Monday, February 01, 2016

Cruz Wins Iowa, Clinton And Sanders Split Title

The earlier conventional wisdom that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) would carry the Iowa Republican Caucus turned out to hold true. Cruz garnered 28% of the vote compared to the 24% share Donald Trump received for his second-place finish and the 23%  share captured by the third-place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). A record number of voters turned out for the Republican caucuses this year, including many first-time voters. The more than 180,000 casting votes tonight was nearly double the number of Republican caucus voters in 2012. Trump until recently appeared to be a long-shot winner in the Hawkeye State, which has not been good at picking Republican presidential winners. Reagan (1980), George H.W. Bush (1988), John McCain (2008) and Mitt Romney (2012) all lost Iowa before going on to win the Republican nomination.

The result this year was more like the 2012 Republican caucus result than some had predicted. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), the early favorite of many ideological and evangelical conservatives in 2012, narrowly defeated Mitt Romney and Ron Paul with 25% of the vote, compared to Romney's 24% share and Paul's 22% share. In 2008, Gov. Mike Huckabee easily won Iowa with 34% of the vote compared to Mitt Romney's 25.2%. Sen. McCain finished a distant fourth in Iowa in 2008 with only 13% of the vote behind third-place finisher Sen. Fred Thompson. According to the latest polls in the first-in-the nation primary, New Hampshire, Cruz is currently running a distant second behind Trump, who is getting about a third of the vote in New Hampshire, and Rubio is trailing even further behind in single-digits. Trump played up in his concession speech tonight the fact that he had been encouraged to skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire because so many viewed the state as beyond his reach to give the appearance of exceeding expectations despite some recent polls suggesting he had a small lead over Cruz.

The interesting story out of Iowa on the Republican side is the fact that more than 2/3 of those who cast votes today in the Republican caucuses voted for an anti-establishment candidate when you add in the nearly 10% of the vote captured by fourth-place finisher Dr. Ben Carson, who appears to be suspending his campaign, along with Gov. Huckabee, after his disappointing showing tonight after polls several months ago gave him a lead over the Republican field. Marco Rubio is as close to an establishment candidate as you get in the top four finishers in Iowa. This story hasn't been picked up much by the national media, but keep your eyes on the gay rumors enveloping Rubio. These stories have been percolating below the surface for a number of months and have now started going viral on the Internet, particularly after investigative reporter Wayne Madsen provided evidence he had gathered confirming those rumors. Rubio is married with children and opposes same-sex marriages, but he may face unwanted questions about his sexual orientation in the coming weeks based on the latest reporting on this issue.

The bigger story tonight is the Democratic race in Iowa where Sen. Bernie Sanders has essentially tied Hillary Clinton in the race to win Iowa delegates. There is less than one percent of the delegate count separating Sanders and Clinton. Clinton's slight advantage is less than one-half of 1%. Iowa Democrats only count delegates awarded at its caucuses; it does not provide a vote tally of the actual voters who show up to participate in the caucuses. The Sanders' campaign is urging the Democratic Party to release the raw vote figures since his campaign believes he won tonight's popular vote, if not the delegate vote count. Sanders had until recently been behind Clinton by double-digit margins. Not surprisingly, Sanders is declaring victory based on his unexpected showing. Recent polls suggest he has a small lead over Clinton in New Hampshire, and his showing tonight will only give him momentum going into that first primary race. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) is suspending his campaign after his failure to win any delegates tonight, making this a 2-candidate race already.

Here's the Republican delegate breakdown:


Here's the Democratic delegate breakdown:



Pete Boggs said...

Berne 'n Bush will make for an interesting ticket...

Anonymous said...

Isn't Bernie Jewish? He is most likely not electable? Just sayin.

Clinton breathing a big sigh of relief, lol. Bernie beat her face in. He s getting momentum..

Cruz smoked the Donald! Trump was too cocky... Sort of like Ballard pounding Peterson.

LamLawIndy said...

C'mon, Gary...had the Madsen account been substantiated by hard evidence, affidavits, etc., then Charlie Christ would've used it in 2010 to bludgeon Rubio.

Additionally, the Madsen piece seems to argue that there was no reason to leave Cuba in 1956 because Batista was in charge, but Castro's guerillas began large-scale recruitment in 1952 & combat operations in 1953. It's not unreasonable for prescient Cubans to have left in 1956 given the armed conflict: if I see black smoke in the building, I'm not waiting until I feel heat and see flames to leave.

Finally, what does it matter if Rubio's parents worked for Meyer Lansky in Vegas? If a candidate's parental lineage somehow affects performance in office, I've yet to see the proof thereof.

There are solid policy reasons to argue against Rubio without resorting to inuendo.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Gary, you nailed something the DC Beltway pundit politicians, pretend journalists, and group think commentariats mostly missed by a mile: "The interesting story out of Iowa on the Republican side is the fact that more than 2/3 of those who cast votes today in the Republican caucuses voted for an anti-establishment candidate."

SNL, Bill Maher, Jon Stewart, moronic Stephen Colbert, and the psychotic, totally detached from reality Debbie Wasserman-Schultz will soon be heard screeching that the sky is falling with Ted Cruz's win over Donald Trump.

And if Lifetime Liar Achievement Award Winner Hillary Rodham Clinton can barely squeak by a privileged, aged, white, wealthy socialist who has been in politics since 1981 and in Congress since about 1990, what does THAT really say about leftist liberal icon Hillary Clinton's appeal to the United States of America? THAT is your big story. Could it mean she is a weak candidate with little overall appeal whose only, ONLY, reason to be elected POTUS is that she is female and that is just not enough "cred" for thinking voters? No doubt in my mind that the Clinton Political Machine will pull out ever dirty political trick in the book to elect her.

