Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Big Win For Daniels

Gov. Mitch Daniels scores a big re-election win tonight. Ticket splitters in Democratic strongholds is boosting Daniels' margin statewide. As an example, in my downtown precinct, Sen. Barack Obama captured 63% of the vote. Yet Gov. Daniels polled 66% of the vote in this same precinct. Similarly, Daniels is carrying Marion County with close to 60% of the vote at the same time Obama is carrying it by close to 62%. It's also easy to see why Sen. McCain is struggling to keep Indiana in the red state column. Daniels is winning suburban Hamilton County with more than 82% of the vote. McCain is winning only 60% of the vote in this big Republican candidate, a double-digit reduction in Bush's 2004 margin there. Based on the results I've seen coming in so far, it looks like Indiana is going to go to Obama by a very small margin. McCain's margin in Republican areas is coming up too short. I don't see how he offsets Obama's big margins in Marion County where the votes are mostly counted and northwest Indiana, where most of the votes have not yet been reported.

There is a bit of a downer for Gov. Daniels' big re-election tonight. It looks like House Democrats will extend their 2-seat majority going into this election. Three contested Marion County legislative seats aren't helping the cause. Democrats Ed DeLaney, John Barnes and Mary Ann Sullivan are currently holding leads over Republicans Adam Nelson, Chris Swatts and Jon Elrod. If Democrats sweep these three races, they will net a 2-seat pickup in Marion County alone. On a bright note for Republicans, Ed Clere appears to have upset long-time Democratic veteran Bill Cochran in District 72. That news is dampened by Democrat Nancy Michael's upset win over Republican incumbent Andy Thomas in District 44. Incumbent Democrat Scott Reske loses tonight to Republican Kelly Gaskill in District 37, but incumbent Republican Tim Harris loses to Democrat Joe Pearson in District 31.

UPDATE: Chris Swatts has lost the District 89 seat held by Republican Larry Buell to Democrat John Barnes and Republican Jon Elrod loses to Democrat Mary Ann Sullivan. Democrat DeLaney looks like a safe bet to hold on to the Orentlicher seat in District 86.

UPDATE II: Sen. Mike Young (R) appears to be losing his Indianapolis seat to newcomer Michael Cesnik (D) in District 35. This would be a big upset. UPDATE: With Hendricks votes added, Young finished on top.

UPDATE III: It appears Republicans will sweep all three statewide races now. Republican Greg Zoeller will hold on to a narrow win over Democrat Linda Pence in the attorney general's race. In the Superintendent of Public education race, Republican Tony Bennett will similarly win a very narrow win over Democrat Dick Wood.

UPDATE IV: A few tight races as usual will determine the outcome of control of the Indiana House. Democrats claim they will have at least a 51-seat majority, but Republicans are waiting for the final tally in 4 close races. It would appear the best Republicans could hope for is a 50-50 tie, in which case Gov. Daniels would get to take the tie-breaking vote for Speaker.


Covenant60 said...

So that puts Dems in control of the House with 53 seats? If so, and with Daniels reelected, 2010 will be very interesting. If the GOP has a wave election in two years, gaining say 3 seats, then the GOP can redistrict its way back to the majority for the next decade. Doable.

Obama will not be a popular guy by then.

Anonymous said...

If Obama and Daniels both win Indiana, I fear that this sets up Daniels for a 2012 presidential race.

Gary R. Welsh said...

Not a chance of that happening.

Covenant60 said...

It will be interesting to see whether Sarah Palin and other presidential candidates (Romney? Pawlenty?) start on the chicken dinner circuit in support of GOP candidates in 2010. 2010 should be a very good year fot the GOP. In 1966, after the LBJ blowout (GOP down to 140 in the house, and 33 in the senate) the GOP roared back. Nixon picked up a lot of chits on the campaign trail, which propelled his comeback in 68. Of couse, 1994 was another big GOP year after a newly elected Dem president overreached. And the GOP now appears to have at least 41 Senators, enough to filibuster. Minnesota is seesaw, and Smith is not far behind in Oregon.

jbargeusa said...

How nice it is for me, a long suffering democrat, to see Barack Obama WIN Indiana. Thank you, Advance Indiana, in bringing us together.

Covenant60 said...


if Obama was a stock, now would be the time to sell him short.

Congrats, though.

And thank God there are 44 GOP Senators that can stop some of his goofiest schemes (Card Check, the National Abortion on Demand Act, etc).