Thursday, December 27, 2007

Daniels Stalls 7th District Announcement

By law, Gov. Mitch Daniels is required to call a special election to fill a vacancy in an Indiana congressional district within 60 days of a congressional member's death. Eleven days after the death of the late Rep. Julia Carson in Indiana's 7th congressional district, his office has still not scheduled a special election, which is expected to take place by early March. Party leaders are expected to meet as soon as mid-January to slate a candidate for their respective parties in the special election. A call to Gov. Daniels' office this morning yielded no clues on when he will make an announcement. Daniels is obviously stalling his decision for the benefit of someone. Just who it is isn't real clear.

The scenario playing out is going to make for a very compressed election schedule. Observers think there's a lot of backroom maneuvering taking place within both the Republican and Democratic parties right now over who their respective candidates will be in the special election. Special attention is being paid to achieve an outcome least likely to lead to a divisive primary battle in May to run in the general election. Don't be surprised if perceived front-runner candidates are pushed to the side in favor of alternative candidates. Interestingly, not a single candidate has filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC despite the fact that there are declared candidates in the race. Any serious candidate is going to have to raise some big bucks real fast if he or she is serious about winning this race. Federal law requires a candidate to file with the FEC within 15 days of raising a paltry sum of $5,000.

UPDATE: State Rep. Jon Elrod (R) tells Advance Indiana he has filed his statement of candidacy, although it has not yet appeared on the FEC's online database.

UPDATE II: State Rep. David Orentlicher (D) has filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC for the 7th District race, as has probation officer Wayne Harmon (R).

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Who?

Speculation: Brizzi

Evidence: focus on heart of 7th CD with attention to the Phoenix

Anonymous said...

Brizzi? They might as well paint a target on that man's back for the Dems to shoot at.
Brizzi has been, without question, the worst Prosecutor this town has seen since...........well, all the Prosecutors before him.
Would you vote for Brizzi? Why would you vote for Brizzi?
More to come on the Phoenix Apartments and it won't benefit Brizzi.

Anonymous said...

as a loyal democrat, I hope it is Brizzi...what a sleazeball and an easy target...the dirt will flow

Wilson46201 said...

Brizzi's a very smart and very ambitious politician -- smart enough not to throw himself into a losing race. John Kerry took the 7th with 58% of the vote - Melina Kennedy also beat Carl Brizzi in the precincts of the 7th.

Running and losing a major race is not good on the resume of an ambitious politician like Carl Brizzi!

Wilson46201 said...

The Libertarian Party can also nominate their candidate for the Special Election in March. Others will have to get about 4000 signatures of registered voters on petitions to make the ballot...

Anonymous said...

Wilson, you're mostly right, but, you miss a very improtant point:

The compressed schedule, as Gary calls it, is vital. If my Democratic Party nominates or caucuses or slates or, what the hell ever, Andre Carson, it'll be because of that schedule. Inside that 60 days will be a caucus, slating and a special election, then the primary another 60 days out. We could see all kinds of nonsense.

Which, make no mistake, benefits Andre.

And in a special, typically, only about 15-18% of voters step up, if that. In a district where Center Township has to work to get out 20-25% in most REGULAR elections, a special would likely see even more voter apathy.

Easier for a few folks to control the outcome.

Carl Brizzi has as much chance in a special as anyone. I saw him getting fitted for some new suits at Nordstrom's big sale yesterday, sans security detail.

Then, of course, right back to Harry & Izzi's.

Wilson46201 said...

Elrod's filing is now on the FEC online database. He filed promptly on Sunday, Dec. 16th, the day after Congresslady Julia Carson died.

Nidal J. Mohabian said...

Not to stir the pot Wilson but John Kerry's numbers in the 7th are yesterday's news.
Ask soon to be ex-Mayor Peterson about the turnout in those areas for him and his council.

Hold on to you hoodie Wilson because there is a very strange trend going on in the 7th. White people are voting again.

Brizzi can't win because he's........well, Brizzi. But the truth is, the white majority in the 7th want their representation back and they'll get it too.

The only numbers that matter are the ones at the end of the general election day.

