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Sunday, September 07, 2008
McCain-Palin Now On Top In Polls
A series of polls taken following the Republican National Convention show that Sen. John McCain has closed the gap and taken a lead over Sen. Barack Obama, who some polls suggested was leading by as much as 8 percentage points following the Democratic National Convention. A USA Today/Gallup poll shows McCain leading Obama 54%-44%, his biggest lead in any polls to date. Zogby has McCain up 49.7%-47.1% over Obama post-convention. The Gallup Tracking poll has McCain up 3 points, 48%-45%, and Rasmussen's tracking poll has the two tied at 48%. McCain leads the Real Clear Politics average by 1%, or 46.7%-45.7%.
I was really bummed for about 10 seconds, then I looked at the poll and found this:
ReplyDeleteMcCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
"Likely voter" screens for this election are going to be very difficult, as they tend to under-sample the young and minority voters, key Obama constituencies. This election is likely to be much closer to the "registered voter" polls than the "likely voter" polls.
Good for McCain, I hope they start acting like they're 10 points ahead now. It will make it easier for us to surprise them in the end.
Vox, is right but for the wrong reason. The problem is the polls don't meansure intensity of the support, which affects the likelihood that person will vote. In that area, Obama has a huge advantage.
ReplyDeleteAs far as polling undersampling minotirites and young people, any credible pollster isn't going to do that. However,there is a caveat based on new technology. Many young people have cell phones today and they wouldn't be on many pollsters lists.
I want to see McCain Palin get serious about the economy. McCain is on record stating he intends to bring the smartest minds in the country to their cabinet.
ReplyDeleteWell, he ignored 15,000 conservatives that travelled to Minneapolis to attend Dr. Paul's convention during the RNC. He also ignores Dr. Paul (other than to negotiate for his delegates and then have secret service take their buttons and literature at the RNC).
I would like to see the McCain campaign working with the former U.S. comptroller David Walker who recently appeared on a national town hall panel with Warren Buffet and a representative of the Cato Institute.
McCain's campaign is still light on long reaching economic solutions and has not addressed the debt, which according to our former comptroller is $53 trillion which included unfunded liabilities and excludes the recent Freddie Mac Fannie Mae bailout.
I think I am going to reserve my McCain vote until I see who he works with on the economy.
Votes for Bob Barr in Indiana could cause McCain to lose our state. We need to use this leverage to force real economic reform.
that is still a big convention bounce by historical standards.
ReplyDeleteAmong RVs, from 7 down to 4 up is 11 points. Obama's bounce was 4 (from 3 up to 7 up.)
To be sure, Gore had a similar bounce at his convention in 2000 (which followed the Bush bounce of about 6 or so that year).
You may be right about the pool of respondents, and how likely voters may unerrepresent the voting public this year.
I think AA votes will sigificantly increase this year. But I am not persuaded that the "youth vote" will be all that. Again. It never is.
Don't count out the energized GOP base. This latest poll, btw, indicates that GOP voter ID has leapt substantially. Moreover, it indicates that the gap between voters who intend to vote D for Congress over those who intend to vote R has shrunk dramatically to just 3 points.
All this stuff is just a snapshot. Voter intent and the makeup of the electorate is always dynamic.
But you need to remind yourself that over time, for the past 30 years or so) the GOP candidate usually gains support from the conventions to Election Day. (Reagan in 80 and 84, Bush I in 88 and Bush II in 00 and 04)
Plus, remember that only TWO Democrats since FDR were able to reach 50% of the vote in a general election. Just two. And only one (Carter... barely) since 1964.
I think it is telling that Obama even after his supposedly successful convention could barely get to 50% in a couple of polls. Even Dukakis had around 55% I recall.
I don't think the next 8 weeks are going to be kind to The One's prospects.
The Dems keep nominating weak lawyerly left wing candidates. Adlai was the prognenitor of the breed. The Dems did OK with fighters like Truman, Southerners like LBJ and Carter and Clinton.
But Boston Brahmin liberals (Dukakis, Kerry) and Chicago Hyde Park street agitators (Obama) are not the ticket.
The fact is, and I don't mean this in a mean spirited way... I think this is really happening.....
People are coming to the conclusion that Sarah Palin is more of a man, and would make a stronger President, than Barack Obama.