Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Fat Lady Is About To Sing For Giuliani's Campaign

It wasn't all that many months ago that Rudy Giuliani was leading all of his GOP rivals by a wide margin in national opinion polls for the Republican presidential nomination and had more money in the bank to fund his campaign than all but the self-financed Mitt Romney. His campaign adopted a minimalist approach in the early primary states, penning all their hopes on a big Florida win on February 5. That strategy has proven disastrous to his campaign as campaign funding has dried up and top advisers have been forced to work without pay.

Tonight, Giuliani is finishing in 6th place behind the quixotic Ron Paul with just 3% of the vote in the Michigan primary. In the first test this presidential season, the Iowa Caucus, Giuliani also finished in 6th place behind Ron Paul with only 3.5% of the vote. In the New Hampshire primary, New Yorker Giuliani finished fourth behind Arkansan Mike Huckabee with 8.5% of the vote. Polls in South Carolina show him trailing far behind the leaders in single digits. And in Florida where he enjoyed big leads over his rivals through the end of last year, he is now locked in a 4-way race with McCain, Huckabee and Romney. Looking ahead to California, he's lost a big lead there to McCain. If the fat lady isn't singing yet for Giuliani, she will be soon enough. I hope all those fat cat political consultants who plundered Giuliani's cash pile and wiped out his lead in the polls are sleeping well tonight.


Anonymous said...

Totally wrong. Guiliani will, imo, be the GOP candidate. It starts in Florida. He doesn't even have to win it. Fla awards delegates to congressional district winners, as do all GOP states. 10 are awarded to the state's winner. So Rudy will pick up a nice share of Fla's 114 delegates. He will sweep NY and NJ on Feb 5, which have 153 between them. He will place, and may win, states like Illinois and California.

Your analysis is of the wrong model entirely. This year is not about momentum, bounces, etc etc. It is all about delegates this time. The front loading of this primary season has, predictably, the opposite intended effect. Instead of coronating an early front running nominee, it guarantees a muddle well after 50% of the delegates have been selected.

And after Feb 5, there will probably not be enough delegates left to choose that can realistically be expected to be available to put someone over the top.

So at the convention, it is likely that the GOP nominee will be chosen by GOP insiders who can cut the deals necessary to get two nominees who can get the most votes against the Dems.

I expect that Rudy will be that guy. I expect that after 2/5, he will have won the most delegates. Romney will be close behind.

If anyone is toast at this point, it is McCain. He has a problem in these primaries. It is called "Republican voters". He can't win them. But he does do well vs. Dems and Inds. So hey, maybe I'm wrong, and the convention brokers will put him over the top as the nominee who can do the best in Nov. (vbg)

Good stuff all around. But I have to say you are way off in writing off Rudy. He will win his share on Feb 5, and get LOTS of delegates.

The Dems face a torn apart party over race and gender. I think THEY are toast in November, whoever gets the nod.

Wilson46201 said...

Yeah, it helps to run nothing but white men for President in the GOP...

Gary R. Welsh said...

anon 11:27, as a Guiliani supporter, I hope you are right, but I just don't see it.

Anonymous said...

What will Carl Brizzi do? He has pinned all of hopes for future advancement to a Guiliani win.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Anon. In the past many unknown candidates were able to get publicity by doing well in the early states, which also produced money. Which made them viable. This year this happened to Huckabee.

Romney, McCain, Huckabee are spending a lot of time and money in these first states. They have not received a lot of delegates. Although they have had some publicity, their positions are very well staked out.

Romney, McCain, Huckabee have spent so much time in these first states, that they will not have very much time or money left to get their message out in Florida and all the Feb 5 states.

Giuliani has been working these states from the begining with only token appearances at these first states.

It makes me nervous not seeing him in the news everyday but I think it is a good strategy and when he does start showing well in the Feb 5 states, his ideas will seem more fresh than his opponents since his ideas have not been shown and talked about everyday like his opponents ideas have been.

Anonymous said...

Wilson, isn't your party the one fighting about race at this very moment? All the Rs might be "white men," but they differ philosophically much more than the Democrats.

Now go back to being a shill for Andre.

Gary R. Welsh said...

But Guiliani's numbers have been dropping in states like Florida because of his poor showing, David. I'm afraid people looking for the more moderate voice are jumping ship to McCain to stop a Romney or Huckabee win.

BTW, David, did you get my message? I hadn't heard back from you and time is running short.

Anonymous said...

You are really out of the loop if you think that the local Dem party is torn apart. I was at a large meeting last night and there were people there who backed all of the candidates in the special election. I can assure you that the party has united behind Andre Carson and the campaign has begun......