The race in the 7th is going to be about race and corruption. White voters in this city are fed up and they are voting again. The black voting block doesn't exist. It's gone. 1960's politics are gone!

You and your buddies want to run a Black Muslim for Congress in a majority white district then have it. Good luck finding contributors....and votes.

Anonymous said...

I would guess less then 12% of the voters will show up to vote in the special election. Total party control?

Wilson46201 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

GARY,

WILSON'S PERSONAL HATE POSTS NEED TO END!!!!
HIS RACISTS REMARKS ARE MORE THAN WE NEED TO TAKE.
REMOVE THE REMARKS HE MADE ABOUT NIDAL!

Wilson46201 said...

"Nidal J. Mohabian" did everything except shout White Power! Yes, the politics of the 60s is over, the old segregationists lost. Get over it!

Anonymous said...

Thank you Gary.

Anonymous said...

Please remove Wilson's constant racist posts. They have no place on your excellent blog.

Anonymous said...

This is all very interesting. The political question that must be answered is: Will the voters in the 7th District support a current or past member of the Nation of Islam?
Can a Black Muslim win the 7th District.
We debate about a Mormon and the Presidency so what about a debate about a Black Muslim candidate. Is the Black Muslim representative of the majority in the 7th District?

Anonymous said...

Actually, the segregationists in Indianapolis won. They just simply moved out of Marion County and left the city a wasteland except for downtown where they are still making money off the people that still live here.
I believe Ballard hired some of them too.

Wilson46201 said...

André Carson is what I jokingly call a "Methodist Muslim" - he's a very conventional mainline, non-radical Muslim. He is not a member of the Nation of Islam, the so-called "Black Muslims". The vast majority of African-American Muslims in this country are not "Black Muslims". The Feds checked out André very thoroughly before he could work on the Indiana Homeland Security taskforce. He was a law enforcement officer for nine years before his new job...

confused said...

Was Andre Carson formerly a part of the Nation of Islam? Did he then leave the nation to become a traditional Muslim? Farakhan's endorsement at Julia's funeral won't help clear this up in the general public's mind, tho...

Anonymous said...

You all are getting off the point of the post. Here's something to consider. Which prominent African American businessman was on Mitch's transition team and has a relative in the running? How might a delay help that person? If the nomination is taken out of the hands of the precinct committee people and thrown into a primary election - who benefits? I'd say, it's reasonable to assume a greater advantage is given to the person with the most cash.

Wilson46201 said...

The Congressional race is a Federal election and thus under Federal campaign contribution limits. The richest uncle in the world (like anybody else) can only donate $2300 maximum to a Federal candidate.

Having wealthy relatives helps in a Hoosier election (ask Bart Peterson's dad) but provides no particular advantage in a Federal election...

Anonymous said...

Direct donations, yes. Friends, partnerships, LLC's, business acquaintances, law firms, 529's, party donations and a whole bunch of other threads bound together to make a very strong and powerful rope. Rich uncles do make a difference.

Anonymous said...

Wilson, you are a great numbers cruncher....what were the results in the 7th district in this year's mayor´s election.....PETERSON..how many votes? Ballard ..how many votes.....I dont really know but it was a horrible year for us and if we[the Dems] carried it or came close then the special election should favor us.....help me out.

Anonymous said...

Peterson won in the 7th district. Not by as much as he did last time--Center basically sat on its hands.

Almost 12,000 fewer straight-ticket Dem votes county-wide. There's the difference right there.

Anonymous said...

Where in the world was Andre Carson a law enforcement officer for eight years before his current job?

Center Township Trustee security does NOT count. In fact, it's a belly-laugh.

Wilson46201 said...

André Carson was a Local Board Officer/Investigator for the Indiana State Excise Police for nine years -- and also detailed to the Indiana Homeland Security Center.

Anonymous said...

Although Andre is not my first choice, he is well qualified to be in congress. It is obvious from hate attacks on local blogs that most dont even know him and seem to be making up stuff just to throw at him. He is my city councilor and I am proud of that...Greg Porter is my first choice but if the choice of the precinct committeepeople is Andre, I can honestly and enthusiastically support him.