Friday, November 16, 2007

7th District Democratic Primary Heating Up

Former U.S. Rep. Andy Jacobs' (D) unexpected, early endorsement of Andre Carson to replace an ailing U.S. Rep. Julia Carson has set off a flurry of phone calls among 7th District Democratic leaders. A Democratic source tells me there are now no fewer than eight (8) Democrats pondering a bid for the 7th District seat. With her health rapidly declining and the increasing likelihood she will not be able to return to work, there is also a possibility of a special election, which could coincide with Indiana's May primary. The Democrats will meet early next year to slate a candidate. In the event of a special election, the slated candidate would be running to fill the balance of Carson's term against whoever the Republicans slate, and for the right to run as the Democratic candidate in the November general election. It is unlikely all the losing candidates in slating will drop their bids to become their party's general election nominee. The field could be quite crowded.

You've heard the names of Carl Drummer, Carolene Mays, Greg Porter, Joanne Sanders, Melina Kennedy, David Orentlicher, Dr. Woody Myers and Robin Winston, but there is yet another serious candidate who may emerge. A source says Terry Thurman, executive VP of the United Auto Workers, is seriously considering a bid for the seat. Thurman is a former DNC member known to several prominent, national Democrats, including the Clintons, Al Gore and John Edwards. The source believes Thurman would get considerable labor support and money if he decided to run. Another surprise candidate is Marion Co. Treasurer Mike Rodman, who tells the Star today he plans to run if Carson doesn't run for re-election.

Sources indicate Democrats are fuming over Jacobs' announced support for Carson yesterday. They are thoroughly convinced Carson intends to wait until the last possible moment to make the announcement she is stepping aside to make it difficult for other potential candidates to compete against Carson in slating. As a consequence, candidates aren't going to wait for her announcement to jump into the race. The potentially divisive primary could make it difficult for the ultimate Democratic nominee to win in November, particularly if the African-American community is disappointed by the outcome.

Things are also very uncertain on the GOP side. While first-term Rep. Jon Elrod has already announced his candidacy, some Republicans are waiting to see what Eric Dickerson will do. Dickerson has extremely high name recognition from his close race against Carson last year. A GOP opponent like Elrod may be forced to spend big bucks in a primary to overcome Dickerson's advantage. Recall that Dickerson, without going through GOP slating last year, crushed the GOP's slated candidate, Ron Franklin. Dickerson, however, has been nearly invisible since his loss to Carson last year. A prominent 7th District Republican, who supported Dickerson's 2006 bid and was hopeful Dickerson would run again, told me recently that Dickerson had ignored repeated phone messages he left with him inquiring about his 2008 intentions.

On one other note, I just couldn't let this Jim Shella statement on his blog pass without comment. Shella, writing about Carson, says "The voters knew Carson was ill when they re-elected her so no one should be surprised with the current circumstance." He adds, "Of course, Julia knew she was sick, too." "It didn't have to end this way." Sorry, Jim, but most of the voters did not know Carson was ill during the last election. Blogs like this one tried to draw attention to the health issue, but mainstream reporters like Shella refused to report on it. It wasn't until after the election that any of them openly discussed it. And most of the mainstream reporters have been very slow to discuss obvious efforts by she and her staff to cover up the extent of her current health problems.

17 comments:

Wilson46201 said...

Is Eric Dickerson even interested in running again?

Advance Indiana said...

I have no clue, Wilson. It's been a very long time since I've heard from him.

Jacob Perry (The Scribe) said...

That's funny, I seem to not have any problems getting in touch with Eric. All one has to do is call his cell phone, so I wonder just how "prominent" this "7th District Republican" really is.

Perhaps Eric just doesn't want to talk to him?

He's interested, and I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't run. He's currently weighing whether he really wants to but his business interests aside and dedicate another year to campaigning, on top of at least two further years on top of that while in office.

Give it another week or two.

Advance Indiana said...

