Saturday, January 12, 2008

Poll Shows Tight Race Between Carson And Elrod

A poll commissioned by the unsuccessful campaign of State Rep. Carolene Mays, which was meant to bolster her bid in today's Democratic caucus voting for the 7th District race, may instead inadvertently boost State Rep. Jon Elrod's bid to win the GOP nomination in tomorrow's GOP caucus slating for the March 11 special election. According to the poll, Democrat Andre Carson is in a near-dead heat race with Jon Elrod. With a margin of error rate of plus or minus 4.9%, Carson edges Elrod by only three points, 41-38%. When the poll was further broken down into likely special election voters, Carson's lead over Elrod increased slightly to 45-40%.

The poll was intended to demonstrate to today's caucus-goers that Mays was the most electable person among the leading Democratic and Republican candidates. "Mays is the most popular, and is the only candidate more popular than Republican contender Jon Elrod," Momentum Analysis, the poll-taker, opined. "Further, potential candidate Andre Carson is the least popular figure we tested, and is even less popular than Governor Mitch Daniels." The analysis continued, "Potential Democratic candidate David Orentlicher's ratings are exactly as anemic as the Governor's."

Although the poll found more voters who knew Carson than Elrod by a 48-21% margin, Elrod's mean favorable rating topped Carson's by a margin of 2.96 to 2.65. Elrod's name identification matched Mays', but her mean favorable rating came in at 3.05. Elrod leads Carson among white voters by 19%, 51-32%, while Carson commands a lead of 74-8% over Elrod among black voters. Carson leads Elrod among female voters by a 44-37% margin, but Elrod is the favorite of male voters by a 40-36% margin. Among Republican base voters, Elrod captures the support of 86% in a match-up with Carson.

The Momentum Analysis random poll of 400 voters in the 7th District was conducted by telephone interview, January 5-7, 2008. The analysis of the poll was presented in a memo prepared by Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis. A long-time Democratic observer tells me the firm is reputable.

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, Elrod loses in slating.

Anonymous said...

White voters will defeat Andre in this special election. Enough white Dems will cross to Elrod and GOP voters will turn out.

Anonymous said...

I think you're right 4:14. Whites in the district do not feel they have representation and ahbe been insulted by the fact that the African American community somehow feels entitled to this seat even though they are in minority.

Anonymous said...

Carolene Mays may have intended to help the GOP all along...her family has been a big supporter of Mitch Daniels and her voting record supports the GOP many times. She is going to have a strong slating convention and primary fight...she better worry about state rep and forget about delivering the 7th Congressional District to the republicans

Anonymous said...

Sorry, 4:14 and 4:17...if you are even diffenrent people...

But there are a whole lotta white poeple supporting Andre!

lb said...

what is David Brooks' problem with Jon Elrod that he would be pushing all the Center Twp PC's to support Rose???!!! What is the backstory? Elrod is one of the FEW (only?) succeses R's have had in Center! Is there a conflict over control in Center between two factions?

Anonymous said...

Here's what's happening lb. Lacy Johnson is still the braintrust for the Carson machine. The partner who sits in the office right next door to him at Ice Miller is John Hammond. Hammond is the GOP committeeman for the 7th District. It is in the best interest of Ice Miller's lobbying practice for the 7th District seat to remain in the hands of the Carson machine. Hammond has never made any effort to win the 7th District seat on behalf of his party and this election is no different. He and other Republican domos want to give the nomination to Tom Rose instead of Elrod. They know Rose will lose big, and they know Rose will self-finance his campaign.

Advance Indiana said...

Interesting analysis anon 6:47. I would have to disagree with your assertion Hammond made a deal with Johnson. Hammond is vulnerable to the charge he hasn't done enough to help the party win the 7th District race, but I think that is a product more of him having so much on his plate he can't devote as much time to his district committeeman duties as people would like rather than a deliberate attempt to lose the district. I totally agree that for some Republican leaders, the allure of a candidate who can self-finance his campaign is valued higher than finding the best candidate to run for the seat.

Anonymous said...

6:12 and 6:47....

plus, D brooks loves these little internecine battles. It puts lead in his pencil.

Marti said...

Anon 4:14, just like they did against Julia, when she was crippled by health issues? Dream on.

As AI has shown, this district is dark blue. You make no sense. Julia was one of the most liberal Reps in the House, yet she always prevailed. Andre will as well. It'll be fun to watch, but in the end the 7th will be like the ruby slippers in the Wizard of Oz. Coveted, but not attainable.

6:47
Your analysis sounds like something akin to a 9/11 conspiracy. You suggest collusion with your only proof being one of office logistics.

The more likely scenario is that they don't want to throw valuable campaign dollars down the drain. The seventh is blue. The only thing that would make it red would be a scandal... even then I think it would take a Republican candidate that is a Scott Keller kind of Republican.

Marti said...

btw, I like the sign better that Mr Pullins was holding that said "Mays is a Liar."