This rush away from the political establishment is locally reflected in the wholesale grass roots stampede from the Marion County GOP and the MCRCC- and perhaps Jeff Cardwell's State GOP. RINO's wannabe-kingmakers like Jennifer Ping perched as a front gal for the actual muscled political power brokers and her south side comrade Spear may have a victory or two with a chess piece candidate but overall- a tough sell for Marion County voters now on to the truth.

Anonymous said...

Will "Jeb!" finally realize he is "Finished!"...and... the heck could illegal aliens supporter Gang of Eight "Really RINO But Pretend Conservative" Marco Rubio ever finish third...?

Gary R. Welsh said...

Carlos, Rubio has much invested in a family narrative. A part of any vetting process should include verifying a candidate's family narrative when they make it such a big part of their campaign. If his family came here to work for organized crime instead of fleeing Castro, that makes a big difference to a lot of people. Rubio himself tied himself to Angel Barrios--got arrested with him under seedy circumstances and roomed with him in college. He used his clout years later to help Barrios secure a realtor's license. This is the same guy that infuriated a residential neighborhood when he allowed a home he owned in a nice Miami neighborhood to be used to house multiple gay porn actors to live stream and produce gay pornography. Rubio also made the foam party incident a story of speculation when people figured out that the only foam parties he could have been attending in South Beach in 1995 were taking place at gay night clubs. He's staked out a socially conservative position on issues that's going to make anything in his private life contrary to his public views fair game.

Gary R. Welsh said...

That was actually his brother-in-law who he helped get the real estate license, the one who was convicted for his role in a major cocaine trafficking ring in South Florida. His brother-in-law was considered the number 2 or number 3 guy in the organization.

LamLawIndy said...

Well, Gary, if it is used to attack the "family man" narrative (a type of impeachment, I guess, in trial terms), then I might see the relevance of the Barrios story.

I still fail to see the relevance of the reason for his family's flight from Cuba: His family could've left Cuba both to flee Castro AND to work for Meyer Lansky. It's not a binary choice. Moreover, it occurred 15 years before his birth!

And, again, I think there are enough policy reasons to argue against Rubio such that one need not even touch the Barrios story.

Unknown said...

Cruz people lied about Carson dropping out so they could pick up his delegates at the caucuses. Watch and read the facts today. Politics is a dirty business, I know I was involved in it in Hamilton County.

Anonymous said...

Since I know that Trump got an advance copy of Ann Coulter's Adios, America, her book exposing the media cover up and lies concerning illegal immigration and who was in favor of it, it explains her support of Trump. On his part, after vetting her findings, and seeing the force of her conclusions, he decided to enter the lists with the main purpose of destroying the Republicans who had signed on to the ChamberPot of Commerce position of Amnesty and unrestricted entry. From the beginning he took on Jeb Bush and beat him up over this one issue and he beat up Rubio as well over this same issue and Rubio's laying down with dogs and picking up fleas. Not saying that Trump is a single issue guy but the club he has used with success has saved us from another Bush (Wilsonian idealism mixed with Progressivism and Neo Conservatism posing as intellect). It is clear to me that the same club would be used to beat up on the bag lady who used to wear pant suits but has now moved on to tent suits. As for Rubio, no program, no core values, a JFK like eye candy for the distaffs. He argues well, thinks fast, too fast because principles held are meant to be barriers to instant gratification. His batting average isn't high enough for this current game but he could just admit error and has plenty of time to regroup for another cycle or two.
I don't think Trump would serve a full term....part of his ego is to demonstrate his difference. He would go in with the idea of fixing major problems (see Mitch) and then getting back to golf and estate planning. So, his VP choice becomes a very great interest instead of being an afterthought.

Flogger said...

The establishment made their choices about a year ago it would be Bush vs $hillary.
The "pundits" read establishment McMega-Media have been ignoring, ridiculing and engaged in thinly disguised condescension of the Sanders Campaign from the get go. The $hillary faction in the McMega-Media and the Establishment Wall Street Democrats are going to go into high gear to do what they can to downplay Sanders remarkable showing in Iowa. The $hillary campaign will need to activate their surrogates to make their attack dog statements that the McMega-Media will be all to willing to air.
I just wonder when Bush will throw in the towel?? Right now his campaign is like a junk bond.

Anonymous said...

I was never a fan of Donald Trump although I did -and do- admire that he sticks up for himself- something our closeted weak quisling in the White House would never do except for a fellow communist. And I do believe that M Kelly drank the Kool Aid is now little more than bimbo on a track purely for personal glory and ratings.

When Trump started trash talking others from a left liberal POV is when the guy totally lost me.

And yes, that Sanders made such a huge advance and came within millimeters of defeating Hillary Clinton, perhaps one of the greatest liars in American history, says just how damn lousy a national candidate the old lady really is. Could American left of center liberalism be in its death throes?

Anonymous said... What is said here of the National Republicans seems to apply also to the Indiana versions of Republicans. The rich get the spoils, the poor get freebies, and the middle class gets the bills.

Anonymous said...

Another shoe has dropped with the release of a second full-faced photo of Marco representin' the Foam Party. Seems that Rubio is another closeted gay basher open to be wired like a puppet on a string. Certainly. he is not my Flava to be on the Senate Intelligence Committee or a candidate for the Presidency. Of course, all we had to choose in the first place was a Republican trail mix of fruits and nuts.