Thursday, April 29, 2010

Coats Leads In Latest Poll

Former U.S. Senator Dan Coats leads a five-man field in the Republican Senate primary race according to a Survey USA poll taken last week on behalf of the Mike Downs Center. The poll result is as follows:

Coats (36%)
Hostettler (24%)
Stutzman (18%)
Bates (6%)
Behney (4%)
Undecided (13%)

The number of undecided Republican primary voters isn't as large as I expected. Stutzman seems to be the biggest gainer in this poll, although he still has a lot of ground to make up. I can't imagine that Coats is resting very comfortably on this poll result. He has the best name recognition by far in the field, and media coverage of the belated filing of his financial disclosure form hasn't been doing him any good in recent days. The same poll shows Coats beating Democrat Brad Ellsworth handily in the general election, 47%-31%.


Joshua Claybourn said...

What am I missing? Why is Stutzman the biggest gainer? Gainer compared to what?

It's amazing the degree to which people are willing to gloss over Hostettler's clear position as second, ahead of Stutzman. If people are looking for the most viable candidate to beat Coats, that person is Hostettler.

Gary R. Welsh said...

I'm just saying, Josh, that Stutzman emerged from single digits to a strong third position. Hostettler was already knocking on Coats' door. He doesn't seem to have gotten any closer in recent weeks, and he sure hasn't raised any money. Stutzman is the only candidate I've seen much of in the Indy market besides Coats. Anything is possible. I don't suspect the undecideds will break for Coats. I still haven't made up my mind in this race.

Joshua Claybourn said...

You write, "I'm just saying, Josh, that Stutzman emerged from single digits to a strong third position."

To my knowledge this is the first legitimate public poll conducted in the race. There was no poll showing Stutzman in single digits.

Everything I've seen from internal polls has suggested that the race is between Hostettler and Coats, with Stutzman behind in third. This poll reinforces that. Hostettler's only problem is that folks in and around Indianapolis continue to discount him.

Blog Admin said...

Gary, I've started hearing some Hostettler commercials on WIBC as of yesterday.

Gary R. Welsh said...

Josh, I posted when Hostettler made his announcement that he was getting into the race. I've heard nothing from his campaign since. I've received e-mails from Coats and Stutzman periodically on their campaigns. I get e-mails about every other day from Ellsworth. I would think that he would be reaching out to bloggers more than he has been given the small amount of cash his campaign has raised.

Cato said...

Stutzman needs to endorse Hostettler.

M Theory said...

I'm voting Hostettler in the primary and for Libertarian Rebecca Sink-Burris in the general election.

dcrutch said...

Hostettler- in the big picture of beating Ellsworth, he's got the best balance in lack of baggage, name recognition, and energizing for November

interestedparty said...

'Scuse me, he has baggage left over from his previous time in Congress, namely his reputation for being a little nutty, his rushes to judgement based on weird research (telling cancer survivors that if they just hadn't had those abortions they'd not have contracted breast cancer), his refusal to appear in public to debate his opponents, and just (this is subjective, I know) his in-general creepiness. There's a reason Ellsworth beat him before.

dcrutch said...

My definition of creepy is voting for health "reform" because the President pressured you into it- turning against the will of your home state and country.

We're suppossed to be impressed with the "quirkiness" of Hostettler when we've had a couple of years of the likes of Reverand Wright, the trashing of industrial bandruptcy convention, and a belief that somewhere within the Constitution is a stipulation that you must buy health insurance?

Sorry, but quirky and nutty have moved up several notches.

Also pretty tough to trump "lobbyist" or "out-of-stater" for baggage.

Marycatherine Barton said...

I appreciate Hostettler being against President Bush's war on Iraq, and the great book he wrote after leaving office, think he is a brave patriot, even if wired differently than me, but probably Coats will win.