The documents that he gave out were quite the read. I personally wouldn't have made those public.

Anonymous said...

7:38, Scott Keller????????????

You're brain dead.

Penn PhD said...

Marti's another Generation Me twenty something out to change the world with absolutely no concept of the real world of politics.
Your profile speeaks volumes.
Get laid, get a life and stay out of politics will ya?

Anonymous said...

Did someone mention Scott Keller? Now that's a real winner! LMFAO

Anonymous said...

I really wish race wouldn't rear its ugly head in this contest.

Plainly and simply, Andre was the least-qualified Democrat today, with one possible exception. I attended, and the vitriol among ardent Carson supporters (Vanessa Summers, Carl Drummer, Tony Duncan, et al--the same olg gulag that wants things ONLY their way) was over the top. They were angry at David O for "dissing" Andre by running.

In other words, how dare someone with brains and a track record, God forbid, challenge the legacy. It was sickening.

The "entitlement" attitude was over the top.

Altho, Andre's acceptance speech was classic and excellent. He clearly has been accepting some public policy tutorials.

It's going to be an interesting campaign for the Mar. 11 special.

Anonymous said...

Carolene Mays got fewer votes than she had volunteers in the hall.

An excellent cumeuppance. She is a legend in her own mind.

Anonymous said...

Carolene Mays needs to be exposed for the Republican that she is.....I wonder what the literature being passed out about her revealed about her character. Did anyone get a copy of what those protesting her candidacy were passing out?

Anonymous said...

(Vanessa Summers, Carl Drummer, Tony Duncan, et al--the same olg gulag that wants things ONLY their way) was over the top. They were angry at David O for "dissing" Andre by running.

In other words, how dare someone with brains and a track record, God forbid, challenge the legacy. It was sickening.

The "entitlement" attitude was over the top.


This is what happened in Detroit, and we all know how that city turned out. Thankfully, Indy has one last hope, but even with the Democrats thrown out in the last election, things could still get worse just based on global factors. If things get worse, Ballard and the republicans lose in four years. Anyone with money, white, black, Hispanic, etc. will flee Marion County. Whatever group of players is in charge then will pretty much have everything. Of course everything will be a whole lot of nothing.

Anonymous said...

lb it's three little word; money, money and MONEY.

Anonymous said...

I wish all of these bitter unhappy constantly complaining people would go ahead and move to the country....all they do is complain about everything..if Indy is that bad then go somewhere else.

Marti said...

Yes, Scott Keller...or any other moderate to liberal Republican. A conservative won't win the 7th for at least 10-20 years...at least.

"Marti's another Generation Me twenty something"

Hardly. :) I'm probably older than you are.

Penn PHD, nice little dig. Too bad it has no basis in fact. I can prove my point with one word...

DICKERSON.

Anon 10:07. Contact me off blog, and I can send you the info in a PDF. Be forewarned...it didn't really move me...it seemed kinda pathetic.

Anonymous said...

I got this "poll" from Carolene in the mail. I can only suppose she was using it to sway committeemen to her cause in the caucus.

It demonstrates a few things:

1. She has money. This is a respectd firm.

2. Even respected firms can out-think themselves. Very sloppy question construction and sloppier execution of the poll.

3. Nobody knows Andre yet. That will change.

4. Carolene is not worthy of her state job, let alone a federal one, if she has no more sense than to distribute this kind of information.

Carolene only got a couple dozen votes in the caucus. How she ever thought she'd win, is beyond me. Multiple committeemen told me at the caucus that she was an embarrassment to the party. And she is.

Carolene, honey...your weak-principled support for SJR7, and your weak record on multiple issues, is a sad legacy indeed. You belong with the rest of your fellow Democrats, not Eric Miller.

Repent or get lost. (Who WERE all those Mays t-shirt folks yesterday? Don't you feel pretty silly, spending all that money and getting only a few votes? You sure as hell should)

Wilson46201 said...

André Carson's victory at the Caucus: http://youtube.com/watch?v=0jFfqox1KGE

Anonymous said...

Carolene Mays belongs with the republicans.....she votes with Mitch Daniels and the republicans frequently she had 60to 90 of her committeepersons there and only got 26 votes.....MESSAGE, get it Carolene.

Anonymous said...

No matter about all this bickering -- if Republicans want to win the special election, they'll nominate Rep. Elrod.

This solid downtown Democrat would vote for him in the special election because (A) he's a moderate, (B) I'm tired of the Johnson/Drummer/Gray crew, but more importantly (C) I want Rep. Orentlicher (or Joanne Sanderes) to be the candidate in November, and if Elrod wins in March, that'll knock Andre out of the race in May!

Anonymous said...

I agree with 9:36 am. I do believe that "the machine" may well have lost the 7th for the democrats.

Before you start in.....I voted for Julia every single time but to put Andre in that seat over talent like David O or Sanders was ridiculous.

