Monday, May 05, 2008

Clinton Looks Good In Indiana

According to the RCP polling data average for tomorrow's Indiana Democratic primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 48.8%-43.8%. All but one major poll in recent days show Clinton with a lead of anywhere from 4 points to 12 points. Zogby's tracking poll has Obama up by 2 points. Survey USA's latest poll shows Clinton with a 12-point lead. TPM's Josh Marshall, an Obama supporter, opines that the SurveyUSA poll has been more accurate this campaign cycle than Zogby. If you look at the RCP average in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas going into those primaries, Sen. Clinton finished about 4-5 points higher than the RCP average. If that trend holds, Clinton should win 53%-54% of Indiana's primary vote. Based upon early voting numbers, the turnout is going to be extremely high, with lots of first-time voters and lots of Republican cross over voters in the Democratic primary. New registrants should help Obama, while cross over voting should help Clinton. Clinton should carry Joe Donnelly's Second District and Brad Ellsworth's Eighth District. Ellsworth says he will cast his superdelegate vote based on his district's vote, while Donnelly has taken a wait-and-see view.

In North Carolina, the RCP polling data average shows a 7-point lead for Obama of 49.7%-42.7%. One poll shows Obama's lead as small as 3 points, while the poll with the widest lead for Obama is 10 points. It is remarkable that the numbers are even close here. Obama had as much as a 20-point lead in North Carolina just a few weeks ago. Obama should still win the state for no other reason than its large African-American population--about 30% of the electorate. If the trend of Clinton picking up 4-5 points over the RCP average holds here, she should finish with about 47% of the vote. This outcome may be the reason both camps are suggesting today that this race will continue into June.

6 comments:

ellie said...

I would encourage Indiana voters who are undecided in tomorrow's Presidential primary race to take a good look at Barack Obama. I think he is the best chance for this country to be united and to move forward to make tough decisions on the economy, the war ,and education. The last weeks have been very tough on him but he has shown great composure and wisdom in dealing with the Rev Wright situation. He doesn't give us easy answers and he challenges us to be involved. He also says the road ahead will not be easy. Since when have you heard a politician speak with that kind of candor. He didn't jump on the gasoline tax roll back but explained why it wasn't a good idea. He voted on it in Illinois and he knows first hand it doesn't give consumers any financial break. Most honest of all was the fact he admitted he voted for it and then voted to repeal it after a few months when it proved to be a failed policy. This man has shown courage and honesty. He is a uniter and speaks in our behalf regardless of our background or age.

Bart Lies said...

But he endorsed The Kid. So he's got some fundamental problems in the realm of decision-making.

indyernie said...

Sorry ellie your guy hasn't shown the voters how he will make any changes. All we have heard is “let's make change” and nothing supportive to that claim.
Clinton isn't the best answer but if she can keep a pair of pants on Bill at least she brings some experience to the White House.
Come November McCain will be elected anyway so this two ring circus dog and pony show doesn't matter much anyway.
America is sending Obama back to Libcity Chicago where he belongs.
Tomorrow I cross over and vote for HillBillary.
Hillary
Myers
Jill
Henderson

hi7654 said...

"He doesn't give us easy answers"

ummmm...kind of.

One example: Obama has made a big deal out of candidates accepting money from special interests, so he’s decided not to accept any donations from PACs.

That got me wondering: How much impact do PACs have on Hillary’s fund raising?

As it turns out, only 1% of donations to her presidential campaign have come from PACs. (See: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.asp?ID=N00000019&Cycle=2008)

Obama is making an issue out of only 1% of her contributions!

And if we go back to Clinton’s latest and Obama’s only federal election cycle, it gets even better.

In his 2004 senate race, 8% of Obama’s contributions came from PACs. (See: http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?ID=ILS2&Cycle=2004)

In Hillary’s 2006 race, just 4% came from PACs. (See: http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?ID=NYS1&Cycle=2006)

It gets even better! Obama actually has his own PAC. It’s called Hope Fund, and it’s Web site (http://hopefundamerica.com/) no longer exists and directs visitors to Obama’s presidential campaign site.

However, we can still find out some interesting information: In the 2006 cycle, Obama’s PAC gave $239,243 to other Democrats out of its $3 million in expenses. (See: http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.asp?strId=C00409052&cycle=2006

So it looks like PACs are also OK when he’s running one and giving away the money.

But wait! There’s more! To quote a 2007 Boston Globe article:

“His presidential campaign has maintained ties with lobbyists and lobbying firms to help raise some of the $58.9 million he collected through the first six months of 2007.” (See: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/08/09/pacs_and_lobbyists_aided_obamas_rise/?page=1)

Money from lobbyists = bad. Money from lobbying firms = OK.

So, as it turns out, Obama only thinks PAC money is bad when others accept it or give it away. When he gets it or gives it away, PAC money is OK. And while it’s wrong to take money from registered lobbyists, taking money from employees of lobbying firms is OK.

You're right--his position isn't an "easy" answer to the issue of special interests. But it does show that Obama is a Chicago politician who'll make an issue out of anything...even if it isn't fair or fully accurate.

Aryq46254 said...

ellie, Obama lost my vote when he announced his support for Andre. Obama can talk change all he wants, but his actions prove otherwise. I was 100% behind him until his endorsement of Andre. Its a shame.

dokkaq said...

Sorry ellie your guy hasn't shown the voters how he will make any changes. All we have heard is “let's make change” and nothing supportive to that claim.

It seems that poor Ernie relies on the mass media to inform him about candidates instead of making the effort to research them on his own. Obama has provided a 64 page document detailing the specific actions he will take.