Jacob, It isn't the kind of person you just blow off I can assure you. And it's someone who would have no idea who you are.

Mike Bowman said...

What is interesting is how much advantage the winner would get in a special election and they take the seat - then they have to turn around and run again in Nov.

Would the loser from the other party be the default opponent for Nov. or would the losing party pick someone else ?

Would the new incumbent be able to use the power of the seat to win a second time ?

Would someone from the winning party who lost to the winner turn around and run against the winner in a Nov. election.

The plot is VERY Thick.

Advance Indiana said...

It is possible to have a different winner in the special election than the winning candidate in the primary if candidates decide to challenge the slated candidate.

Anonymous said...

I just happened to speak to Dickerson over the phone. By accident really.

I work for an insurance company and one of our customers was getting their car repaired at Dickerson's body shop. I placed a call to the shop to discuss the claim and he answered.

I told him I voted for him and hoped he'd run again. He said "We're looking into it" or something like that.

That was early summer I think.

Anonymous said...

How could you call Dickerson at work...did he bankrupt his car dealership??

Anonymous said...

WIlson is obsessed with Eric Dickerson.
Must be love!eetzxuma

Anonymous said...

5:05...He got rid of the dealership. I don't know much about his new business.

One of our elderly black customers told me "Mr. Dickerson is repairing my car." She gave me a cell number to call to discuss the adjuster's est.

Eric Dickerson answered. His voice was familiar so I asked if it was the same Eric Dickerson who ran for Congress. He said it was.

I don't know any more about his business than that. Our conversation was very quick.

Anonymous said...

As one of Julia Carson's constituents, I am just greatful that she hasn't been voting. How pathetic is that?

indyernie said...

Wilson46201 said...
"Is Eric Dickerson even interested in running again?"

Wilson, I'm sure that if and when Dickerson decides you will be one of the LAST to know.

7th District Voter said...

More plantation politics by the Democrat Party. If Andy Jacobs is responsible for giving us Julia Carson in congress, why would we take another one of his endorsements from the same family?

First scammed by Patrice Adbullah, and now Andre Carson. Andre Carson needs to remain on the Council and get some experience in governing. The voters in district 15 deserve better. Julia Carson has been a total embarassment on Capitol Hill. Andy Jacobs has failed to acknowledge this.

If Jacobs and Carson think they will dictate who will be elected in 2008, they have a nother thing coming.

The field of candidates on both sides of the political aisle will be crowded with contenders. The 7th district seat belongs to the people and not Jacobs or Carson.

Mr. Jacobs is wearing blinders just like Wilson. He has failed to admit or to acknowledge the corruption in the Carson administration as Trustee, the Peterson administration in the city, along with Monroe Gray's ethical violations.

I don't need Jacobs or Wilson to tell me who should represent us in congress. Jacobs thinks he should control the African American in the seat. When Carson retires, Jacobs needs to go with her!

Wilson46201 said...

The above commenter is perennial candidate Jocelyn Tandy who has run for and lost races against Andy Jacobs, Julia Carson and Carl Drummer. She is a bitter, sore loser...

Anonymous said...

Wilson46201 said...

The above commenter is perennial candidate Jocelyn Tandy . . .She is a bitter, sore loser...

That does not mean her statements are wrong.

She is as right as you think you are.

Jacob Perry (The Scribe) said...

Jacob, It isn't the kind of person you just blow off I can assure you. And it's someone who would have no idea who you are.

Gary, I imagine you'd be shocked both about how few people know who I am, and how little I really care.

Not everyone is so obsessed with recognition and self-promotion, but that might be a difficult concept for you to understand.

You see, I've spent my years getting my hands dirty fighting in the trenches, not simply writing about it.

Advance Indiana said...

Jacob, I was working in the trenches before you were even old enough to know what the trenches are. You don't have a fraction of the political experience I have under my belt. Don't even attempt to hold yourself out as being in my league.