Friday, October 26, 2007

More On Star Poll

A Star poll showing Mayor Peterson locked in a tight race with Republican Greg Ballard identifies property taxes as the leading issue. According to the poll, 44% of the respondents identified property taxes as the most important issue in this election. Those respondents favor Ballard by a healthy margin of 45%-34%. Oddly, those who identified crime as the most important issue favor Peterson over Ballard by a 44%-37% margin.

The sad reality of this poll is that Ballard requires a greater polarization of white voters in the county in order to pull off a victory. Black voters are lining up with near monolithic support for Peterson the Democrat as usual, with only 10% saying they will support Ballard. By comparison, Ballard's lead among white voters is only 47%-35%. Not surprisingly, Marion Co. Democratic Chairman Mike O'Connor is screaming foul over the poll results, claiming it under represents black voters. This is Amos Brown's cue to spend his entire radio show this afternoon telling his audience that there is a conspiracy to deprive black voters of representation in Indianapolis as a racial appeal to get black voters to come out in large numbers to support Peterson. The poll also finds a gender gap. Ballard has a lead of 44%-38% among men, but Peterson has an even big lead among women voters, who favor him by a 46%-34% margin.

Turnout will have a major impact on the outcome of the election. Ballard is favored by independent voters by a 38%-32% margin. Turnout in municipal elections is typically very low. The poll says, among those who have already made up their mind for sure, Peterson is leading 52%-45%. Unless a significantly higher percentage of voters turn out on election day than is normal, Ballard's hopes of unseating Peterson will fail. Marion Co. Election authorities have recently indicated there have been a higher number of new registrations than is normal. That might suggest a higher turnout is in the offing.

UPDATE: Sure enough, Amos Brown took the bait from Mike O'Connor and is devoting his afternoon radio talk show to explaining this big conspiracy against black voters contrived by the Star in putting out this poll on the mayor's race. What a one-trick pony.


Anonymous said...

Your analysis is the best I've read thus far. Your observation of the Independent head-to-head in the poll, is about where I think the overall race will end.

As posted yesterday, I got this poll call and another one within 20 minutes...the other one was from The Hart Organization in DC, a well-known polling firm often tied to Democratic causes.

The Star poll was hurriedly-conducted, somuch so that i had to ask the questioner to slow down four times. I couldn't understand her. Some of the questions were crafted in a manner to invite certain responses. Made me wondeer if the polling customer (Star) was picking a fight to generate news. Hmmmmmmm.

I've since done some research on the polling firm, and their reputation is, let's just say, not great. Why The Star chose them is beyond me.

What kind of reputable polling firm puts out results, and within an hour, when the results hit the wires, recalls the results, recalculates and inserts new numbers?

Even so, I do think the race has tightened up--to where it was always going to be, about an 8-point Peterson win.

Turnout is critical. City-wide, if turnout tops 30 percent, it'll be historically high for a municipal. If it crosses 20 percent in Center, that's dramatic.

For what it's worth, when called, I refused to answer the race question. I don't know if that disqualified all my olther responses.

Anonymous said...

Unusual number of new registrations, huh?

I guess the cemeteries are going to vote more this year than they usually do.

Anonymous said...

I'm relieved to know that Peterson has been able increase the quality of life for African Americans in this town during his 8 past years in office.
With crime and taxes, not to mention blighted neighborhoods, why would African American cast their lot with a Mayor who has only shown contempt for them.
Sometimes things just don't make a lot of sense do they?

Anonymous said...

I certainly hope that the State Attorney General is prepared to deal with fraud issues that are surely to come from precincts in Center Township.

Anonymous said...

Please look at the photo of Peterson and the photo of Ballard on the front page of the Star today.
If you knew absolutely nothing about either Peterson or Ballard and only had these two photos to cast your vote by who would you vote for?
Most of you cannot remember Indiana Senator Homer Capehart but if you do then you'll find that the Peterson photo looks a lot like Capehart (minus the cigar).
Birch Bayh upset the Capehart Machine by using images like these.

The similarity is just downright scary. Put a stoggie in Bart's mouth and he looks just like Capehart.
The Star took great care in picking these two photos.

Anonymous said...

Saturday, October 27, 2:00 pm, Monument Circle, Indianapolis (RAIN OR SHINE)

Another protest is brewing just in time for the coming elections because the public has had enough empty rhetoric, posturing and inaction by many of their elected representatives. We've asked for action and changes to our tax policies including the total elimination of property taxes. Further, we demand that all levels of government cut spending, prioritize expenses and find ways to do more with less, just as citizens are being asked to do. We will tolerate nothing less than transparency, accountability and ethical behavior by ALL of our elected representatives at EVERY level of government.

Event Details
On Saturday, October 27th, there will be a massive protest at Monument Circle, starting at 2 p.m. This event will unite all Hoosiers, whether Republicans, Democrats, or or poor...homeowners or renters.

Event: Tax Scammed Saturday
Date: Saturday October 27th
Time: 2 p.m.
Location: Monument Circle - Downtown Indianapolis
Events: Public Speech Forum - south side of the monument
Activist Leaders / Public officials - north side of the monument.

Informational booths, speaker forums and various events will be set up around Monument Circle. These are frightening times for our city and state so scary costumes and grim reapers are welcomed. The time is now to vote out the corruption of our city and send a strong message to our state representatives that property taxes must be eliminated! We are spreading the word to every neighborhood in this city as this promises to be a protest and party like no other!

Anonymous said...

all of this analysis of race is really quite odd. if you look at the facts in marion county, there are some urban legends that need to be dispelled.

first, marion county is approximately 68% causasian. i don't recall the number but registered voters represent a slightly higher percentage of causasians. democrats do not win because blacks are controlling the vote. are they good at getting out the vote for candidates that they feel represent their interests? it looks like it. but there still have to be a whole lot of white people voting for, say, julia carson too. it's not just center township.

people are going "whoa" about the lack of support among black men for republicans. if you look at any broad demographic group, black men vote in low numbers, especially young black men. this is, at best, a curiosity.

is marion county now majority democrat? one might think so from this years primary but, then again, at that time republicans didn't have a lot to motivate them to go to the polls. in presidential elections, republicans still win marion county. people scratch to vote for lugar and he carries the county handily. dickerson, without party support, made a good run at carson and the 7th district is drawn to keep the most heavily republican area of marion couty out of it. hmm. add back in the extreme northeast including geist, and see what happens.

oh, why do i bring this up? the whole democrat spin today of the poll is wrong and didn't count the black people is just ludicrous. if you had the julia carson machine energized this year, maybe there would be something to think about there, but again it probably isn't as powerful as people think. but when you have black clergy and citizens in neighborhood meetings speaking against the mayor and the CCC, this is not a normal year.

we are all tax payers and potential crime victims. concerned citizens, irrespective of the color of their skin, want their money used for good services, safe streets, and government without corruption.

i don't think the poll is wrong, do you?

Anonymous said...

11:54, Excellent post. Statistically, the traditional black vote is getting older much like the white vote. And you are right, younger black men do not vote as was the case a couple of decades ago. I think this election will tell us much about how well the black Democratic stalwarts can deliver when it's all on the line.
We'll soon see whether this "machine" is in reality an urban myth.

Anonymous said...

11:54 check the election records ..John Kerry carried Marion County by 25,000 votes.