It is time to make our party better than this. These fools don't understand what happened in the last election and I doubt that they remotely understand what they have done in this election.

If Elrod gets the nomination, I will likely be voting for him but I would rather be voting for a Dem that truly deserves the seat.

Anonymous said...

As a lifelong activist Democrat,10:21's post truly concerns me. It was predictable--the Center Township gang just doesn't get it.

I can only hope Andre can campaign half decently. Of course, we have no idea if he can, because he has no experience.

And before anyone gives out that tired "he was at his grandma's side" line---I was at a lot of the early-on Julia events. Never saw the kid.

And even if he were there, he has no direct ballot experience except his November win.

Let's hope for my party's sake he's a fast learner.

Anonymous said...

Have no fear, 11:03- Andre's campaign staff are young, energetic and have tons of experience.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who spent just a small time around Andre will quickly realize that he is informed about the issues and right on the issues as well as having an excellent ability to communicate those views and listen to the views of the person who is talking to him.

The scariest thing I have heard is that Patrice Abdullah is actively campaigning to get his council seat back if Andre is elected. NO WAY IN HELL. Abdullah is a loser, a cheat and a liar and he will NEVER get that council seat back.

Anonymous said...

André Carson's victory at the Caucus:

WHO CARES???????

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Fed Up Fed said...

4:40 Sorry to tell you this but she has a seat at the Ballard table too.
And, don't look for the numbers racket to stop any time soon.
In case you didn't notice, another Carson is going to be protecting the same racketeers.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

The kitchen getting hot Gary?

Anonymous said...

I vividly recall the night Andy Jacob's father lost the Marion County Prosecutor's race to Steve Goldsmith.
This was of course back in the days when the 7th District was the 10th and the 10th was held by Andy Jacobs who in turn handed the District over to Julia Carson.
Politics does indeed make strange bedfellows.
It has been speculated on other various blogs that the current 10th District is simply a concession to the entrenched black power structure.
Seems to me that there is a lot of money riding on who controls the 7th District Congressperson.
I won't get into organized crime unless someone feels highjacking minority contracts is organized?

Anonymous said...

In response stating that Andre was not at some of the "events", but he was with his grandmother learning how to cast votes, how to talk to other congresspersons. He was learning the meat and potatoes of Washington D.C. not just sitting on the sidelines.

Anonymous said...

Just to clarify- Lacy and John's office are not next door to each other. So that part of your argument falls apart too. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

Yo GaRee, hope you're at the R caucus and hope Elrod is winning for u since the Colts freaking lost today.

If Elrod get the nom, will you include your thoughts as to what this might mean for the county party (PC's/People vs. Powers that Be; some recognition/hope that R's can still win here with the right (as in not hard-right) candidate for the county/district?)

Marti said...

9:36 But do they want to? Do they want to embolden the Democrats to come out in mass to vote for Andre or David, and end up carrying Metro Indy for Mitch's challenger?

10:21 Then get involved in the process and make it happen! Carson's nod happened because he has supporters in the process. Get involved and change the dynamic.

1:27 agreed. I've moved, he wouldn't represent me anymore, but I definitely would work for any Dem that would challenge him, if he ran.

Wilson46201 said...

GOP Slating Vote Count:

Elrod - 186

Rose - 79

Campo - 26

Anonymous said...

291 votes out of the entire 7th district...those whiners who complained that the Dems only had 440 must be getting pretty silent right now. Since the special election is March 11 which is after the filing deadline for state representative, does this mean that he cannot run for state rep at the same time.

Anonymous said...

Holy cow, I almost posted (jokingly!) yesterday "does this mean Patrice gets 'his' Council seat back?"

10:21 said...

I am involved Marti and I have been for quite some time. Much, much more complicated as this is all unfolding.

You were there yesterday, you saw it all and you still think that just getting involved is going to fix the problem?

Since Elrod is in, I will be crossing party lines for this election.

Marti said...

10:21 It's always complicated. Do I think it would be "easy as?" No. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. But it can be done. How many folks didn't show up? The result could have been much different, had those 160 folks showed up... and felt like you.

Anonymous said...

This election will be a tough one for the Gay community to pick a candidate.

Although Jon Elrod has stated that he supports the Gay community, and even had a booth at the Indy Gay Pride event, he hasn't shown that he is willing to take a stand publicly or even vote against the Republicans on anything.

Andre does support the Gay community, and you know that he will have no problem taking a stand for Gay Rights.

If Jon Elrod wants to get any crossover support from Democrats in the Gay community, he had better come out publicly and announce his support for Gay Rights.

Elrod tells Advance Indiana that he supports Gay Rights, but I've heard that he's telling the Religious Right that he supports their values, too.

Politics as usual (telling both side what they want to hear) is NOT going to work for any candidate in this new digital media age.

When Elrod gives the Indy Star a quote saying that he supports Gay Rights, including things like Gay marriage, then I will really believe that he supports Gay Rights and is not just playing politics!