Monday, December 17, 2007

The Hill: National GOP Won't Help 7th District Candidate

To the disappointment of 7th District Republicans, The Hill reports that the national GOP will be doing little to help the GOP candidate in a 7th District special election to succeed U.S. Rep. Julia Carson (D) next year. "The death of Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.) on Saturday opens the door to a bullish local GOP in a special election, which is likely to be held early next year," writes Aaron Blake. "But if a Republican hopes to pick up Carson’s Indianapolis-based seat, he or she will likely have to do so without the national party." Blake notes Greg Ballard's upset victory in this year's mayoral race and Carson's poor showing in her last election as indications the Republicans can make the race competitive.

One factor working against national GOP support is former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's decision to leave his seat now rather than complete his term. The GOP has already had to defend seats in special elections in Ohio and Virginia this year, and the special election for Hastert's seat has already heated up. Citing a local GOP source, Blake writes:

“No one is looking to the national party to drop a lot of money in here to try and win this race,” the source said. “Everybody knows that it’s something we’ll have to do on our own, locally.” The NRCC is taking a wait-and-see approach and is not expecting to get involved in the district, which went 58-42 for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.
Blake notes GOP optimism towards the candidacy of State Rep. Jon Elrod, with or without NRCC support. "State Rep. Jon Elrod is currently the GOP standard-bearer after announcing last month that he would challenge Carson," Blake writes. "The 30-year-old pulled off an upset of an incumbent Democrat in 2006, and Republicans say he has the kind of crossover appeal needed in the congressional district." Blake says that Marion Co. Prosecutor Carl Brizzi is probably preferable to local Repubicans over Elrod, but he is not likely to run. I'm not so sure there is any strong sentiment out there for a Brizzi candidacy as Blake suggests. He also says Eric Dickerson is not likely to run. Quoting Marion Co. GOP Chairman Tom John, Blake writes:

Marion County Republican Party Chairman Tom John said Elrod has assured him he will run in the special election. He called Elrod a strong campaigner but suggested the special election could test his fundraising ability.

“Obviously, the amount of money you have to raise for a congressional seat … is much different,” John said. “One of Jon’s big challenges will be raising that kind of money in the amount of time that it takes.”

Blake describes the Democratic field to replace Carson as "much broader and more contentious." He names City-County Councilor Andre Carson and Sheriff Frank Anderson as the leading candidates to replace Carson. He notes Andre has former U.S. Rep. Andy Jacobs' backing. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee declined to discuss the 7th District race with Blake.

Hat tip to Mike Bowman for pointing out this article.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, just which Democrat will you be backing?

Advance Indiana said...

As Julia would have said, anon. 11:30, I ain't got no nickel in that dime.

Anonymous said...

Why do these people keep throwing out Frank Anderson's name? Have they not yet noticed that he doesn't live in the 7th District?

Wilson46201 said...

...but he'll give no quarter!

Anonymous said...

Priceless comeback, Gary. Priceless.

Anonymous said...

Since the republican council went on record on Monday night as favoring the tax hike and refuse to pledge tor repeal it, they are now the high tax republicans...who could support any party like that....no wonder the national GOP wont come in and help this local bunch of liars.

Mike Bowman said...

This could be one reason why Dickerson is not going to run. With him getting very little support last time around and seeing no help from national sources this time he saw the handwriting on the wall.

My guess is we will see a rich republican insider get the nod who can bring his own or be able to quickly tap into other sources during the 60 dy election cycle. And turn around and do it again in May and gain in Nov.

Advance Indiana said...

Mike, I think it is a very short-sighted decision on the part of the GOP. I think the GOP would have a better chance of picking up this seat in the special election than it would in the general election. If a Jon Elrod could win the special election, I'm betting he would be able to establish himself well enough to hold it in the general.

John M said...

While I'm sure it would become a campaign issue, living in the district is not required. A candidate need only be 25 years old and a resident of Indiana.

Anonymous said...

Is Frank Anderson looking to leave his lucrative Sheriff position any time soon?

Anonymous said...

Given Carl Brizzi is openly talking about a run and doesn't live in the district, it might be hard for it to become a campaign issue.

Anonymous said...

did andy horning live in the district when he ran as a republican 3 years ago? i don't think he did. he did surprisingly well with no official party backing. i know the environment is totally different now but i don't recall anyone even mentioning that then.

Anonymous said...

you don't have to live in the district to run - if you win, all you have to do is move into the district before taking office. This is due to the realignment of districts every 10 years.

Angry Republican said...

Anonymous said:
"you don't have to live in the district to run - if you win, all you have to do is move into the district before taking office. This is due to the realignment of districts every 10 years."

Absolutely untrue. You don't have to live in the congressional district at all. At any point. At any time. You need only meet the age requirement (25), be a citizen of the U.S. for 7 years, and reside in the *state.* (See Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.) This has nothing to do with redistricting.

AR