Friday, October 26, 2007

Feigenbaum Speculates On Elrod Candidacy

Ed Feigenbaum of the Indiana Legislative Insight is reporting in the latest edition that State Rep. Jon Elrod is leaning in favor of a run for the 7th District congressional seat currently occupied by Rep. Julia Carson (D). Feigenbaum writes:

We're hearing renewed talk that Rep. Jon Elrod will be deferring a re-election bid in HD 97 in favor of a run for Congress in CD 07. Republicans saw how the absence of a credible candidate for mayor of Indianapolis cost them in what could have been a competitive race this year, and Rep. Elrod seeks to capitalize on that in 2008, or use a strong bid in 2008 to parlay him into the seat in 2010. GOP consultants were urging Rep. Elrod to run for the seat earlier this year and he would not commit, but with circumstances seemingly changing and his own legislative seat about as tough a proposition to hold on to as making a challenge for the seat held by U.S. Rep. Julia Carson (D), he seems to be leaning to the congressional contest.


Most people with whom I've discussed the 7th District race agree that Elrod would make an attractive and strong candidate to win this seat for the GOP. While Democrats are trying to spin a message that Carson is seeking re-election, that is simply not going to be the case. Her health has deteriorated so much that a re-election bid is simply out of the question. Democrats are trying to throw off Republicans from seeking a strong candidate like Elrod in hopes a weaker no-name candidate will emerge to challenge the person Carson wants to anoint to her seat, her grandson Andre Carson. The younger Carson is no match for Elrod.

The prospect of HD 97 being an open seat is attracting a lot of interest according to Feigenbaum. "We're hearing that at least three credible Democrats--two with ties to the local business community and one related to a political family with long ties to the district--are taking a close look at running, even if Rep. Elrod seeks re-election," Feigenbaum writes.

28 comments:

Sir Hailstone said...

I for one would like to see Jon give the Machine a run for its money. He could garner lots of support and as you well know the 7 vote win in HD97 was an nothing short of a miracle. You know the Dems are going to target Jon hard.

Now if Mr. Bosma and company will appreciate Jon giving up HD97 to run for Congress in 2008.

Wilson46201 said...

The last time the Indianapolis Congressional District went Republican was in 1972 on Richard Nixon's coattails. Since 1974 the voters always chose the Democratic candidate (Jacobs and Carson). Why on earth in 2008 would anybody imagine a Republican candidate would have much of a chance?

Bil Browning said...

I have to admit, an Elrod candidacy would give me pause to think. I may be a hard-core Democrat, but I really like Jon and I think he's very competent.

And it would a refreshing change to see 2 gay positive candidates duking it out for the seat instead of the usual Republican bs.

Jon's a good guy. I hope he runs. I may not end up supporting him over the Democrat, but he'd make the race much more interesting and challenging.

Anonymous said...

He has no chance to win either race so he might as well lose the race for the higher office. Perhaps he even resides in the 7th Congressional District while he DOES NOT live in the 97th House District.

Anonymous said...

because even a bad republican candidate got 40% (scott), two that the party didn't support (horning, dickerson) did even better, and because the situation with the incumbent is appalling. andre has not had the position to dole out the cash the way julia did so there aren't as many favors to repay. furthermore, the growing areas of the district are around the periphery and generally lean or are strongly republican. even with the way the lines are drawn, you have a 40% republican base in the 7th. middle class african american voters in the townships are not going to vote the same as those in the center of the julia universe.

this will be fixed permanently in 2012. indiana loses another congressional seat and the district has to expand to account for population shifts as well as the loss of the seat. since there will be no real way to create a majority democrat district any longer, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Advance Indiana said...

Hate to burst your bubble anon 12:19, but it was Elrod's predecessor who didn't live in his district.

Anonymous said...

a little help here. isn't andre carson a part of "nation of islam?" is that true or a rumor?

if so, bil, i don't believe he "gay positive."

Anonymous said...

Odd that Bil Browning states he is a diehard Democrat and wouldn't consider a Republican candidate but finds it acceptable to run a flip flop Republican's campaign for the CCC.

Browning is not only a disgrace to the GLBT community he's a damn hypocrite as well. But then most of knew that anyway.

Anonymous said...

And just how many votes do you think Hillary will get in that district in 2008 Wilson? Deja vu!

Anonymous said...

With Evan Bayh on the ticket? A bunch...

Anonymous said...

sorry, even evan can't overcome hillary and jlt at the top of the ticket.

anyone else heard that susan's not a happy camper these days?

next year might not exactly be his best year to run for a national office.

Anonymous said...

If Bayh is so strong in Marion County why hasn't he appeared in any Peterson TV spots.
If Peterson is so strong in Marion County why hasn't he forced Bayh to be in a TV spot.
It appears that both of these career politicians have worn there welcome out in this town.

kay said...

Psst... Bil, hard-core democrats do not manage the campaign of a Republican!!

Anonymous said...

I can see Elrod slated. I can also see Dickerson running against the slate again and being the GOP candidate for the 7th.
Elrod may be the GOP’s golden boy but he can’t carry the 7th.

Anonymous said...

