Thursday, October 25, 2007

Peterson Locked In Dead Heat Race With Ballard

An Indianapolis Star poll released just minutes ago shows Mayor Bart Peterson in a statistical dead heat with his little-financed GOP challenger Greg Ballard. The poll shows Peterson with a narrow 41%-39% lead over Ballard, with Libertarian Fred Peterson capturing 5% of the vote. UPDATE: After releasing its initial poll result, the Star has strangely updated the results to show a larger Peterson lead of 43%-39%. This editorial note has been added to the Star's website: "An earlier version of this story and an accompanying list of poll questions reported different results. Those versions have been revised to present results that more closely reflect voter turnout based on 2004 election results in Indiana."

The pollster, Selzer & Associates, explains the results:

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Selzer and Company, a Des Moines, Iowa -based public opinion research firm, conducted the poll by telephone from Oct. 21 – 24.

Peterson, who was originally expected to cruise to a large victory over an unknown and under-funded challenger, appears vulnerable, said J. Ann Selzer, the company’s

“This is a very close race,” Selzer said. “I would cast the two-point lead Peterson has as fragile.

A lot of things can happen in terms of who shows up on Election Day that can change the outcome of this race.”

Ballard draws his strength among male voters and whites, which he leads by 8% and 12%, respectively. Peterson draws his strength from female voters and black voters, which he leads by 10% and 63%, respectively. Particularly troubling for Peterson is his approval rating. He has the approval of just 49% of the voters, making him extremely vulnerable. Democratic political science professor Bill Blomquist blamed the under-representation of Democrats in the polls for Peterson's poor showing. He tells the Star that "Democrats in Indianapolis tend to be under-represented in polls, which skew toward white and upper-income voters."

There is also very good news in the poll for Republican council candidates. According to the poll, 41% plan to vote for a Republican council candidate compared to just 31% who said they planned to vote for a Democratic candidate. After reading tonight's poll results, state and local Republicans should be giving themselves a good kick in the ass for writing off Greg Ballard's campaign. He hasn't raised anywhere near enough money to purchase any money for TV ads, let alone less costly radio ads. It has become all too apparent that certain Republican leaders are quietly backing Mayor Peterson's re-election because they are being rewarded financially to throw this election.


Anonymous said...

I like the idea of third parties, but damn if that Fred Peterson couldn't end up ruining this whole damn thing. Plenty of blame to spread around, of course, but that five percent looks so good. Then again, it could be that many of the Respondents chose Fred Peterson thinking they were choosing Bart Peterson. If Ballard loses by the margin of Fred Peterson's votes, that's what I'll keep telling myself to feel better.

Sir Hailstone said...

Complaints from Democrats about "improper stratification" begin in 5....4....3....2....

Anonymous said...

"It is become all too apparent that certain Republican leaders are quietly backing Mayor Peterson's re-election because they are being rewarded financially to throw this election."

It makes me sick that people care more about lining their own pockets than the well-being of their community.

I guess being Republican means nothing to these people, does it.

Whatever happened to people with authenticity and honor who choose to run for office as service to their country? It seems to rarely happen anymore.

Anonymous said...

If you think it's bad in Indy, you should come on down to Evansville.

Here, we have so-called Republican leaders actually donating thousands of dollars to Weinzapfel.

Anonymous said...

Okay folks-one for the little guy with no loot due to taxation-all you need to do is show up and vote for Ballard.

Anonymous said...

Well, at this rate, Peterson, Bart will win on Saturday. No need for an election.

Anonymous said...

" Please Vote "

Channel 13 and Indy Star are reporting Greg Ballard at 39% and Bart at 41%. This is a statistical dead heat. Please tell all you know to get out on election day and
Vote for Greg Ballard. We are too close to loose this election.

Anonymous said...

This has been going on in the Republican and Democratic parties in Marion County for decades. Money trump party but it appears that the wealthy white Republicrats, better known as The Downtown Klan will be s..t out of luck along with their counterpart, The Ghetto Mafia if Ballard pulls this thing off.
Peterson may pull Julia Carson's turf but he's going to get hammered in the outlying Townships.
Look for fraud on an immense scale in the heavily Democratic precincts.

Anonymous said...

It helps that Ballards volunteers are being threatened and intimidated by certain political types.
This type of behavior is accepted bt the democrats?
Wow! Makes one want to stop helping the GOP when people are being shot at for delivering a sign.

Anonymous said...

Indianapolis - Metro Police are warning park goers after two separate attacks on women. The two victims say the man who attacked them caught them by surprise. The attacks happened at Ellenberger Park located on the east side of Indianapolis.

"I didn't see him. He came up behind me," said Rebecca, attack victim.

The Indianapolis teenager survived a surprise attack in a city park in September. She says a man came out of nowhere as she waited for a friend.

"A guy came up behind me and hit me in the head. I fell back. He straddled me and tried to put his hands down my pants," she said.

Two joggers scared away Rebecca's attacker.

Every day you'll find people at the park with their dogs, at the playground or just going for a walk. "That would be the place to meet friend, go swimming, have fun. Now it's a place you have to watch out for," she said.

