Saturday, January 12, 2008
Poll Shows Tight Race Between Carson And Elrod
A poll commissioned by the unsuccessful campaign of State Rep. Carolene Mays, which was meant to bolster her bid in today's Democratic caucus voting for the 7th District race, may instead inadvertently boost State Rep. Jon Elrod's bid to win the GOP nomination in tomorrow's GOP caucus slating for the March 11 special election. According to the poll, Democrat Andre Carson is in a near-dead heat race with Jon Elrod. With a margin of error rate of plus or minus 4.9%, Carson edges Elrod by only three points, 41-38%. When the poll was further broken down into likely special election voters, Carson's lead over Elrod increased slightly to 45-40%.
The poll was intended to demonstrate to today's caucus-goers that Mays was the most electable person among the leading Democratic and Republican candidates. "Mays is the most popular, and is the only candidate more popular than Republican contender Jon Elrod," Momentum Analysis, the poll-taker, opined. "Further, potential candidate Andre Carson is the least popular figure we tested, and is even less popular than Governor Mitch Daniels." The analysis continued, "Potential Democratic candidate David Orentlicher's ratings are exactly as anemic as the Governor's."
Although the poll found more voters who knew Carson than Elrod by a 48-21% margin, Elrod's mean favorable rating topped Carson's by a margin of 2.96 to 2.65. Elrod's name identification matched Mays', but her mean favorable rating came in at 3.05. Elrod leads Carson among white voters by 19%, 51-32%, while Carson commands a lead of 74-8% over Elrod among black voters. Carson leads Elrod among female voters by a 44-37% margin, but Elrod is the favorite of male voters by a 40-36% margin. Among Republican base voters, Elrod captures the support of 86% in a match-up with Carson.
The Momentum Analysis random poll of 400 voters in the 7th District was conducted by telephone interview, January 5-7, 2008. The analysis of the poll was presented in a memo prepared by Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis. A long-time Democratic observer tells me the firm is reputable.