7th District Democratic Primary Heating Up

Former U.S. Rep. Andy Jacobs' (D) unexpected, early endorsement of Andre Carson to replace an ailing U.S. Rep. Julia Carson has set off a flurry of phone calls among 7th District Democratic leaders. A Democratic source tells me there are now no fewer than eight (8) Democrats pondering a bid for the 7th District seat. With her health rapidly declining and the increasing likelihood she will not be able to return to work, there is also a possibility of a special election, which could coincide with Indiana's May primary. The Democrats will meet early next year to slate a candidate. In the event of a special election, the slated candidate would be running to fill the balance of Carson's term against whoever the Republicans slate, and for the right to run as the Democratic candidate in the November general election. It is unlikely all the losing candidates in slating will drop their bids to become their party's general election nominee. The field could be quite crowded.

You've heard the names of Carl Drummer, Carolene Mays, Greg Porter, Joanne Sanders, Melina Kennedy, David Orentlicher, Dr. Woody Myers and Robin Winston, but there is yet another serious candidate who may emerge. A source says Terry Thurman, executive VP of the United Auto Workers, is seriously considering a bid for the seat. Thurman is a former DNC member known to several prominent, national Democrats, including the Clintons, Al Gore and John Edwards. The source believes Thurman would get considerable labor support and money if he decided to run. Another surprise candidate is Marion Co. Treasurer Mike Rodman, who tells the Star today he plans to run if Carson doesn't run for re-election.

Sources indicate Democrats are fuming over Jacobs' announced support for Carson yesterday. They are thoroughly convinced Carson intends to wait until the last possible moment to make the announcement she is stepping aside to make it difficult for other potential candidates to compete against Carson in slating. As a consequence, candidates aren't going to wait for her announcement to jump into the race. The potentially divisive primary could make it difficult for the ultimate Democratic nominee to win in November, particularly if the African-American community is disappointed by the outcome.

Things are also very uncertain on the GOP side. While first-term Rep. Jon Elrod has already announced his candidacy, some Republicans are waiting to see what Eric Dickerson will do. Dickerson has extremely high name recognition from his close race against Carson last year. A GOP opponent like Elrod may be forced to spend big bucks in a primary to overcome Dickerson's advantage. Recall that Dickerson, without going through GOP slating last year, crushed the GOP's slated candidate, Ron Franklin. Dickerson, however, has been nearly invisible since his loss to Carson last year. A prominent 7th District Republican, who supported Dickerson's 2006 bid and was hopeful Dickerson would run again, told me recently that Dickerson had ignored repeated phone messages he left with him inquiring about his 2008 intentions.

On one other note, I just couldn't let this Jim Shella statement on his blog pass without comment. Shella, writing about Carson, says "The voters knew Carson was ill when they re-elected her so no one should be surprised with the current circumstance." He adds, "Of course, Julia knew she was sick, too." "It didn't have to end this way." Sorry, Jim, but most of the voters did not know Carson was ill during the last election. Blogs like this one tried to draw attention to the health issue, but mainstream reporters like Shella refused to report on it. It wasn't until after the election that any of them openly discussed it. And most of the mainstream reporters have been very slow to discuss obvious efforts by she and her staff to cover up the extent of her current health problems.