Monday, November 02, 2015

Low Voter Turnout Likely To Cost Democrats Control Of Indianapolis City-County Council

Early voting is over in Marion County and while voting picked up considerably in the closing days before tomorrow's municipal election, there were 6,318 fewer votes cast to date than during the 2011 election when Mayor Greg Ballard's re-election margin over Democrat Melina Kennedy was only about 7,500 votes in an election where 30% of the registered voters participated. This year's election appears destined to fall below the 26% turnout number in the 2007 election when a little-known, unfunded Ballard upset Mayor Bart Peterson by a little more than 5,300 votes.

It's too soon for Joe Hogsett's campaign to panic about his chances in tomorrow's election, but it appears that his likely victory could come without the Democratic majority on the City-County Council he expected to have during his first term in office. Unless tomorrow's unseasonably warm weather leads to a much larger turnout than we've seen to date, Republicans appear poised to capture at least 13 of the contested City-County Council seats, one more than they need to recapture control of the 25-member council downsized by four from its current count following the elimination of the four at-large council seats currently held by Democrats.

After early voting concluded today, there were 2,680 fewer walk-in voters and 3,638 fewer mail-in absentee ballots cast compared to four years ago. That's 31% fewer walk-in voters and 40% fewer mail-in absentee ballots than cast in 2011. The absentee ballot numbers will improve slightly as late-arriving ballots are received, but that number will likely be no more than about 300 votes. If the early voting trends hold out, election turnout will fall below 25%, which is very bad news for Democratic hopes of winning control of the City-County Council.

Here's why that turnout percentage is so critical to Democrats. By boosting turnout by just 4 percentage points in 2011, Democrats were able to capture 11,910 more votes for their mayoral and council candidates through a larger number of straight ticket voters, 61,570 in 2011 compared to 49,660 in 2007. By comparison, Republicans picked up only 2,232 more straight-ticket votes from the higher turnout vote in 2011 than their mayoral and council candidates received in 2007, 49,423 compared to 47,191 in 2007. Making matters worse for the Democrats is the absence of a Libertarian mayoral candidate. Their candidates captured 2,677 and 3,787 votes, respectively, in the 2011 and 2007 mayoral elections. Conventional wisdom says Libertarians candidates draw more votes from a Republican candidate than a Democratic candidate.

One big difference between this year's election and the last two mayoral elections is the absence of any independent polling data. Late polls in 2007 showed Ballard, who was outspent by Peterson by a 10-1 margin, running about even with the incumbent candidate who had been expected to win the race by a landslide. In 2011, polling data showed Ballard with a comfortable lead over Kennedy, who polled much better on election day than she did in any polls taken prior to the election. The higher turnout boosted her vote total, allowing her to hold Ballard to the same 51% winning margin he won by in 2007 despite having high name recognition and a large campaign war chest to finance a very visible campaign compared to his shoe-string budget in 2007. The higher voter turnout proved decisive in allowing Democrats to recapture control of the City-County Council, which the Republicans had won back from the Democrats in 2007.

If Democrats fail to win control of the City-County Council or win the mayor's race by a significant percentage, there will be a lot of hand-wringing and finger-pointing in Democratic circles. Some critics are already blaming Hogsett's campaign for taking black voters for granted. Hogsett's strategy clearly was focused on winning over voters who like the job Ballard has been doing for the past 8 years as opposed to winning over those who see many shortcomings in Ballard's two-term tenure. Many blacks have felt slighted by Ballard for the past 8 years, but knowledgeable sources say Hogsett failed to tap into their deep discontent towards the current city administration. Hogsett never once criticized Ballard's record as mayor, and he and his Republican opponent, Chuck Brewer, appeared to agree on every major issue discussed during the campaign. Some think Hogsett also hurt himself among black voters when he refused to pledge to retain IMPD Chief Rick Hite during an appearance with his opponent on black radio last week during which his Republican opponent vowed to retain Hite. Hogsett seemed more worried about offending the FOP, which endorsed him, than assuaging black voters.

Brewer's greatest failing has been his inability to distinguish himself from his Democratic opponent. Although he's been a resident of Indianapolis for only four years and has never run for political office before, he spent much of the campaign hitching himself to Ballard's coattails and trying to connect to political insiders, while Hogsett, the insider's insider, spent the last two months of the campaign trying to cast himself as an outsider who would take on the downtown insiders. Despite Hogsett's higher name recognition and 4-1 campaign spending advantage, his track record of winning campaigns is not good. He won his first race by upsetting then-Mayor Bill Hudnut in a Secretary of State's race and then lost three successive races for the U.S. Senate, Congress and Attorney General in races where his political opponents easily painted him as a professional politician constantly running for office and running with a different wife in each successive campaign. Brewer waited until the closing week of the campaign to question Hogsett's obvious hypocrisy, which most believe was too little too late.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lead-in should be more like: Elimination of Four At-large Council Seats Likely to Cost Democrats Control of Indianapolis City-County Council. The only reason I can see that would break the historical Republican voting patterns of Marion County is disgust at the rebranding undertaken by the national Republican Party. When my straight-ballot voting, NRA member, anti-immigrant, long time Republican neighbor now calls himself an Independent, it is probably time to re-think how others may be re-evaluating the GOP.

