Monday, December 31, 2007

Predictions for 2008

Okay, here's my best shot at 10 predictions for 2008:

1. Marion County Democrats will slate Andre Carson in the January 12 Democratic caucus to fill his grandmother's seat, turning back a challenge from Rep. David Orentlicher, Rep. Carolene Mays, Dr. Woodrow Myers and Marion Co. Treasurer Mike Rodman. Carson's slating will leave many in the Democratic Party disgruntled.

2. Marion Co. Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will jump into the race for the 7th District congressional race once he realizes Andre Carson is the Democratic choice in the special election. He figures Carson carries with him all of his grandmother's baggage and little of her good will, making him a perfect opponent in the Democratic-leaning district. Jon Elrod steps aside and Brizzi wins the Republican slating.

3. Rep. David Orentlicher decides he's going to run in the May primary, notwithstanding the fact that Andre Carson is slated to run and taps into the anti-Carson sentiment. Democrats and Republicans agree to delay the special election to the May primary. Democrats figure it will allow the party to unite behind a single candidate in a single election, rather than risk having the winner of the special election having to fight it out with a strong opponent in the May primary. Republicans figure the dual election in the May primary will cause mass confusion and infighting among Democrats, helping the ultimate Republican victor.

4. Brizzi will win the Republican nomination and the special election, but he will be defeated in November by the Democratic winner in the primary, Rep. David Orentlicher. It's a Democratic district and both the Democratic presidential candidate and gubernatorial nominee will handily carry the 7th district and Marion County.

5. The Democrats will nominate Jim Schellinger to run for Governor over Jill Long Thompson. Why? Because he's a wealthy, white man just like about all of their gubernatorial nominees over the last several decades.

6. Gov. Mitch Daniels will be re-elected with less than 55% of the vote. Schellinger's engineering firm's ties to costly school construction projects will prove his undoing.

7. The legislature will pass with the support of Gov. Daniels a comprehensive property tax reform package this year, which will include relief taxpayers will see on their 2008 property tax bills. Efforts to repeal the property tax will fail. Very little of the ideas floated by the Kernan-Shepard Commission will be enacted into law in 2008. The legislature will, however, agree to do away with township assessors and pave the way for the elimination of township governance in Marion County. SJR-7, the same-sex marriage ban, will die this year, forcing proponents to start the 4-year process anew.

8. The battle for control of the Indiana General Assembly will include at least a dozen hotly-contested races in the House. Republicans will pick up 2 seats, leaving a 50-50 tie. Because Gov. Daniels will be re-elected, Republicans will get to elect the new Speaker. Democrats will blame the rash of legislative retirements for their loss of control. The Senate will remain safely in the hands of Republicans as it has for many decades.

9. Dr. John McGoff will upset U.S. Rep. Dan Burton in the May Republican primary.

10. Mayor Greg Ballard will stumble in the early months of his administration because his senior advisers are ill-prepared for the task of assisting him, coupled with his own political inexperience. Look for at least a couple of senior staff departures before the administration hardly gets its feet wet. Ballard will be handed a big gift from the Indiana legislature. As part of the property tax plan, look for state help with Indianapolis' pension liability and/or a larger share of COIT revenues for Marion County as part of the plan. This will allow a significant portion of the COIT tax increase revenues to be used for property tax relief instead of new spending. It will also insure the permanency of the COIT increase because its elimination would force higher property taxes. Expect at least 2-3 dissenting Republican councilors to create problems for the Republican-controlled council and the new mayor.

As a bonus prediction suggested by an Advance Indiana reader, CCC Counselor Aaron Haith will be disciplined in response to the complaint filed against him for a conflict of interest in representing individual council members, such as CCC President Monroe Gray, with ethical and legal problems while representing the council.

The prediction I'm most likely to get wrong is the 7th District congressional race. It really is completely up in the air, even though we are two weeks away from the Democrats' caucus. Republicans are clearly holding up on setting a date for their caucus in order to see who the Democrats will nominate. Many, including State Rep. Jon Elrod, believe the party is behind him. If it was truly behind Elrod, it would quickly be setting a date for its own caucus and declare him the party's candidate so he can start raising some serious bucks. The fact it hasn't set a date tells me that the party leaders are playing a wait and see game. If the Democrats nominate a strong candidate for the special election, they'll let Elrod be the sacrificial lamb. If Andre Carson is the nominee, they'll convince a better-known and better-financed GOP candidate like Brizzi to run. Having said that, I still believe Elrod would make a very formidable challenger without the baggage a candidate like Brizzi carries.

34 comments:

Wilson46201 said...

"Because he's a wealthy, white man just like about all of their gubernatorial nominees over the last several decades."

Are you talking about the GOP Presidential candidates or the GOP gobernatorial candidates?

Advance Indiana said...

No, I'm talking about your party's gubernatorial candidates: Hillenbrand, Townsend, Bayh and O'Bannon.

Wilson46201 said...

