Friday, November 02, 2007

Feigenbaum's Blockbuster Reporting On Carson's Future

While other area political reporters have been sitting on their butts, the Indiana Legislative Insight's Ed Feigenbaum has been conducting some in-depth research into Rep. Julia Carson's current health problems and what it means for her political future and that of others. His reporting this week contains a fascinating political insight into what may be shaping up as Indiana's most interesting congressional race next year. Feigenbaum, well aware of the heat bloggers like myself have taken for even trying to have a reasonable debate over Carson's future, offered this to critics: "Even though we’re going to run through the facts of political life for you, that shouldn’t serve as justification for folks to label us as racist (as commenters on many local blogs have intimated of those who suggest that Rep. Carson can’t do her job, should resign, or not seek re-election)." Now, let's get to details. Here's a highlight of what Feigenbaum has to share with us:

  • Speculation about Carson's health woes will be further fueled next Tuesday when Carson fails to cast a vote in person. According to Feigenbaum, Carson will vote absentee.
  • The Indiana Democratic Party is funding a direct mail piece for Carson's grandson, Andre Carson, in his District 15 Indianapolis city-county council race. He is running unopposed. This news is not likely to sit well with Democrats in hotly-contested races who are receiving no assistance from the state party.
  • Local Democrats are growing restless. They believe Carson may be simply pretending to seek re-election with a plan to drop out at the last minute, allowing Andre Carson to be the only candidate prepared with papers to walk over to the State House to file for her seat at the last possible moment.
  • There is a generational divide in thinking on the race between the old-timers like Rep. Bill Crawford and the new-comers like Rep. Carolene Mays. The younger generation feels it's their time to move up the political food chain.
  • Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is emerging as a likely Republican candidate for the seat.
  • "[W]hen [former state health commissioner Dr. Woody] Myers’ name was raised in some circles this Summer as a possible successor, he was “effectively assassinated .... decapitated” by “Julia’s people,” as one astute local observer describes it for us. Indeed, we’re told, “Anybody who’s ever said that they’ve even thought about [running] has encountered that paradigm.”
  • "But there is already at least one white female elected official laying the ground work for a bid, another white lawmaker is also sending out feelers, a former Indiana Democratic Party chair is being encouraged by some to run, and no doubt others are also ensuring that they can quickly enter the contest if the opportunity arises."
  • And here's the kicker. Former Rep. Andy Jacobs may come out of retirement and hold the seat down for the Democrats for one term while the party sorts out who the ultimate successor to Carson will be.

It's a fascinating read. If you want to read the whole story, you will have to subscribe to Feigenbaum's Indiana Legislative Insight.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I'm not a republican, I've certainly never been a supporter of Julia Carson. I'd love to see John Elrod in that position.

Anonymous said...

It's fascinating and as usual, beats Howey's blog all to hell. Here's a reality check:

***Andre will not win. Ever. I am a Dem committeeman, and if the state party is out there promoting an unopposed candidate like Andre, while my district's candidate is fighting like hell for assistance, someone is going to have to answer for that.

***Andy Jacobs may be the defacto spokesman for the Congresswoman's office, but he couldn't win a contested primary. We love him, but he's yesterday. And he's bene a co-conspirator in the entire mess to cover up Julia's health.

***Why in the hell isn't ANYONE taking Julia's self-proclaimed health issue and researching it? There's gold there. I think a local Dr. Sanjay Gupta would be in order...someone to shed some medical light on this leg infection.

***The party's slating for this office is likely going to be mid-February, just before the filing deadline. In past slating fights, the holildays were ripe times to court committeemen. In other words, you'd start seeing commitments piling up as soon as next week.

***The Mayor runs the party apparatus. He will get re-elected next week, and insider betting is that he'll dump Mike O'Connor, whose talents only Bart ever understood anyway. As soon as you start seeing vacant commitmtee slots being filled, that's when you'll know who's running. Uh, they're called "stiffs" for a reason.

Julia really cannot survive a subtle primary whispering campaign about her health. If she looked well, she'd already have appeared in public.

The real story here is not whom the Democrats would select. That'll be an all-out fight worthy of a front-row seat.

