Thursday, May 01, 2008
Wright Controversy Taking Its Toll On Obama
If two new polls are any indication, Sen. Barack Obama's standing in the two critical primary states of Indiana and North Carolina is taking a beating after the recent flare up with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. A WRTV poll released today shows Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama, with a 48%-38% margin. An Insider Advantage poll in North Carolina released late yesterday shows Clinton taking the lead for the first time with a 44%-42% edge over Obama. Other recent polls in North Carolina show Obama with a lead, but that lead has shrunk from double digits to single digits in recent days. If Obama loses both of these states on Tuesday, it is unlikely he will win any of the remaining primaries ending with Puerto Rico next month. Obama still looks like he could reach the winning number of delegates even without any future wins, but it could place Democrats in the unenviable position of nominating the candidate who received the lesser share of the popular vote.
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6 comments:
Well, I guess the race is over, Clinton has won. I think those poll results are laughable not to mention apparently flawed. All other reputable polls show these numbers off, by a lot. It dead even in Indiana and Obama is up by over 10 points in North Carolina. I think its important to look at the totality of the polls, and not single out polls that are only avantageous to your anit-Obama position.
Only 60% of those polled in the WRTV poll were Democrats.
tarrandwooley, I covered Howey's poll earlier this week which showed a 2-point Obama lead, but even he concedes in his newsletter today the tide shifted after this latest blow up. The newer polls are all showing fallout.
In the unlikely event that Obama loses both states on Tuesday, he will still win Oregon, Guam, South Dakota and Montana......your gleeful bragging is much too early. Obama will be the nominee.
I don't care how you slice it. RealClearPolitics.com shows the average of all polls. It shows that the average of all polls shows Obama ahead in North Carolina by 7.1% and Clinton leading in Indiana by 4.8%, virtually a tie when you factor in the polling error potential. You were Cherry picking the polls to make it worse than what it actually is.
Again, you are throwing in polls taken before the latest Wright controversy. Those taken afterwards tell an entirely different tale.
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