I seriously doubt if
Brizzi would risk running, knowing it'd likely lead to defeat. Losing looks lousy on a resumé for an overly-ambitious "suit" like Carl Brizzi...

Anonymous said...

He's gotcha, Wilson. I personally know all four. They are as Gary described, without question.

That being said--I think many of your predictions could come true, but not all.

Daniels will do some relatively brave things in the upcoming legislative session, and buck some powerful Republicans in the process. I think he'll have trouble winning another term, whoever the Democratic nominee. Because:

Whoever the Republican nominee for president is, the Bush baggage will be heavy. Whoever the Democratic presidential nominee is, (s)he will do the best his/her party has done in Indiana since 1964's Goldwater debaccle.

I'm not saying the Dem presidential candidate will win Indiana, but it will be closer than any race since 1964, and with some luck, it could happen. Because all the Dem candidates are better than any of the Repub candidates. It rarely happens, but that's the way the stars are aligning now.

Therefore, the typical cushion for the Republican gubernatorial nominee, I think will be largely gone. And Mitch will have pissed away some (even another 1-2% would be troublesome) of his core GOP support.

Hell, if he gets BACK to only pissing off 1-2% of his typical core GOP support, he'd be improving. Now, he's despised by about 12-15% of the typical core GOP supporters.

Why? A variety of things, some of which I don't agree with, but old-line Republicans are hard-headed: some like township government; the toll road residue; and yes, DST.

If my party nominates Jim Schellinger, he will have the school construction baggage, no doubt.

It should be interesting.

I sincerely hope Dr. McGoff does win, but I don't see how he can.

And if my party does indeed nominate Andre, I will consider voting for Rep. Elrod.

Andre simply has not earned his grandmother's seat. It really is that simple. But he's got a huge leg up, no question.

Anonymous said...

great blog...but I did want to point out that (I believe) in the case of a 50-50 split in the House; the majority goes to the party that controls the Secretary of State's office, not the Governor's office.

Advance Indiana said...

anon 6:18, it alternates between the governor's party and the secretary of state's party, depending on which election occurred most recently.

donttrusthim said...

Schellinger's school projects are not the only scrutiny necessary. I'm sure he and his company made plenty of money off the Central library project. He certainly could've named his own price since the original architects were fired and public discontent was high.

Tebaum said...

I thought that crook Aaron Haith was out as attorney for CCC??

Anonymous said...

Carl Brizzi had better consider the fact that his little incident with the naked striper in Miami might just come up during his effort to take the 7th district seat! You see Carl, two can play the game that you and Scott Newman are playing! or did you think that you were the only ones who could gossip?

Anonymous said...

Predictions as to Greg Ballard are not necessary! He has already written his prescription for failure. Thought that he was much smarter than he actually is!
So much for the Marines saving Indianapolis!

Anonymous said...

As usual, thought provoking stuff. I find your 7th district musings fascinating, especially on the Democratic side. Your predictions are plausible but as you say, who knows? I think Brizzi will not make the race. You are right--Mitch will win by about 55%. The Peterson defeat was a big and necessary wake up call for both parties. I think you are being a little hard on Ballard. This town has a lot of talent and it will find it's way to Ballard.

Anonymous said...

Andre in a walk..mark my words..not even close.

Anonymous said...

Open question: who is the most gay friendly candidate on either side of the 7th District race?

Political Science Student said...

AI,

Did you make any political predictions for 2007, 2006, etc? If so, what were those predictions and what kind of success rate do you have?

Anonymous said...

So if Aaron Haith is disciplined for representing both a caucus and the council as a whole, then what about Bob Elrod (father of Jon Elrod) who did it for years for the Republicans and is about to once again represent the Republican caucus and the council as a whole?

Anonymous said...

Your analysis is impeccable. People pay lots of money for this kind of advice.

Anonymous said...

You forget that to run for congress that Brizzi would have to resign as prosecutor......that would be one good way to get rid of a horrible spineless prosecutor who has no chance of winning an election......

Anonymous said...

I seriously doubt if
Brizzi would risk running, knowing it'd likely lead to defeat. Losing looks lousy on a resumé for an overly-ambitious "suit" like Carl Brizzi...

Look what you said about Peterson and Ballard. Your boy Bart was a "shoe-in". Where is he now? Oh, yeah. UNEMPLOYED!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Nothing in the Canon of Judicial Ethics, or the ABA Standards of Conduct, compel Brizzi to resign as prosecutor if he runs for another office.

If he spends a lot of time campaigning for Congress, and shows up less at the office, I'm not sure his staff would notice.

Anonymous said...

Tebaum,

Aaron Haith is out as the council attorney. The dems on the council did vote in caucus to keep him on as the minority attorney. He won't have any authority except to say hi in their caucus. He opinion means nothing in the council chambers now.