"If Bayh is so strong in Marion County why hasn't he appeared in any Peterson TV spots.
If Peterson is so strong in Marion County why hasn't he forced Bayh to be in a TV spot.
It appears that both of these career politicians have worn there welcome out in this town"

AMEN Brother! AMEN!

Anonymous said...

ya know, 1:03, that is a great point. i suspect he was never asked.

perhaps the democrats never thought they really had to make much of an effort and that bart's shiny happy people ads would be enough. they are just making people even more angry because they don't feel the sense of safety, job security, or confidence in schools presented in them.

perhaps bayh is too busy jockeying for vice president that this is not on his top 10 list. since it appears clinton is in a good position to win (nationally, not here) and if she choses bayh (a democrat a moderate republican can love), one can only hope peterson gets swept away to do something in washington.

they couldn't do it now even if it crossed their minds. it would appear to be an act of desperation. i'm also not sure who it might influence. i'm guessing there are not a lot of people on the fence right now. it's just a matter of who actually goes to the polls. ambivalent folks don't bother. angry voters can't wait.

we'll see.

Anonymous said...

How interesting, Gary...within three hours you have 16 posts, only one of them from Wilson. Obviously, there's interest here.

Jon Elrod would have to win the Republican nomination, which he may be ab le to do. That's not my party so I won't wander into their internal machinations.

If he does get the nod, he can win. Wilson's protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, the district has been cobbled four or five times since the presidential election he cites. And the demographics have changed substantially.

Bil Browning is free to support and work for whomever he likes. He has effectively killed his ability to have much voice within the party anytime soon. I'm sure he calculated that risk.

Not everyone is a Democratic sycophant like Wilson. Because not every Dem or Repub candidate is totally owrthy of your support, are they?

Andre Carson? Puh-leeze. Never happen.

Just one more thing, and this would make me, as a lifelong Dem jump the aisle: in HD 97 next year--please, no more Maherns. Please. Enough already.

Anonymous said...

First, it is common knowledge that Elrod does not live in the 97th and that slipped by once by wont again.
Secondly, I have no idea if Andre Carson intends to run but he is Muslim and a friend of the GLBT community...that is not any stranger than a Catholic candidate who is pro gay.....the Catholic church is very homophobic....lastly, I agree, no more Maherns.

Advance Indiana said...

"First, it is common knowledge that Elrod does not live in the 97th and that slipped by once by wont again."

I don't believe it is common knowledge because it is not true. As I recall, he owns two homes. One is within the district and one is not. Obviously, he claims the one in the district as his residence. The one located outside the district is within a couple of blocks of the 97th District. I haven't heard many folks complaining about Win Moses living in a posh home on a lake up near Broad Ripple for more than the past decade. That's a long way from Fort Wayne.

Anonymous said...

Jon Elrod does live in the district.

"And it would a refreshing change to see 2 gay positive candidates duking it out for the seat instead of the usual Republican bs".

Where did this come from? I know Jon well...he is a great friend to me... and I have never been told this by him....but even if it is true....it is his business and it doesn't change my feelings one bit about his ability to lead the district and represent Indy positively.

Why won't Julia run against him? Come on....Andre? He would be destroyed in a debate with Jon.

Jon is an articulate and indredibly smart young man who has born qualitites to lead and he will do a far better job than Julia has represented the last ten years.

Newsflash WILSON...he is a moderate like a lot of young GOP...scares you huh? We can actually compete with the libs on a lot of social and economic issues?

Advance Indiana said...

anon 7:35, I believe what Bil meant by "gay positive" is that Elrod is not in favor of constitutional amendments banning gay marriage, supports non-discrimination laws, etc. I'm sure it wasn't in reference to his sexual orientation. He is straight if that matters.

republican like me. said...

This is why I love people who leave online comments...their keyboards write checks their political knowledge and acumen can't cash.

The people who say he doesn't live in the district are former Mahernites who are shamed that Ed never set foot in that dump he called a residency down at 2707 Allen Avenue.

Trust me, the only person who lives in that Fountain Square house of his is my ex-girlfriend...who he rented it to.

Anonymous said...

There will be a number of Republican Candidates in the 7th district race next year. Wait and see.

Anonymous said...

it doesnt matter how many republicans run in the primary, only one will run in the general election and that candidate will LOSE..that district is a Democratic candidate and the republican money givers know it and the candidate will not be competitive.......

Anonymous said...

I think it would be interesting to have an openly gay candidate from either party run in that congressional district. We would see just how much hate is in this community.

Anonymous said...

As the brother of the alleged loser of the never to be completed election last year (one precinct DID NOT have either candidate on it's ballots, who knows who would have prevailed if it had)I can assure you that Ed Mahern lived in the district, on Hoefgen St. Just west of Madison Avenue to be exact.

Anonymous said...

Get at least some of your facts straight, Republican like me,. Ed does own the house at 2707 Allen Avenue, and I, his brother Martin live there. No female, your ex or otherwise live there or have lived there for at least 15 years. Also it is not a dump. At the time of the last election Ed lived on Hoefgen St., just west of Madison Avenue, which is in the 97th district

Anonymous said...

Way to go, Marty.....prove them to be the liars and cheats that we know they are.