The real story would be the Republicans' nominee. They've never really done it right against Julia. A goofball candidate with some money is not the trick--the RIGHT candidate form the start, there's the answer. (Think Brose McVey. Hilarious)

Jon Elrod would be a home run for them.

Can they screw this up?

Probably. We Democrats count on it.

Advance Indiana said...

In fairness to Brian Howey, anon. 11:11, he has been trying to stay on top of this story as well--much more than the rest of the local media.

Anonymous said...

It's more than apparent for all practical purposes that Ms.Carson will not be running for re-election.
With that in mind, who are the Carson players most likely to lose the most if THEIR person is not slated. A list of names would suffice.
The young turks are not going to take over the slating process, so pardon the phrase of "they just don't have the juice".
O'Conner, he'll have a hand in Julia's replacement if Peterson wins and if the black precincts don't deliver the vote next week that my money is on a white democrat taking that seat with the same money folks backing them that floated Peterson's campaign.

Anonymous said...

Just how did Woody get assassinated?

Anonymous said...

That's a fair question, 12:17....the Center gang said Woody:

***was gay (which, of course I don't consider assassination, but some would)(and why it's an issue is beyond me)

***was run out of his job in NYC because of misappropriations of federal dollars

***was the subject of multiple judgments for nonpayment of bills (with a hat tip to Monroe Gray)

***may have inaccurate acaademic vita.

In short, enough dirt to derail most anything.

And I can put some of those words directly in the mouth of one of Julia's closest associates.

At the time, I wondered why they'd even care about a portly former state helth commissioner and whether he was back in town.

Now I know. Anyone whose glow might outshine the Queen's, is subejct to intense rumor-mongering. Never by her, mind you. But by, well...you know who...

Anonymous said...

We have a mayor's race going on...this is all very premature.................Andy Jacobs' health is worse than Julia's health

Sir Hailstone said...

"That's a fair question, 12:17....the Center gang said Woody:

***was gay "

For a Congressperson that gets what - 80? 90% of the support of that slice of the population, her minions using that as a wedge issue is purely hypocritical.

Wilson46201 said...

I'd suggest you delete the 2:17 comment - it is rife with unsubstantiated allegations against a public figure. I'd never heard any of those before - why besmirch Woody's name? Why are these rumors being thrown out into the blogosphere now? Odd...

Anonymous said...

Ignore the dumpster diver. All, stay on the subject of Julia. What we currently have is taxation without representation. It is time for her to go. Period

Anonymous said...

Throw out the allegations, Wilson?
The ugly rumors?

From YOU?

That's hilarious.

Advance Indiana said...

Exactly what you and your Carson buddies did to Kris Kiser, Wilson. You are the dirtiest campaigners in the business. You take a respectable member of the African-American community and you completely destroy them to advance the fruitless career of Julia Carson--not one single piece of legislation after more than a decade in Congress.

Anonymous said...

Even the national Democratic party is embarrassed by Julia's antics. She does nothing to help their cause. They cannot count on her to further any cause because she is never seen and when she opens her mouth she talks about mythical little girls and said the most ridiculous things like, "I ain't got no nickel in that dime."

Anonymous said...

And today, we learn that her medical leave is extended through 12-15-07. That's just four days before the scheduled holiday recess...wanna bet if she'll be back to sip some Wassail in the Capitol, only to return home to recuperate more?

The announcement that her leave was extended, in today's Star, was a simple short story.

NO ONE in the media steps forward to ask: what exactly is her handicapping condition? Can we get a brief medical explanation?

And then match that taxpayer-staff-provided explanation, with some professional medical opinion. It's done all the time for public figures. TV networks have professional medical experts on standby for just such explanations.

You don't see it because the media is lazy. And if you did see it, I'm betting it wouldn't match with facts.

And here's a thought: many rehabilitating public figures, invite a camera in to some of their rehab, to reassure voters that the recuperation is progressing nicely. Think Ronald Reagan after he was shot.

I'm also betting that any photos of Julia would be starkly frightening.

Say...we all know someone who walks around town all the time witih a camera, and rumor has it he's close to Julia...maybe....

Nah. Silly thought.