Monday, November 01, 2010

Election Day Predictions

Here's my take on what to expect in tomorrow's mid-term elections:


Republicans will easily recapture control of the House of Representatives, picking up 57 seats.

Republicans will add nine seats in the Senate, leading to a 50-50 split in control, which means the Democrats will still be in charge.

Republicans will pick up enough gubernatorial races to control 34 of the 50 State Houses.


Dan Coats will easily defeat Brad Ellsworth for the Senate, but Libertarian Rebecca Sink-Burris will capture a larger percent of the vote than any Libertarian has won to date. It will shake out something like this: Coats (52%), Ellsworth (40%) and Sink-Burris (8%).

Republicans will win all statewide races, including Secretary of State, Treasurer and Auditor. Like the Senate race, voter dissatisfaction among Republican voters with Charlie White will lead the Libertarian candidate for Secretary of State to win an unprecedented percentage of the vote. I see similar vote totals for the parties' respective candidates for Secretary of State race as the race for U.S. Senate.

Larry Buschon easily wins in the 8th District with 58% of the vote, Todd Young beats Baron Hill 50% to 46% with the Libertarian picking up 4% of the vote. Expect a very tight race in the 2nd District where the race will likely be decided by fewer than 2,000 votes. If Walorski wins that race, that indicates the Republican wave is going to be exceptionally large nationally, and the Republicans will capture more than 60 House seats.

Republicans will easily capture control of the Indiana House, winning 55 seats to the Democrats 45 seats. The balance of control in favor of the Republicans in the State Senate will remain unchanged. Jim Merritt will defeat Anderson by a 53% to 47% margin.

Marion County:

If this were a repeat of 1994, Republicans would win all of the countywide races. Unfortunately for Republicans, there have been so many warning signs for the Democrats that a big Republican wave is coming this year. That was not the case in 1994 when Democrats were caught off guard. The number of persons casting early votes is up almost double what it was in 2006, although well below the 2008 level. Democrats seem to be happy with their early GOTV efforts in Marion County, which will make it more difficult for Republicans. In 1994, Marion Co. Republicans benefitted largely from an exceptionally low turnout among Democratic voters. The key will be the prosecutor's race. Republicans won't carry the other countywide races unless Mark Massa wins by a comfortable margin in the prosecutor's race. If the race for prosecutor is within two or three percentage points, Republicans will lose the other countywide races. Polling data indicates a tight race for prosecutor with a slight edge to Democrat Terry Curry and suggests Democrat Vop Osili is a slight favorite in the Secretary of State's race. The results for the offices other than the prosecutor's office will probably closely mirror the outcome of the Secretary of State's race in Marion County.


Cato said...

Further, look to Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to see just how many seats shift from blue to red. This year will show what the Republicans can do at full strength. See if there's enough power to shift those blue states red in the 2012 presidential race.

Also look at total votes cast for each party to give an idea just where this country stands.

Nationally, if the Republicans don't win big, tomorrow, they are going to be in huge trouble, because the Census numbers are coming, as is congressional reallocation.

The red states may be angry and motivated, but how many of these voters are there? How many red delegates will be lost in 2012 through reapportionment?

I'm going to be looking hard at the Brown-Whitman race.

Downtown Indy said...

Of course people can early-vote for Republicans, too.

Advance Indiana said...

Most of the early voters in my precinct historically are disproportionately Republican. It varies from precinct to precinct. I have a number of people who live in my precinct who are out of town on election day.

Mike Kole said...

I am very hopeful that the numbers for Libertarian candidates reflect your predictions or more! However, the name recognition of any of the SOS candidates is very weak statewide, and when that is the case, offices like this tend to follow the broader trends. Most Hoosiers don't know much about the office of SOS (sadly), or the issues surrounding the Republican candidate. I doubt the impact of his problems will be that great.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Excellent predictions. I'm not sure I disagree with any of them.