serious, Wilson?

Repeated (and equally anonymous, but traceable) threats and retaliation against anything favored by Drummer-Carson-Mays, et al...

I value my home, my family, my job, my life, Wilson. I've seen the damage done by the retribution when Miss Carson is opposed.

No thank you.

Anonymous said...

"most of the Dickerson supporters here are as anonymous as that little girl was - it's so peculiar that they only use pseudonyms or remain studiously anonymous. Why so cowardly and ashamed?"

Would you like your name, date of birth, and social security number pasted on the internet for all to see and steal? Because of YOUR actions the challenger to your congressperson had that happen to him. YOU got the information and YOU sent it to Jen Wagner of TDW and she pasted it on the internet for all to see.

Wilson46201 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Wilson46201 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.