Thursday, September 14, 2006

Poll Shows Uphill Battle For Dickerson

A WISH-TV poll of the 7th congressional district puts Rep. Julia Carson (D) ahead of her Republican opponent Eric Dickerson by 20 points, 55%-35%. Assuming Dickerson collected all of the independent votes, he would still end 10 points behind Carson. While Carson pretty much hits a ceiling of support, making it tough for her to break through the 60% mark, her opponents seem to have a difficult time getting much above 45%.

The poll would indicate that the controverisal bar in the Julia Carson Government Center has had no impact on her re-election chances. Carson's past opponents have thrown a lot at her with little effect. She reminds me of former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards (D), who used to say that his opponents couldn't beat him unless he was "caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy". I don't think either would cause Rep. Carson to lose an election.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Life is a challenge - Go for it or stay home.

55% with 8 weeks to go. She has nowhere to go but down.

Wilson46201 said...

Good post, AI --- a tad cynical but amusing nevertheless!

You're right, "No Park Left Behind" is hardly the killer issue Dickerson was grasping for ... as long as he can still afford the $400/week RV lease and the $150/week fuel costs, the best campaigning he can do is getting out and meeting voters ... shaking hands and kissing babies still remains effective!

Above all, you cant beat somebody by beating up on people. "Be nice!"

Anonymous said...

If he spends a little money on paid media, and by little IU mean $100K, he can crack 40%. Without it he's toast.

He may have to run a second time to get it.

Staying nice along the way will make that easier.

Sir Hailstone said...

The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 7th

Queen916 said...

Its too soon to tell if Carson will be re-elected. Voter ID and the computerized voting machines will limit her ability to steal votes and election.

I know first hand.

Eric Dickerson will win by a narrow margin!

Anonymous said...

On November 7th, Dickerson will win the 7th. God Bless America.

Queen916 said...

History:

Remember the 1994 race. Jeff Modisett and Scott Newman. Brian Vargus reported 16 points ahead for Jeff Modisett 2 days before, but come election night Scott Newman won the prosecutors race.

Anonymous said...

A poll means nothing when people are afraid.

Blacks in Indianapolis are just like those in 50's and 60's... afraid to speak up due to potential retaliation, so they are not going to reveal over the phone who they are going to vote for on election date.

Further, who do think they polled during the day...most of us were at work.

Election day will be a different matter, you just wait and see...and no more ballot box switches or voting twice, no more absence of a candidate who is effective on all levels...not just the street level.

Anonymous said...

Queen: Don't revise.

And before anyone else jumps in and repeats the oft-quoted phrase: "Modisett lost because he prosecuted Mike Tyson and the black community was mad." Center Township turnout was off only slightly that year. It's never very good.

Brian Vargus's poll showed, eight days out not two, that the race was an eight point Modisett lead, which was, given the statistical sample, only a little outside the MOE (5%).

1:57 is right. These folks retaliate with a vengance.

Which is why AI, many of us wish to remain anonymous. They find their enemies, search them out, and squash them. And anyone who doesn't agree 100% with the incumbents is an enemy.

Seriously. If you take away this access from us, that's your choice. We'll read and not comment.

It is a much-appreciated outlet, though.

Queen916 said...

I find it interesting the Carson supporters seem to counter my comments on every turn, but they don't want to be identified. Yet they are complaining about the anonymous bloggers who do not support their views.

I have yet to see one of them write or provide proof that the information on the blogs are false.

A challenger always starts out from behind, until the race is over. And, it is not over!

Channel 8 polls have always leaned towards Democratic candidates and incumbent office holders.

What's new? The New York Times has zeroed in on the 7th District. There must be some movement for a change.

Carson will go down just like Cynthia McKinney, (D)congresswoman.

Anonymous said...

It just shows that there is a group of people in that district that will keep voting for Carson, no matter what she does. I think they would vote for her even if she was not running.

Its a shame that she represnts us

Anonymous said...

The ones that push the hardest are on the payroll, or they are part of the Mafia inner circle.

Anonymous said...

I just re-read CH. 8's poll methodology. It's pretty sound. They've always been pretty close to the actual outcome.

Polls are always a snapshot in time. But if you buy a good one, and the respondents are properly stratified, and you ask legitimate questions, it's a pretty exact science.

I'm frankly surprised Mr. Dickerson is over 20% at this point. He's a challenger who has spent almost nothing on media. I'd bet a great deal of his current percentage is hardcore Repubs and people who know his name from his car dealership.

He can rise higher, but he's going to have to go (slightly) negative and dump some big money into it.

"Pick up the babies and grab the old ladies" wont hack it in a CD. It's too large, too many voters. You have to get on the tube. Period.

Sir Hailstone said...

He may not be on the tube as Congressional Candidate yet, but he's been meeting lots of people at the places where 90% of the people go. Wal-Mart, Target, and Meijer.

Eric got out and shook at least a thousand hands of people at the Coleman School carnival. Where was Julia? holding court inside where nobody could see her.

Anonymous said...

I wish I had a dollar for every time I'd heard the same line, Hail. It just doens't hold water any more. Sadly.

The landscape is (unfortunately) liettered with people who think the same way, Hail, and have opopsed Miss Carson in the past.

Forty Wal Mart grip-and-grins cannot make up for one good round of radio or TV ads.

The history just isn't there for ED unless he gets to the media airwaves.

Meeting folks at events is nice. It's fun for the candidate, if exhausting.

But it is pennies compared to the incumbent's dollars.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:53 is right.

To be clear, I don't think anyone in this string, or any other discussion here about the ugly deal Drummer made over the bar/resturant, supports what he did.

But this string is sadly filled with some negative folks, at least one of whom has an obvious hard-on for Julia. It's ugly stuff. It's almost as vicious as a domestic argument. Probably someone who got beat by Julia or one of her fellow officeholders. Sour grapes, and they just can't let go.

Cheers for Wilson46201 who seems to keep his cool, no matter how many ugly comments are thrown at him or Julia. He's a bright and articulate guy, and an obvious Juila supporter.

And that's the basis of why Julia has always been, and will be successful again this year. She and most of her people are good and decent people. The ugly and negative attacts by the 'losers' in this string, bounce off her back. Just as have the nasty attacks by her opponents over the years.

Thanks for taking the high road, Wilson, and a tip of the the hat to Julia, too, for always doing the same.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous- Julia has been clever over the years in politics to use other people to do her dirty work so that she will not be blamed for it.

To date you and Wilson have been surfing the web trying to counter any truths about her true character and personality.

While you can write your nasty nice comments about Dickerson, Darla and Jocelyn, Julia doesn't have to put herself out front.
she has you, Wilson Allen and others to do it for her.

The two faces of Eve. Now that she is old and sick, she can play the sympathy game on the minds of people but she is the same vicious person she has always been manipulating those around her, and destroying those who do not go along with her program.

Her reign of terror is comming to an end this year!

No Mo Tyranny!!!! said...

Julia will lose...

Anonymous said...

?? Cheers for Wilson46201 who seems to keep his cool, no matter how many ugly comments are thrown at him or Julia. He's a bright and articulate guy, and an obvious Juila supporter. ??

Did you see him blow a gasket in an earlier thread a few weeks ago ?

Now that was a major kerfuffle ( sic ).