Tuesday, August 19, 2008

McCain Takes Six-Point Lead In Indiana

Real Clear Politics has been categorizing Indiana as a toss up state in the presidential race. A new Survey USA poll puts McCain ahead by six points, 50%-44%. That's tipped the balance nationally in the electoral college vote count in McCain's favor for the first time. This year's election reminds me a little of the 1992 presidential race between George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. About this time during that campaign, Ann DeLaney was on Indiana Week In Review trying to convince us that Bill Clinton would carry Indiana that year, even with Dan Quayle on the ticket with Bush. Despite Bush's disastrous loss nationally, winning just 37% of the national vote and a strong third-party candidate in Ross Perot, Bush still managed to carry Indiana by 90,000 votes. Perot captured 20% of the vote, holding Bush to 43% compared to Clinton's 37%. I know the Obama folks really like hyping his chances in Indiana in hopes that he will choose Bayh as his running mate and boost the chances of Jill Long Thompson, but I don't see Indiana switching from a red state to a blue state this year. I suspect McCain will wind up with at least 53%-54% of the vote on a bad day where he loses nationally. He'll carry Indiana by at least 10 points if he wins nationally.

Hat tip to Paul Ogden.

12 comments:

Chris Of Rights said...

Won't be Bayh. Too risky. The new Governor will appoint his replacement. I know there's hope that adding Bayh will give JLT a better shot, but that's a mighty big bet to place on her, when her campaign seems to be slipping. I can't believe the Dems would let Obama take a Senate seat away from them without a fight.

Flynn said...

Actually I think Jill Long Thompson's chances are improving instead of getting worse. Unemployment just hit a 14 year high. Still I think you'd have to rate Daniels the favorite. People who live in and near the Indy beltway don't realize how unpopular Daniels is in the rest of the state.

artfuggins said...

not only that, he has a record of being a back bench senator who has done nothing and is afraid to take a stand...........ZERO

Sir Hailstone said...

"not only that, he has a record of being a back bench senator who has done nothing and is afraid to take a stand...........ZERO"

I agree. Obama is not a good candidate for President.

Flynn said...

Art, are you talking about Bayh or Obama?

Michael said...

McCain now +5 in Zogby poll.

My money for Dem Veep is on Hillary.

Anyone see her lately?

I hope McCain picks Sarah Palin, especially if The One goes the white male route.

briefs said...

I grabbed a quick blurb from this post and put on Hoosiers for McCain too.

http://hoosiersformccain.blogspot.com

Chris Of Rights said...

Flynn,
That same SurveyUSA poll has Daniels up by 14 over JLT. And Daniels has a considerable money advantage. She can still win, but she needs to stop the bleeding fast, or hope this poll is an outlier.

artfuggins said...

I am an early and strong supporter of Obama....Bayh is the empty suit.

Flynn said...

Chris, for an incumbent to only have 52% is a problem. And as far as money, as long as both campaigns are adequately funded (which they are) the funding difference doesn't matter that much.

Jon E. Easter said...

I'm sure we'll start seeing articles touting how "McCain got his groove back." You have to hand it to Rick Davis...he's opened the Karl Rove playbook and it's working again.

Hats off to McCain. I guess Obama should just quit now. Looks like McCain's on his way to a walk away win in November. Let's just call the General Election today.

Where is that emoticon for sarcasm....did I say that out loud?

Chris Of Rights said...

No, you'd be foolish to start thinking that McCain is going to walk away with this. But Obama supporters have been telling us for months that Obama would, and have been saying for the last month that "the polls haven't really changed at all". That is clearly not true.

Flynn, you and I will have to just disagree on this. IMO, anything over 50 is fantastic. It means the challenger not only has to get ALL of the undecideds, she has to get some of the people who are currently planning to vote for him. And I don't think she's in that great of a position financially. He's going to be able to outspend her greatly in the final days of the campaign with a strong ground game. Of course, the ground game is often staffed with volunteers, so maybe she'll be ok, but typically the candidate with the most cash handles this better.

Bayh an empty suit?
1 Term as IN SoS.
2 Terms as IN Governor.
In 2nd Term as US Senator.
Chairman of Democratic Leadership Council
Member of Armed Services Committee and Senate Select Intelligence Committee

Afraid to take a stand? He STILL supports the Iraq war. That's a pretty big stand for a Democratic Senator.