Anonymous said...

Then the Dems are gonna get their butts justifiably beat again. Hope you all don't get used to it.

Anonymous said...

Guiliani will be the GOP nominee?

What have you all been smoking?

Anonymous said...

Well this post is filled with all sorts of cute little inaccuracies.

First, it is GIULIANI not GUILIANI. Learn to spell candidate names before you start pretending to understand the nomination process.

Secondly, there is no clear front runner right now. It's all about the delegates. Unless Mitt Romney wins South Carolina, a win in Florida will put Giuliani in the lead of the delegate count. 11:27, you are incorrect. Florida is a winner take all state. As is New Jersey and New York (I'm pretty sure), all of which keeps Giuliani in the running.

So Gary, I normally like your posts but the delegate process is much more complicated than an Indy's mayors race. Stick to making broad generalizations on scenarios that you have SOME level of understanding.

Anonymous said...


you are right about florida IF their sanction remains. 57 delegates are awarded to the state's primary winner. If not sanctioned, then 114 delegates will be apportioned via 3 delegates per CD winner, and 36 to the state's primary winner. Plus each state gets 3 super delegates that are uncommitted.

NY is not a winner take all... although 87 of its 101 delegates will be taken by the state's winner. The other 14 are made up of 11 chosen by party hacks later plus the 3 super delegates. So yeah, the only delegates up for grabs in NY on 2/5 will be winner take all.

As for NJ, 52 are winner take all. Then there are the 3 super delegates.

So if Rudy wins NY and NJ, there's 139 right there. If he has solid support in those states amongst the hacks, then he should get the other 17 as well.

And if Fla remains sanctioned and he wins there.. there's another 57, for a total of 213.

And of course, all the CDs across the land that he will be winning on 2/5 will give him 3 delegates each. So as I said, (and I think you say), coming out of 2/5, Rudy will be in VERY good shape for the rest of the way.

My money is on Rudy, with Romney having the next best chance. McCain, imo, has very little chance. To have a chance, he is going to have to win some GOP voters in these primaries.

The thing about Romney is that he will have more money than anyone else for 2/5 and beyond. He won the GOP voters yesterday quite easily (and apparently won the evangelical vote as well), so he will be tough competition.

Lack of money and the resulting attrition will bury the others..... except Rudy, who has been waiting for the right moment, with some cash to spare.. not a lot, but enough to snag a whole boatload of delegates.

And hey Wilson, Hillary is unelectable, with over 50% saying they would not vote for her in November. And if white Democrats won't support Obama, why should anyone else?? vbg

Anonymous said...

Hey Gary....

nerves of steel, man. Nerves of steel.

That's what good leaders need and have.

It's a solid strategy Rudy has had for a long time. The polls dropping for him are expected. That's the price he pays while he waits and counts his cash. Even with the polls dropping, he is not woefully behind in any of those states. He still leads in most of them.

Don't panic, dude.

Anonymous said...

You must be joking me. First, Giuliani would be the easy moderate choice, which is why the Republican primary voter will never go for him.

Second, he's changed so many of his moderate positions as to render that label meaningless.

Third, the only issue he has left is 9/11. 9/11 is supposed to catapult him into office. And if you haven't heard, he's all about 9/11. Oh yeah, and a 20-30% tax cut. Where's the money coming from? Our next generation? Who'll pay the tab for IraqII?

Nope, stick a fork in Rudi. He's done!

Anonymous said...

You're an idiot, Wilson. Just as the leading Democrat candidate for president and her husband, a former president, are using disgusting race-based fear tactics to destroy the first serious African-American candidate in U.S. history, you, dufuss, cast stones at the other party for the racial makeup of their field of candidates. Thank you for this opening to express disgust at Hillary Clinton's race-baiting. The GOP may not be nominating an African-American, but they are not destroying one either. Shameful!

Gary R. Welsh said...

anon 10:49, Thanks for the spelling correction. Perhaps that's why Americans choose presidents with easy names to spell like Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, Harding, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Bush and Clinton.

And I also understand the delegate process quite well, but I will say it again. Giuliani's numbers are in a free fall everywhere where he was once well ahead of the other contenders. By the time those big states roll around, there isn't going to be any buzz about his campaign with such drubbings. He performed poorly in a farm state. He performed poorly in a New England state near his home state. He didn't show up in the first western state. He performed poorly in a northern industrial state. He's going to get killed in South Carolina. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. Nobody in contemporary presidential politics has started off so poorly and wound up winning the nomination.