Anonymous said...

I am very saddened to read this particular blog post, Gary. You've been on target so many times before I give your analysis credence. You are correct that Lying Joe Hogsett failed to tap into the anger of an African American community marginalized and neglected by Republican Greg Ballard and MCRCC Kyle Walker. You are correct that Hogsett sure seemed to convey he would retain the illegal Ballard schemes and that Brewer never did distinguish himself from his opponent.

If tomorrow evening reveals Joe Hogsett did a Melina and that the establishment Republicans (which describes every one of them) have Council control, there MUST be condemnation of the Marion County Democrat machine because this "race" was theirs to lose from the outset. Joe HAS lost many elections and I can't help it but the Howdy Dowdy persona is just so nowhere and I think that no matter how much Hogsett trods on the worn path of King Park.... Hogsett just does not excite. Brewer is no John Kennedy himself and has seemed out of step with the pulse of the voter... no surprise there.

My predictions remain constant: It does not matter at all who wins as Indy Mayor and it certainly as hell does not matter at all who becomes a Councilor. Corrupt Marion County "Republican" Greg Ballard proved that amply over the last eight years or so with his multiple unethical/illegal/corrupt (take your pick or select them all) crony deals and the Councilors just sat back and allowed it all to occur. This is the precedent the next Mayor will follow and the course the CC Councilors will continue.

Gary R. Welsh said...

There's a part of me that leads me to believe Hogsett would prefer a Republican-controlled council. That may come as a surprise to some, but I know him well enough to know he wouldn't at all be bothered having a Republican-controlled council to provide cover for him from time to time.

Paul K. Ogden said...

This is great analysis. I agree with your thoughts on turnout as well as the failures of the Hogsett and Brewer campaigns for the reasons cited. One thing I think that is left out of your analysis though is that Marion County is significantly more Democratic today than in 2011. We've had two intervening elections (2012 and 2014) in which the Republicans were not even competitive in the county. The GOP council baselines are not as strong today as they were in the 2010 data that Brooks used to draw the map.

In my prediction that the council will be 14-11 Democrat, I tried to factor in the improving Democratic fortunes in the county. The races that Democratic improvement will show up in, I'm frankly not sure. My prediction in the Shattuck and Mascari race frankly have me concerned. I know Shattuck's district extremely well since it's my part of town. When Ds get any kind of turnout in the district, it's not even a competitive area for Republicans. As far as Mascari, his opponent seems to have put considerable work into winning the swing district. Further, the near southside, including Beech Grove, is not trending more Democratic as is the other areas of the county, or at least as not as rapidly.

Regardless, I agree that the council elections represent a missed opportunity for the Democrats. With strong turnout, the Ds could have won 15-17 seats, possibly more. I don't see that happening.

Anonymous said...

If the Dems win a majority in the council, I wonder what rule the Republicans will change next...

Flogger said...

If African-Americans are displeased by Hogshitt, they should look at their own Elected Council Representatives. What exactly has the Elected African-American Councilors done for their communities? I suppose for that matter what any Elected Councilor accomplished that is meaningful.

It will not make a difference who is elected. The Republicrat Party here in Marion County will be the winner. Ballard had the chance when he was first elected, but decided to ride in the back seat while the Crony-Capitalists drove him around. It will be interesting to see where Ballard pops up once he is out of office. A job at Ivy Tech perhaps.

The Media and others will lament the low turnout and blame the the voters. They will not address the cause of the apathy. Both parties choose "safe" candidates that will go along with the Crony-Capitalist system.

Anonymous said...

today was the first election in 30 years that I was no longer eligible to vote in Marion county.

So you all up there have a nice evening! Don't forget to pay your taxes now, ya'hear!

Sir Hailstone said...

At 30% precincts reporting, and it appears a mix of wards have reported and it looks like a 60-40 in favor of Mayor-elect Hogshit. Couple interesting things I'm seeing - one, the straight ticket voting seems to line up perfectly with the Mayoral results. Tells me there's not a lot of scratching going on.

Odd though is the precincts in Monroe Gray's district are slow to report. Hmmmmmm.....

Sir Hailstone said...

56% reporting and it's appears to be 12-14 seats for the GOP so far. Christine Scales is up by a few hundred which is the usual margin there. Bob Lutz and Ben Hunter just a bit short with half of their precincts in.

Sir Hailstone said...

"The GOP council baselines are not as strong today as they were in the 2010 data that Brooks used to draw the map."

David Brooks behaves more like a Democrat.

Anonymous said...

You were wrong on this one.

Gary R. Welsh said...

I was wrong, but for the wrong reason. The Ds fully expected to win the 2nd and 3rd Districts, with an outside chance of knocking off Jeff Miller. Low turnout hurt them in those races they believed they had to win. Better turnout would have made a big difference in those two races. Hunter's and Lutz' districts weren't even races the Rs considered at risk of losing or the Democrats anticipated winning. The Rs messed up badly by not taking these two races seriously enough.