The second attack happened just last week. A woman jogged on the trail when she says a man on a bicycle fitting the same description approached her. The man touched her inappropriately.

"Grabbed her buttocks as she was running alone and took off running again," said Sgt. Matthew Mount, IMPD.

Both victims gave similar descriptions of their attacker. Police warn people, especially women, not to go it alone in the park.

"He's about six feet tall, clean cut, Caucasian, wearing a white shirt and blue jeans," said Rebecca.

"People approaching, be aware they are coming from. If anything looks suspicious, go somewhere safe," said Sgt. Mount.

"I only go there with a group of people. I don't go anywhere near the creek," said Rebecca, who won't be visiting the park alone anytime soon. She wants the man who attacked her caught and punished.

Police say park goers should never be alone. Take a friend or even a dog if necessary.

Call 262-TIPS with any information related to this case.

This is "Winning the war on crime"
according to the mayor and sheriff?

Anonymous said...

Although Bart will win by a smaller than usual margin, he will win but he can blame himself for failing to put some distance from those 2 democrat disgraces, Monroe Gray and Ron Gibson.

Anonymous said...

No, the complaints about stratification won't come, Hail...


I got one of the calls a few days ago from Selzer. The questioner was ill-prepared, tried to lead me, and fumbled three of the questions because she talked so fast.

And, the questions are poorly worded.

Nonetheless, I'll give you that this election has tightened up. A lot.

But, this poll is not an accurate reflection. I think it's more like an 8-point lead...and that's about as close as it will gete.

Which means all four of the at-larges will win, King Ro by only a small amount, and the Dems will lose the district council seats...or, put more simply: probably a 15-14 or 16-13 Democratic council.

A lot could change, but late, big, earth-shaking events don't often happen in a mayoral race.

Wilson46201 said...

Lest it be forgotten: as of Friday, Oct. 12th, Bart Peterson's campaign still had almost $1.5 million to spend by Election Day...

Anonymous said...

Lest it be forgotten: as of Friday, Oct. 12th, Bart Peterson's campaign still had almost $1.5 million to spend by Election Day...

And we all know how much booze, smokes and happy meals that 1.5 mil can buy!

Anonymous said...

Mr. Ballard,
When you get elected, kindly remember that those of us who voted you in are the REAL GOP, not the slackers who hold leadership positions within the county party. I speak of course about John, Ping, Walker, et sic ad nauseum.

After you win, I imagine a 2nd campaign will result, which would be to depose those RINOS, clean house, and make an effective political party as opposed to Dems wearing Republican clothing.

Sometimes you actually do have to destroy something in order to save it.

Anonymous said...

If real money wins elections, every millionaire in this country would be buying a public office.
Voters win elections, so Republicans and friends get our an vote or vote by absentee ballot for a change in the city's leadership.

Anonymous said...

Yo Melyssa. You're right, "being Republican" has NEVER meant anything to those in power. Nor has "being Democrat" for that matter.

Those in Marion Co "be Republican" because for years and years that's where the power was, because that's who the demographic would elect. Once it changed, and seemingly abruptly (though not really) in the late 90's to early 00's, the powerful couldn't very well do a public about face party-wise, but they did what they have ALWAYS done, just surreptitiously. They put their money where they could buy influence, legal work kickbacks, and those most lucrative business and development contracts. Political parties are pretext fronts-- what can get voters to the polls, and you support whoever can get more of their voterrs there and pander to them, whether they're "conservative Christians" or "tax reformers" or "minority interests"

You've been a novice, now you know. That's the game baby.

You think the Republicans in this county or anywhere else ever stood for "smaller government" "limited taxes and spending" or "family values" for that matter?

Look at the record. Never has been, never will be.

Dream on with your principles or idealism. Or, in the alternative, welcome to the real world. Forget ever paying lower taxes. Just set yourself up a WBE and get in line for some fat governement quota contract. Pay all them taxes and have plenty left to live large.

Anonymous said...

wilson, he can spend it ALL on tv ads. they are just making people even angrier. the mom talking about the school is HILARIOUS! the charter schools are doing worse than IPS. people aren't as dumb as the mayor thinks. oh, and glad to see one united employee got a job. how about those who have their houses in foreclosure because they had to take much lower wage jobs (see heartland crossing). i'm not one of the "bart lies" crowd but he does.

we know how you guys are planning to pay people to taxi voters to the polls. what, not enough volunteers?

Anonymous said...

I intend to vote for the mayor [I think] but everytime I get a mailer about charter schools or see the commercial on tv re: charter schools, I start to waver. Charter schools are a miserable failure and only erodes the public schools in the county. Bart should keep his mouth shut about charter schools.

Anonymous said...

I literally stand in utter amazement at the support the black community gives Peterson. I'm not sure what my brothers and sisters are thinking but if the amount of violent crime, high taxes and the fact that Peterson has done nothing in your neighborhoods is worth your vote then cast your lot with Peterson.
Don't let our so-called "leaders" tell you how to vote. They are using you and your neighbors to line their own pockets. They have taken your vote for granted and given nothing to you in return.
Look around you and ask yourself if YOUR neighborhood is better of today that it was 4 years ago.