Sunday, December 31, 2006

Predictions For 2007

I've got a pretty checkered record when it comes to making accurate predictions, but I'll give my best shot at what I think is going to happen in 2007.

1. Mayor Bart Peterson will undeservedly be re-elected to a third term as mayor--by default. Peterson and Gov. Mitch Daniels enjoy a good relationship, and they both want re-elected to their respective jobs. A lot of Democrats think Peterson is their best candidate to defeat Daniels in 2008. My instincts tell me a deal has been cut. Daniels and a few key Republicans will make sure that Peterson does not face a serious, well-funded opponent for mayor. In exchange, Peterson will not challenge Daniels in 2008. To those of you who scoff at the suggestion such a deal could happen, I can only say you don't know much about politics.

2. Republicans will nominate City-County Councilor Isaac Randolph as their sacrificial lamb in the 2007 mayoral election. He will lack the money and organizational effort necessary to win.

3. Democrats will retain control of the City-County Council. I believe they will pick up at 1-2 seats. The Bradford seat will likely change to the Democrats. Randolph's seat will also likely flip to the Democrats. Republicans' lack of organization, good candidates and general disarray will contribute to their losses.

4. Democrats will pick former Peterson chief of staff Mike O'Connor to succeed Ed Treacy as Marion Co. Democratic chairman. His candidacy could be met with opposition from forces loyal to Rep. Julia Carson (explained below).

5. Republicans will pick attorney Tom John to replace Mike Murphy as GOP chairman. He will find it very difficult to put together a credible effort in the 2007 municipal elections with Republican powers-that-be loyal to Peterson being his biggest impediment. Finding volunteers and precinct committeepersons will become even more difficult with the GOP now controlling but one county office--perhaps the weakest it's been in the past century.

6. Rep. Julia Carson will resign her seat in Congress due to her worsening health problems, triggering a special election, which could be timed to coincide with the city's municipal elections. This will set off a scramble among Democrats to choose her replacement, which will take place at a district convention. Carson would like to see her grandson, Andre Carson, take her place. His chances are better in an election of Democratic committeepersons than an open primary at which any Democratic voter could vote. Mike O'Connor and other Democrats likely will favor someone other than Carson, which is the reason he may have opposition in his bid to become county chairman. My betting is the Democrats, if this scenario plays out, will choose someone other than Carson. Republican Eric Dickerson will make another run for the open seat, but he'll need the support of his party to get on the ballot this time. The candidates chosen by each party at a district convention would face off in a special election.

7. Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will have a busy year handling problems with other public officials, including the coroner and Center Township Trustee's office. Brizzi will be successful in his efforts to get Indiana to adopt a hate crimes law.

8. Governor Daniels will fail in his efforts to privatize the Hoosier Lottery.

9. Governor Daniels will succeed in passing a bipartisan initiative to provide health insurance for the uninsured, which will be funded by an increase in the cigarette tax.

10. Governor Daniels' popularity will improve as the year progresses, largely because he must adopt a more bipartisan approach in his governing style.

I'm probably way off the mark with some of these predictions, but it's fun making them and hearing peoples' reaction to them.


Wilson46201 said...

Concerning Congresslady Carson resigning: I doubt it. If she did, the Governor picks the timing of the special election which has to be by the general voting public. Special elections are usually very hurried affairs - it's doubtful there'd be time to have a special party convention to slate anybody as the recommended candidate.


Gary R. Welsh said...

I didn't say there wouldn't be a general "special" election, but the last time there was a vacancy in a congressional seat--the old Quayle seat--the two candidates, Heath (R) and Long (D), were selected at a district-wide convention of precinct committeepersons. Long defeated Heath in the special election.

Anonymous said...

From "The Hill" 12/13/06
Julia Carson lingers in “nougatocity”

Lawmakers of course know they are not permitted to eat, drink or smoke on the House floor. But who was going to have the nerve to stop Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.) last week as she was wheeled onto the floor for a vote wearing dark rose-colored sunglasses and happily unwrapping and eating a Snickers bar?
She began eating the Snickers off the floor in the Speaker’s Lobby but continued eating once on the floor. Was she having a “substantialicious” moment, as Snicker’s new ad campaign indicates? Or was she undergoing a “hungerectomy”?
Carson’s spokesman, Chad Chitwood, did not respond to requests for information about the congresswoman’s apparent affection for Snickers. Carson had heart-bypass surgery in 1996, but both she and her aides have said she is healthy. Carson has recently been using a wheelchair.
Lawmakers are not permitted to eat or drink on the House floor, but they do it anyway, according to a security source close to the floor.
“You’ll see them bring in cups of coffee,” the source said, adding, “They’re not supposed to drink, they’re not supposed to eat, wear coats, talk on the phone. They’re not supposed to do any of that.”

