Sunday, March 23, 2008

Wishful Thinking By Some In 7th District Race

The "political experts" tell the Star's Brendan O'Shaughnessy that the presence of several African-American candidates in the May Democratic primary might split the black vote and pave the way for victory for a white candidate, State Rep. David Orentlicher. "The presence of three well-known black candidates, including Andre Carson, for the 7th District congressional seat could split the black vote in the May primary and open the door to a white candidate," O'Shaughnessy writes. Not surprisingly, Andre Carson isn't worried. "African-American voters are very astute politically," he said the day after his victory in the special election. "That's OK that there are challengers. We're moving forward."

What Carson is trying to tell folks and which he is right about, Carolene Mays and Woody Myers have no support in the black community. They're going to find more support among white voters who don't like David Orentlicher. And keep this important fact in mind. While blacks make up 30% of the voters in the 7th District, they will likely represent nearly a majority, if not an outright majority, of the voters in the Democratic primary. That's because many more white voters choose a Republican primary ballot over a Democratic primary ballot. The unknown variable this year is whether white Republican voters will pick a Democratic ballot instead of a Republican ballot because of the hotly contested presidential race between Clinton and Obama. That could help Orentlicher, but it could just as easily help Myers. Remember, Orentlicher has taken a beating in his past campaigns against well-funded Republicans so he has some higher negatives than the lesser-known Myers. Regardless, you can bet the Center Township vote will come in very big for Carson--a vote which will arrive to be counted a few hours after the polls close when it's known just how big that vote will need to be to ensure a Carson victory.

8 comments:

Wilson46201 said...

There were two stories today in The Star about the 7th CD Primary: the 2nd was the closing section of "Behind Closed Doors". It was noted there that our new Congressman André Carson received noisy and friendly receptions from the crowds gathered at both the Obama and Clinton recent campaign events that he attended.

Wilson46201 said...

Amos Brown has an informed commentary on the 7th CD race at
http://tinyurl.com/2rpxxp

Jon Easter said...

Let's not go the typical shenanigans route here that this conversation usually devolves into. You make some very astute points then start to go off to Mars as usual when you talk about André.

André has a block of voters that will not move. They will support him. That leaves Orentlicher, Myers, Mays, and Hippie Joe (others too) to try to find support. I think they have more of a chance this time because there will be some new voters coming out due to the Presidential primary as well as a hotly-contested gubernatorial race.

However, André has a significant block of support, and he is running as the slated and incumbent candidate.

If this were a one-on-one campaign between André and Orentlicher or Myers...then we'd have something to talk about. The number of candidates favors someone like André who has a tremendous amount of supporters that won't go anywhere.

Just my opinion.

indyernie said...

I know of about twenty five R's who are going to ask for a democrat ballot in May and the list of converts keeps growing. Yours truly is included, care to guess how many of us are going to support Carson?

Wilson46201 said...

So IndyErnie will be a true DemoCrap...

indyernie said...

"So IndyErnie will be a true DemoCrap..."

I'll be very proud to serve side by side with you Wilson...for about ten seconds

Some friends of mine read this post and are joining in...anything to help the cause.

black sheep Mahern said...

Advance Indiana makes some vague accusations accusing Carson of planning on stealing the election and implying that it has been done before. This is nonsense. Show us some proof or stop making ridiculous, groundless allegations.

Joanne J said...

Mr. Easter, I fear you are right on this. I personally will be voting for Woody Myers in May but I would be happy with either Orentlicher or Mays as our representative. If it's Andre, I will be voting for Elrod... yet again.