Monday, May 14, 2012

Donnelly Poll Shows Tied Senate Race

The first post-primary poll conducted for the Democratic Senate campaign of U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, to no surprise, claims the race is tied. According to a Global Strategies poll, the two candidates split 40% of the vote each with 20% undecided. The good news for Mourdock is that he's still running even with Donnelly despite the poll's claim that his unfavorable rating is three times higher than Donnelly's. The poll found 37% had an unfavorable opinion of Mourdock compared to a 12% unfavorable rating for Donnelly. More of the poll's respondents gave a higher favorable rating to Mourdock, 36 to 28%. Given that the poll likely used push poll questioning, you can extrapolate that Mourdock actually holds a lead over Donnelly. The poll claimed to have a margin of error rate of plus or minus four points.

UPDATE: HoosierPundit reminds us that early polling in the 2010 Senate race between Dan Coats and Brad Ellsworth showed the two virtually tied. Coats won less than 40% of the Republican primary vote compared to Mourdock's 61% landslide win over long-term incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar.


CircleCityScribe said...

I never heard of or even knew that Richard Murdock had any opponent in the general election.

-Since that guy paid for the poll, it was nice of them to give that guy "hope". Unfortunately, that "hopey-changey thing" is NOT working out for us!!!

varangianguard said...

Talk about "putting lipstick on a pig"...

I disagree with your conclusions about Secy. Mourdock's current position. He has his work cut out for him.

CorrND said...

(a) Dan Coats only got 40% of the primary vote because he was running against 4 opponents. In that case, 40% is a pretty good showing. Mourdock got the field cleared for him and ran head to head with Lugar. Comparing their vote %'s is meaningless.

(b) No matter what early polling suggested, Dan Coats running away with the general election against Brad Ellsworth should not have been surprising given Coats' credentials, particularly that he had already served as Senator for 10 years. Mourdock has no such service record.

Smart money is on Mourdock to win, but don't think that he's going to be able to steamroll Donnelly the way Coats' did Ellsworth. I would be surprised if national Democrat money didn't pour into the state to support Donnelly. He probably represents their best shot to pick off a seat this year.

Christ In Me said...

I don't see how Donnelly can ever overcome his vote for Obamacare. It destroyed Ellsworth, and it is going to destroy Donnelly too. It was political suicide, if you want to represent Indiana.