Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Reviewing The Election Predictions

Well, I didn't get all the predictions right, but I did better than I normally do with predictions.

I predicted Democrats would pick up five seats in the U.S. Senate, falling one short of a majority. Although two races are yet to be decided, Virginia and Montana, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Democrats will win both of those seats, giving them a 6-seat gain and 51-seat majority (counting the two Independents). It would be interesting if Sen. Joe Lieberman made a deal with the GOP and aligned with them in exchange for a committee chairmanship. I doubt it will happen, but it would make things interesting.

I predicted Democrats would gain 24 seats and win back control of the U.S. House. I was close. As of the latest count, Democrats have picked up 26 seats. They may extend that lead a little further when all the votes are counted.

I thought the chances were pretty good that Chocola, Hostettler and Sodrel would lose, although I thought Sodrel had the best shot at winning. He did in fact come the closest of the three. I also predicted a close race in the 7th District, although I thought it would be decided by less than 2, 000 votes. The bloodbath the GOP took in Marion Co. overwhelmed Dickerson, although he did much better than many had expected, doing as well as any of Carson's previous opponents.

I predicted Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the Indiana Senate. I completely missed that one. Republicans shut down Democrats in all the competitive races. Even a Democratic year couldn't offset the advantage the Republicans have with the gerrymandered districts.

I predicted Democrats would recapture the House with a 53-47 majority. Democrats appear to have at least a 52-48 majority. With a few undecided races, the Democrats could still wind up with at least 53 seats. I predicted Buell would be upset by Barnes. Buell appears to have won by a few hundred votes . I also thought Jon Elrod had a good shot at upsetting Ed Mahern. Elrod has a very slim 75-vote lead in that race. A recount might be in the offing.

I predicted a 54-46% win for Carl Brizzi. He actually did worse, winning by just 52-48%. I expected the other countywide races to be very tight because of concerns over rising crime and corruption. Democrats easily captured all of the races. The GOP will now only control the prosecutor's office. At least we have someone to reign in all the corruption in this county--if he has the stomach for it. That remains to be seen. You can also write off Brizzi as a potential mayoral candidate in 2007.

As a side note, watch for the GOP to come to the realization that the issue that hurt them in key races was not Iraq or Bush's low public approval ratings, but immigration. The anti-immigration mantra taken up by the GOP in Congress devastated the party in key congressional races, even more so than the gay bashing. Even Karl Rove was hinting that this was a big problem in an election eve interview. Recall that President Bush opposed this approach, favoring a moderate proposal pushed by Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), which had popular support among Hispanic voters.


Anonymous said...

Wow. You really think immigration beat Donna Edgr and the other Republican candidates?

You think immigration (apparently) beat the Lawrence Township Republican arrogance?

You really think there's so much corruption here that Brizzi needs to "save" us?

Have you been drinking bong water? Reading Indy Undercover and actually believing that garbage?

Here's some of the reasons folks lost:

Donna Edgar got Robert Clifford (completely unknown to 95% of the county) to endorse her for clerk in some sort of internal coup trumpeted only by six Republicans and a couple of reporters. And she told us she'd help fight crime from the clerk's office. That office is about elections and court filings. The incumbent has screwed up every possible election topic for four years, and she'd spent precious fiscal resources to chase partisan dreams. And Beth White almost won four eyars ago. Thank God we now have a Democratic clerk who believes like most of we Democrats--that voting should be about access, not roadblocks.

Brizzi eeked out a win because Melina Kennedy screwed up a golden opportunity. It was the lesser of two evils.

Lawrence Township Republicans apppr to have lost, and if so, it's because Paul Ricketts and that hateful GOP machine spent three years whining about losing the mayor's office, instead of working at their jobs. Plus they're nuts. Did I mention hateful?

Julia Carson won for reasons known only to God. And some curious Dickerson campaign moves. Neither one will win in 08.

And the Indiana House is Democratic now for many reasons, mostly because they recruited excellent candidates. All politics is local.

Anonymous said...

Julia Carson won for reasons known only to God...Neither one will win in 08.

People that I've seen don't even bother with the candidates. They vote party. Straight Dem, Straight GOP it don't matter.

If Julia lives to see 2008 it'll be a miracle.

Gary - your home state and a state of former residence of mine - Illinois - finally got rid of straight party voting in the 1990's. Should Indiana consider getting rid of straight ticket voting? I think we should.

Anonymous said...

If we get rid of straight voting (no pun intended), voters will be even more confused. Sad to say.

To test that theory, I marked my ballot office-by-office yesterday. It took several minutes, and I ha dto go back and re-check.

The problem isn't straight-party voting. The problem is idiots as candidates. Followed by idiots.

Gary R. Welsh said...

Sir Hailstone, judging by the election results in Illinois, it obviously doesn't make a difference. They just re-elected a throroughly corrupt governor who the U.S. Attorney has more than hinted that he plans to indict for "pay for play" shenenanigans.

Anonymous said...

Have you been drinking bong water? Reading Indy Undercover and actually believing that garbage?

That is the first time I have laughed out loud at something on this blog. I couldn't have said it better myself. Bush himself admitted in his press conference today that the opinions on the war in Iraq were most likely the key to the losses for the Republican's. Aren't you paying attention?

I really want to know how you figure that immigration plays into this. I'm fascinated!

Anonymous said...

People that I've seen don't even bother with the candidates. They vote party. Straight Dem, Straight GOP it don't matter.

That is a ridiculous statement. If that was the case then neither Rokita nor Lugar would have been victiorious... I voted for both, by the way.

It was commented on CBS news yesterday afternoon that people were splitting their votes nationwide. People were paying more attention to the issues rather than voting along party lines.

Where do you guys come up with these crazed voting philosophies? As predicted, it was a bad day for the Republican candidates. Trying to come up with wild theories as to why is just nutty.

Anonymous said...

I'm going by personal observation.

Also, the numbers for Dems across the board were similar, with the exception of Carl Brizzi.

People were "scratching" by voting for Brizzi and straight party Dem also.

The Democratic candidate for SoS took Marion County so the Dems will run elections themselves - both Clerk and the poll inspectors will be Democrats.

Let's see how badly they will futz up in 2007, 2008, etc.

Anonymous said...

I am so happy I chose not to move into Marion County when I moved back to the Indianapolis area. It has been eight years since I lived here, and the place has just been going down hill. At least the dems that ran the show in the NY area seemed to have a clue... here they are just clueless and completely incompetent. Mayor Bart uses daddy's millions to prop himself and his cronies up, Rozell uses the CCC as his own private club, Julia uses taxpayer dollars to support her own Ruth Lilly-esque retirement to the pasture, Frank Anderson gets a free ride while watching the city set records in murders and crime, and everyone sits around while the Corner redecorates his own house with money from poor dead people and unwitting taxpayers. And the pathetic newspaper sits around and watches it all without saying a word. At least the Colts are moving in the right direction!