Anonymous said...

Don't worry about perdictions beign wrong. They're free and fun. But if you think Peterson and Daniels cut that kind of deal, you don't know much about Indiana politics.

As for the county Democratic chair, Ms. Carson has not been a fan of Mr. O'Connor in the past. She doesn't need extra reasons to oppose him, or, if he is selected, to ignore him.

Ike is already running for mayor, which is stupid on his part. If he ran for re-election to the council, he'd have a tough time, but he should win. He'd have a platform. I get the sense if you cut off Ike's platform you might as well strangle him. He'll wither and die on the vine...he loves the sound of his own voice so much.

But you overlook the obvious reason for Peterson's re-election in 07: his popularity is at 70%. That's difficult to walk away from.

And, I wasn't aware Carl Brizzi was in favor of hate crimes legislation, let alone pushing it.
Good for him.

Either you're confused about the process by which a COngressperson is selevted in case a vacancy occurs, or your writing cnfused me. Maybe both.

Wilson is right. (Notice he did not say a word about the potential for such a vacancy--very telling). The governor would set the date for a special election should a vacancy occur. Each party would select its nominee.

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Anonymous said...

Most of your predictions make sense. The don't defeat Mayor Bart to keep him from running for Gov doesn't make sense. Mayor Bart is known quantity in only two places - here in Marion County and up in The Region where he's gone many times for fundraising and the McDermotts are potentially his running mate.

I think we'll see Vi Simpson make a run for Guv before Bart would be successful at it. After all Indy mayors are not successful statewide office seekers. Just ask Steve Goldsmith.

Wilson46201 said...

Lighten up, Darla! It's not the end of the world...

Gary R. Welsh said...

If Peterson planned to run for Governor in 08, he wouldn't run for re-election as mayor. It's too risky because of all the things which can blow up in your face during the election. The best example was Goldsmith's problems in dealing with the downtown police brawl in the middle of his race against Frank O'Bannon.

Anonymous said...

Poor AI. Such a "Sukka". Brizi's "people' tell AI he's going to support hate crime legislation. Only after almost being beat by a candidate with half the dollars who raised this issue and afer lying to people the first time that he'd make an effort (which he blew off). AI, just watch Brizzi "try" to make sure that hate crime applies to sexual orientaiton. Have you heard about Brizzi's anti gay comments overheard at Ruth's Chris. You're a sucker AI.

Wilson46201 said...
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Gary R. Welsh said...

I see Kennedy's campaign manager, Tim Moriarty, still hasn't gotten over his candidate's loss. I'm still waiting for an explanation from him about why it's okay for Mary Moriarty-Adams to have such hostility towards gays and lesbians. Spreading lies about Brizzi won't help anyone's efforts to kill the hate crimes legislation--so whoever's doing it should knock it off.

Anonymous said...

Mary Bridgette M. Adams does not have hostility toward gays and lesbians. Or anyone, for that matter.

She is a deeply reliigious Catholic, and that has colored her view.

She is receptive, polite and helpful, on gay-related issues, tho.

But the HRO was just a little too much for her. And if her vote were needed ,I have a sneaking suspicion she'd have been there.

Anonymous said...

I corresponded with Councillor Moriarity during the HRO debate.

She was cold, condescending, and almost mean in her response to my request for support. It was my perception that she was someone who had no respect for gay people for some deep and very personal reason.

I would be glad to share her e-mail response if anyone would like to make their own interpretation. I was very surprised because I had always heard that she was a nice person grounded in her religion rather than one who worships in a faith based in hate and bigotry. Her position on the HRO lacked any compassion or thoughtful understanding.

Anonymous said...

It has been awhile since I lived in Indiana, but isn't the mayor limited by law to two terms? I believe that was what caused Goldsmith to not server a third term.

Gary R. Welsh said...

The law was changed when Hudnut was mayor. I believe he served 4 terms.