An IndyStar online poll today shows online readers favoring Republican Greg Ballard by a two-to-one margin over Mayor Bart Peterson (D), or 60%-30%. It's not a scientific poll, but it is a continuing pattern. In every instance where an online poll has been conducted by local media during this mayoral campaign, Greg Ballard has been shown the favorite by a comfortable margin. What it tells me is that Ballard's supporters are much more enthusiastic about their support of Ballard than Peterson's supporters are of him.
If the turnout in the November election is as low as some predict, it could spell bad news for incumbents. Conventional wisdom tells me that anti-Peterson voters are more likely to show up at the polls than pro-Peterson voters. In the 1994 general election, nationwide and throughout Indiana, record numbers of Democratic incumbents were swept out of office in a Republican landslide. The reverse happened in the 2006 general election where many Republicans were swept out of office. Actual voter turnout was not that great, but those who did bother to show up were determined to send a message that they did not approve of President Bill Clinton and a Democratic-controlled Congress in 1994, or President George W. Bush and a Republican-controlled Congress in 2006.
With people so angry about rising taxes and crime in Marion County and widespread corruption and cronyism among the Democratic-led council, we could see a repeat of that "throw the bums out" in this year's election, notwithstanding the lack of campaign funding for the GOP candidates.
Gary -
ReplyDeleteHere's the video of Bart Peterson's opening remarks to Bates-Hendricks Neighborhood Forum
I would have bought your logic on this yesterday but not today.
ReplyDeleteOn the near East Side there are Keller yard signs along side of Ballard signs in the same yards at various houses. What logic is there in that?
These folks will go vote for Keller but will not cast a vote for Ballard OR Peterson. If they don't know Keller is on Bart's payroll then stupid is as stupid does.
I guess this tells us something about the validity of online polls. Bart will get 56 to 59%
ReplyDeletedon't think so. it's going to be much closer than people think, perhaps on protest vote alone.
ReplyDeletethe better news may be that some seemingly bullet-proof CCC members are in serious trouble.
just wait.
I don't like it in South Detroit!
ReplyDeleteI'd like Indianapolis back.
9:08, reality called--they'd like their facts back.
ReplyDelete6:17 is about right, on the low end.
City Council; remains 15-14 Democratic, perhaps clicks up one Dem seat.
That same online poll had Eric Dickerson winning last year.
Just sayin'.
If thats the case, I am very thankful I moved my family out of Indianapolis.
ReplyDelete