Saturday, January 19, 2008

McCain In The Driver's Seat With South Carolina Win

Sen. John McCain did tonight what he couldn't do eight years ago. Follow up a win in the first in the nation primary, New Hampshire, with a first in the South primary win in South Carolina. McCain beats Gov. Mike Huckabee by several points with Thompson and Romney finishing a distant third and fourth, respectively. Huckabee didn't handle losing well, suggesting McCain won the race dishonorably. He may as well pack his bags and go home. His first and perhaps only primary win will come in his home state of Arkansas. Winning the Iowa Caucus doesn't count for much at this point.

Gov. Mitt Romney scored a caucus win in Nevada, but it doesn't come close to matching McCain's two big primary state wins. Remember, Nevada is one of the few, big Mormon states and nearly half of Romney's votes in Nevada came from Mormon voters. There are no states on the horizon where he is leading in the polls. His campaign is alive, but not by much. If it is a two-man race at this point, it is McCain versus Romney.

And I still maintain that the fat lady is singing for Rudy Giuliani's campaign. He had one of his worst showings tonight, finishing sixth place behind Ron Paul with about 2% of the vote in South Carolina. Polls now show him trailing McCain in Florida's January 29 primary and California's February 5 primary. McCain is tied with Giuliani in his own back yard in New Jersey's February 5 primary. I don't see how Giuliani can afford to lose any of these states and remain viable. His problem is that he has absolutely no momentum on his side, unlike McCain and Romney.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Giuliani's strategy of waiting and working hard to win big on Super Tuesday didn't seem to take into account that folks don't like to vote for losers.

Anonymous said...

He may be in the driver's seat but the bus is going off a cliff very shortly.

Anonymous said...

So, Thompson peeled off some level of social conservatives from Huckabee, thus leaving a hole for McCain to charge through?

That's my take.

Still a fascinating contest going forward.

Anonymous said...

I guess I will have to wait and see who is left standing on both sides when it rolls around here to Indy to decide who I will vote for.

Advance Indiana said...

The race will be long over by that point, anon. 8:40. This nomination will be decided on Super Tuesday, February 4.

Anonymous said...

That's February 5, and I agree.

McCain is actually leading Ghouli in New Jersey and Connecticutt (and most other states recently polled), as well as only being a few point behind in New York!

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:32..you mention 3 states that he will not carry in November.