Anonymous said...

interesting, AI.

one minor point, however. your #'s 3-4 are not consistent. there is no way that carson could win the caucus on jan 12 and then lose to david o in the special election. the caucus selects the d candidate for the special, notwithstanding the 08 primary.

if the primary and special are on the same day, theoretically carson could win the special, become congressman for the rest of 08, and lose in the primary to another candidate for the 09/10 full congressional term.

the caucus to select a candidate for the special is different from the slating convention run by the local party.

just trying to help...

Advance Indiana said...

Thanks for catching that anon. 10:04. I've made the correction. I believe Brizzi will win the GOP nomination and the special election but lose the November election.

Shofar said...

Anon. 1246 - Haith's conflict is not with representing the CCC and the caucus, but rather in representing the CCC and INDIVIDUAL members of the CCC, both in their varied criminal cases and before the Council itself.

If Orentlicher makes a play for the 7th's seat, and has to run against Little Carson, watch the Carson camp come out swinging and throwing as much trash as possible. They showed many people where they stand with the inclusion of Farrakhan at Grandma's funeral.

Little "C" is a lightweight right now, and needs time to grow. Let him do his time locally, and in a few years he might have the ability to actually lead and be a decent representative in Washington. As he is now (young, no real political experience, possibly elevated to Congress by familial loyalty) he will get eaten alive in D.C.

If Brizzi does make a run for the 7th, he will run into, deservedly, a back lash from many people who want to know why he did nothing about all the corruption in City-County government these past 4 years. However, if he does run, what with his time being taken up with the campaign and his radio show, the MCPO might actually get some things done.

Angry Republican said...

Anonymous wrote:
"I sincerely hope Dr. McGoff does win, but I don't see how he can."

Because a number of republicans like me have been waiting for a candidate to come along to bounce Burton out of Congress.

Counting the days until the May primary...

Anonymous said...

"If Brizzi does make a run for the 7th, he will run into, deservedly, a back lash from many people who want to know why he did nothing about all the corruption in City-County government these past 4 years. However, if he does run, what with his time being taken up with the campaign and his radio show, the MCPO might actually get some things done."

Yeah, right. You obviously didn't work there during his last campaign. You couldn't take a shit without vetting it through Dave Wyser and Lisa Borges. They would then sift through the turds to see if there was anything in your stool that could possibly impact the campaign.

Seriously, look at all the high-profile cases that got resolved in December and January after the election. A lot of those got resolved in favor of the defense. The deputies were told to continue all of these cases until after the election to assure no adverse publicity would affect the campaign.

So glad to be gone!

Anonymous said...

What I would like to know is exactly why local playboy Tim Durham gave $165,000 to Brizzi.
What could Brizzi possibly do for Durham for $165,0000?
BTW, Durham only gave Mitch $50,000so go figure.

Anonymous said...

The prosecutor is bound by the same canon of ethics as judges...the second that he announces for a non judicial office then he must resign as prosecutor ANON 7:09 please double check your research, You are incorrect.

Anonymous said...

not true, for example, goldsmith was prosecutor while he ran for mayor.

Advance Indiana said...

I think Goldsmith actually sat a year out as prosecutor and worked for Dann Pecar while he was running for mayor in 1991.

Wilson46201 said...

If Carl Brizzi has to resign from his job as Prosecutor, it's much more likely he'll not go off on a quixotic run for Congress in a race he's unlikely to win. I still doubt if Brizzi would risk all on the 7th District...it's too much of a gamble! If he loses, he's just another bartender at Harry & Izzy's, not the Marion County Prosecutor...

Political Science Student said...

Anon 5:06, It seems that you're wrong.

Steve Goldsmith was the Prosecutor in 1988 when he ran for Lt. Governor with John Mutz. Steve continued as the Prosecutor until 1990.

It appears that prosecutors can run for other offices while serving.

Source: Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Goldsmith

Anonymous said...

Advance,
I think 6 and 7 r a conflict.
If the gen assemb doesnt do something this short session for property tax concrete/binding/immediate relief for 2008, and reconciliation tax 2007, I think the gov is gone, and the voters clean house, as did in marion cty.
The carl brizzi tale will be interesting to follow...he has, in the last few months followed thru, made statements, and offended some voters. I think dickerson should go for it, or is he saving himself, if baye leave.
just an opinion.

Advance Indiana said...

"I think 6 and 7 r a conflict.
If the gen assemb doesnt do something this short session for property tax concrete/binding/immediate relief for 2008, and reconciliation tax 2007, I think the gov is gone, and the voters clean house, as did in marion cty."

Anon. 2:48, I agree with you. As I said in my prediction, I believe they will come up with a comprehensive plan which will generate real property tax reductions people will see immediately. If it falls short, all bets are off. I'm thinking the politicians are smart enough to figure that out by this point, but they may prove to be as oblivious to it as Peterson was.

Steph Mineart said...

I'd have to vote for Orentlicher over Carson. Whatever Julia wanted, Andre just doesn't have enough experience and needs a few years on the CCC under his belt before he runs for Dist. 7. Running now is overreaching, and despite Julia's influence, I can't see them pulling it off.