Monday, March 10, 2008

Who Will Win The 7th District Special Election?

No reputable pollster has released any information on polling results in the 7th District congressional race since a polling firm hired by the campaign of Democrat Carolene Mays in early January released results showing Carson in a near dead heat race with Elrod. The DCCC and the Carson campaign have taken at least four polls between them since late January. The NRCC also polled the district once about a month ago. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have released their polling data. The Democratic response to the polling information resulted in an unprecedented investment of national party dollars flowing into what is considered a safe Democratic seat, suggesting the race might be closer than some would think. Both WISH-TV and WRTV are conducting online polls today. Elrod is beating Carson in both polls, but it's nearly a dead heat in the WRTV poll. Libertarian Sean Shepard may well be a spoiler if the race is as tight as it seems. Here's what the online polls show:


Carson 25%
Elrod 37%
Shepard 3%

Note: 35% of the respondents said they didn't live in the district.


Carson 47%
Elrod 48%
Shepard 1%

On another note, a new YouTube clip touting David Orentlicher's campaign is up. It raises questions about who is financing Carson's campaign. Click here to view it.


Anonymous said...

I don't know who wins, but either way the 7th District loses. Both candidates are an embarrasment to this district.

By the way what is the over-under that Beth White screws this election up again?

Anonymous said...

Why would you waste your time printing these unscientific silly polls while at the same time admitting that 35% admit that they dont live in the district......seems to me that you may be trying to boost the chances of your losing candidate.

Gary R. Welsh said...

The online polls, if not scientific, can help guage the intensity of the candidates' support. Every online poll during last year's mayoral election showed Ballard beating Peterson, even though every scientific poll released to the public during the campaign showed Peterson winning.

Sean Shepard said...

On-Line polls also showed Ron Paul winning basically everything but...

...updated poll information (WISH TV Poll - numbers adjusted for not in the district votes as of 7:48 PM)

Carson: 36.9%
Elrod: 56.9%
Shepard: 6.2%

Jon E. Easter said...

"A reminder--neither this nor any other YouTube channel expresses the opinions of David Orentlicher or anyone affiliated with his campaign. Unless campaign authorization is specifically stated, the campaign's offical website is the only outlet that represents communications on behalf of David Orentlicher for Congress."

That's the first comment...and it's from "Orentlichercampaign".

Any good journalist would have pointed that out.

Gary R. Welsh said...

Read before speak, Jon Easter. When the first YouTube clip appeared, I pointed out that Orentlicher's campaign disavowed it.