Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Clinton Stomps Obama In West Virginia

A Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won the presidency in the past century without carrying the state of West Virginia. Tonight, Sen. Hillary Clinton is trouncing the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, by a better than two-to-one margin in the West Virginia primary. Despite the news media writing off her candidacy, Clinton is winning support from almost two-thirds of the nearly 350,000 voters who came out to vote today, which could give her a net plurality tonight of 120,000 votes. Obama is receiving just 28% of the vote. Even John Edwards, whose name still appeared on the ballot here, managed to grab about 6% of the vote. Only 36% of the people who voted for Clinton tonight said they would vote for Obama in the general election according to exit polls. More than a third of Clinton voters said they would support McCain in the general election.

By the time the votes are all counted tonight, Sen. Hillary Clinton will once again wipe out the popular vote lead Obama now holds when you add up all the votes to date, including Michigan and Florida. Next week, Clinton could rack up a similar-sized win in Kentucky, while Obama is favored in Oregon. Nonetheless, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann derisively referred to Clinton voters tonight as "delirious" and others continued to join the chorus calling for Clinton to end the race. Listening to Clinton's victory speech tonight, it sounded like she has every intention of sticking out the race until the final primary on June 2 in Puerto Rico, where she is expected to win by a large percentage.

There is also some very bad news for Republican congressional hopes this fall tonight. For the third time this year, Democrats have won an overwhelmingly Republican district in a special election. This time, it's a seat in Mississippi. Republicans earlier lost seats in Louisiana and Illinois which have been safe Republican seats for years. Based on the results thus far, I think it is safe to assume both Rep. Steve Buyer and Rep. Mark Souder here in Indiana are extremely vulnerable this fall. They both face well-funded and credible opponents in Nels Ackerson and Mike Montagano, respectively.

17 comments:

artfuggins said...

And what did she win.....?? She may net a gain of 10 delegates and she is not going to be the nominee. Her speech was nothing more than a plea for money to try and pay down some of her $20 million debt.

tarrandwoolley said...

I like your "including Michigan and Florida." I could be wrong, but I think Obama would have done very well in Michigan if he had actually been on the ballot. The fact remains both Clinton and Obama agreed not to count Michigan and Florida before this all began. Then Clinton said she would be happy with 1/2 votes, and that has now changed to full seating.

As for the Virginia loss by Obama, and the purported fact that you have to win Virginia to become President. I think everyone has recognized that the electoral map has been changed significantly. For instance, Travis Childers just won the Mississippi U.S. Congressional seat over the Republican incumbent, including in a county that had voted over 60% in favor of Bush in 2004. Moreover, he stole the seat after the GOP machine sent in Dick Cheney to stump and associated Travis Childers with Obama. At this point, I am not sure how much West Virginia actually matters anymore.

Michael said...

Who cares how Obama "would have" done in Michigan? He took himself off the ballot. That's his fault. Should Obama have to give up some of his Idaho caucus delegates b/c Hillary did not contest them? That is just silly. The only way Obama wins the nomination is if the Dems disenfranchise millions of loyal Dem primary voters in two large and critical swing states. He wins with 48 states, but loses with 50 states. Dems are so bizarre. All their talk about counting every vote was all a bunch of hooey. Who knew? lol

Sean Shepard said...

Doesn't Edwards have something like 60 or 70 delegates in his pocket?

Could Hillary be counting on those at a brokered convention? Still leaves a 100 delegate gap, unless Florida and Michigan are counted and that would still leave a 30-40 delegate gap. Is that right?

I'm cobbling together bits from what I've heard or think I know. Could be way off here.

Advance Indiana said...

Sean, The delegate counts I've seen show Edwards with 18 delegates.

Flynn said...

Tarr, that's highly doubtful. Michigian is a huge manufacturing state. While Obama would have won much of the urban area that wouldn't have been nearly enough to overcome Hillary's huge margin among blue collar workers.

spooknp said...

They both agreed to the Mich. and Florida rules, now Clinton wants to be an Indian giver and take back everything she agreed too. I will love it if the rich white woman steals this from the black man. There may or may not be riots in poor, inner city urban black areas. However, I know many blacks that have said they would refuse to vote, or even vote for McSame if she uses some tactics to take the nomination.

Lance Rasmussen said...

" The only way Obama wins the nomination is if the Dems disenfranchise millions of loyal Dem primary voters in two large and critical swing states."

Funny thing, that. Especially considering how hard the Dems beat the populist drum. "Will of the people! Will of the people! But, if we don't like your choice for the Dem nominee, we have these superdelegates that will make the right choice, because you voters are too dumb." Change!

There will be some big rule changes to the D primary process after this election cycle. My guess is the role of the SD's gets reduced, or they get eliminated altogether.

Flynn said...

Art, you don't get it do you? This isn't about the number of delegates...it's about a bigger picture - presenting to the superdelegates the fact that Obama can't win the big swing states. If she does that then there's more than enough superdelegates that can put her over the top. Remember that whole idea of "pledged" superdelegates has no legal significance whatsoever. They can switch at any time, including at the convention.

Sir Hailstone said...

"However, I know many blacks that have said they would refuse to vote, or even vote for McSame if she uses some tactics to take the nomination"

And there's probably just as many "dixiecrats" or "George Wallace Democrats" that will stay home or vote for McClain before they would vote for a black man.

legaldiva said...

It's misleading to add Michigan and Florida in the popular vote count. Obama did not campaign in either of those states, Clinton did. Moreover, Obama did not appear on the Michigan ballot. Giving her credit for "winning" those states essentially rewards her for breaking the rules. How do we teach our children to follow basic rules if our presidential candidates won't?

artfuggins said...

Flynn...but it is about the delegtes...they count the delegates and the one who gets half wins....No extra for winning a state like West Virgina..no extra points for violating your pledge and running in Michigan when the other major candidates honored their pledge and did not put their name on the ballot. No extra points for playing the race card...no extra points for having a husband who was president....no extra points for wearing pants suits!!!!

Flynn said...

No, Art, you don't get it. If she can convince the superdelegates she's more electable than Obama and Obama has major, major flaws, they can swing to her in a second.

True Conservative said...

legaldiva

neither campaigned in Florida or Michigan. That was the deal. Obama took his name off in Michigan to try to sell himslef in Iowa.

artfuggins said...

You arent listening. Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan as did all other candidates except Hillary. They all had agreed not to participte if the date was moved. Everyone kept his word except for Hillary. She lied on that one also. Everyone agreed not to campaign in Florida. Everyone kept his word there except for Hillary who did not campaign there but had one of her unions making phone calls, GOTV and door to door canvassing. If she lies that much in the campaign, what would she do in the White House. We have had 7 1/2 years of a liar in the White House. That is enough.

Flynn said...

I don't know, Art, we had 8 years of the biggest liar who every occupied the White House from 1993 through 2001, so I wouldn't think you'd have a problem with Hillary.

IndyPaul said...

When Clinton lied, no one died.