Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Daniels Vulnerable A Year Out From Election

There's no way to sugarcoat the numbers in WISH-TV's latest poll for Governor Mitch Daniels. He has the support of less than 40% of the electorate, and the front-runner for the Democratic nomination is nipping at his heels. It's still more than a year to the 2008 general election, but Gov. Daniels will need that much time to improve his standing with the electorate.

According to the poll, only 39% of the voters in Indiana believe Daniels deserves to be re-elected, while nearly as many, 37%, want him replaced. The remaining quarter of the voters are taking a wait-and-see approach. Those numbers are even worse for him in his home county of Marion where 39% favor replacing Daniels to only 36% who favor his re-election.

When Daniels is matched against the Democratic front-runner, former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, he holds an eight-point, 46%-38% lead over her. Daniels is running strongest among 30-40 year-old voters, who favor him by a 50%-34% margin over Thompson. His support is weakest among the youngest voters between 18 and 29. Thompson edges him among those voters by a 43%-40% margin.

The big fundraising advantage Jim Schellinger has over his Democratic gubernatorial opponents has had little impact on his progress to date. Jill Long Thompson holds a wide lead over both Schellinger and Senate Democratic Leader Richard Young. Thompson is favored by 41% of Democratic voters. Young has the support of 16% of Democratic voters, and Schellinger comes in dead last with the support of only 10% of Democratic voters.


Anonymous said...

Jill Long Thompson will be the Democratic nominee. She knows how to raise money, has the most experience and the name ID to get it done. She is the best person to take on Daniels.

It is another example of how the unions and the old party structure doesn't hold sway anymore.

Anonymous said...

6:41 has an interesting observation, but I doubt it's based on much...

I'm likely to vote for Jill, for all kinds of reasons. But I am not sure she can win.

Just like the Mayoral poll being bandied about, I doubt this poll is a true reflection of the electorate--in any sense.

Mitch isn't popular now. But he has quietly put together a very impressive list of endorsements from across-the-board. He's raised a ton o' cash.

Those two factors typically win out. Damn it.

Anonymous said...

A poll with 13.5 months to go...big whoop.
Nov '08, Daniels by 8%.

Anonymous said...

As a life long republican who has NEVER voted for a Democrat for governor not even Evan Bayh, I would vote for a pet goat before I would vote for Mitch Daniels.

Anonymous said...

politics has been turned inside out and upside down. whoever figures that out will win elections.

Anonymous said...

There are times that I wish Jen from TDW was on our side! She would know how to "suger coat" this to make it a positive!