Can anyone stop Peterson from winning again next year?
Probably not. There's likely just one way Peterson doesn't win a third term: That's if, despite his stated plans to run again, he decides not to.
Tully's take may have been true as recently as about six months ago, but the whole dynamic of the 2007 mayoral race has changed over the last several months. The explosion in violent crimes over the past year has many people concerned about public safety. The budget mess and rising taxes have created unease among voters and are providing extra incentives for people to move out of Marion County to better managed and safer suburban counties. And then there's that growing cloud of scandal surrounding several Marion Co. Democrats. If Tully doesn't think Peterson is vulnerable, he is living in another world.
One particular issue Tully raised about Randolph is one that is heard a lot, and it's not good news for Randolph. Tully writes:
Some, for instance, ask whether the 42-year-old Pike Township resident works as hard at policy and politicking as publicity. Others recall he stumbled badly last year in a bid to fill a vacant state Senate seat.
The publicity hound label has been firmly attached to Randolph, and he might have a difficult time shaking it. The daily replays on WIBC's Garrison have probably done him more harm than good. The image doesn't play well for him in Marion Co. Republican circles as became quite evident in his bid for Murray Clark's senate seat last year.
As an aside, I found it fascinating how quickly Democratic members of the city-county council, plus one oddity--Republican Jim Bradford, rallied to the defense of Councilor Ron Gibson, who has been charged by a Democratic special prosecutor from Monroe County with battery on a police officer, disorderly conduct and public intoxication. Many of these same folks thought it perfectly okay for Rep. Carson to try and convict a Republican African-American candidate, Eric Dickerson, for a 15-year-old, unproven charge even the alleged victim denies he's guilty of committing. And what's going on with Bradford? He appeared at Gibson's rally yesterday with a full beard and was sloppily attired--the complete opposite of how he typically looks and dresses.
Gary-
ReplyDeleteGOP polling puts the Mayor in the high 60s to low 70s.
I'd straw poll him about there as well.
People aren't blaming the mayor (well, those that weren't blaming him for anything else wrong *cough FOP *cough).
If its Ike, Mayor will cruise to a 10 point victory.
If its anyone elst, Mayor will cruise to a 10 point victory.
Matt Tully becomes more and more irrelevant every time he puts pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard). First he calls Eric Dickerson's campaign a joke, then his stand on lawful CCW permit holders exercising their rights in state parks, and now this pile of steaming manure.
ReplyDeleteThe only way Ike Randolph will get the GOP nod for Mayor is if Bart is seen as invincible. There's no way Hoosier Republicans would stand by and let an African-American run for a winnable office. Ike might be an acceptable GOP 'sacrificial lamb' but not a winnable candidate. In the over 30 years of Marion County GOP domination, no African-Americans were ever slotted for winnable county offices. None. Lily-white was the rule...
ReplyDeletePeople might draw a comparison to when Goldsmith sought his second term. He was similarly perceived as being unbeatable and the Democrats didnt' bother to field a strong candidate against him. By election day, his popularity had fallen way off and he only managed about 54% of the vote. The Democratic candidate ran poorly (under 40%), but the Libertarian candidate got about 7% of the vote as people looked for an alternative. The Democratic chairman, Kip Tew, was heavily criticized afterwards for failing to field a stronger candidate. Republicans would be making a similar mistake if they didn't look for their strongest candidate in 2007--the election is winnable.
ReplyDeleteJim Bradford? Huh? That don't make a lotta sense.
ReplyDeleteAnd polling - considering that at this time because nobody has come forward from the GOP except the rumblings from Ike everyone assumes Bart will be unopposed.
I got news for you: Bart ain't that popular.
Prognostications from monarchists in the Region are worth a pail of warm spit ...
ReplyDeleteby the way, hailstones are as welcome in Indiana as illegal aliens with syphilis and AK47s...
ReplyDeleteBradford's attendance is particularly puzzling, because he and his family have made tons of money as shepherds of liquor licenses. His dad started that business 30 years ago, and Jim carries it on.
ReplyDeleteI don't know where you've seen Bradford, AI, but I've seen him at multiple events looking like the GOP's Julia. Kinda sloppy, to put it mildly.
Wilson, why the race-baiting? The GOP's state chairman, Murray Clark, is as good a gentleman as you'll find. He's wrong on most big issues of couse, but he's respected a great deal. I'm not sure the state GOP chair can do anything about the Marion County ticket anyway. Now, Chair/Rep Murphy, that's another matter. He's an ideological nightmare--strident and shrill.
AI, I'll leave the GOP side of the 07 ticket to you and others in your party. But if you want to continue to think that anything can derail this Mayor, short of getting arrested himself, go ahead. It's just not the real world. Not even close.
Most of the Dem establishment is already patting themselves on the back for winning everything in the county in five weeks. Premature, but, given the pathetic typical Center Twp. turnout, if they think the Ds are gonna win big, it will likely keep some people at home. Over-confidence is their biggest hurdle right now.
And as for Mr. Tully, I refuse to get all bent out of shape over anything he writes.
Happy blogging.
I caught a little bit of Abdul's interview with Ike this morning. Abdul first wanted to know why he hadn't given him a heads up on his mayoral intentions--"I thought we were friends". Ike didn't seemed pleased that AI had first broken the news about his e-mail to key supporters and the call he got this week from Tully. He indicated that he wanted to explain to Tully what he was up to, but he really didn't want his plans discussed publicly at this time.
ReplyDeleteHe's running, AI. No doubt.
ReplyDeleteHis Clark Senate replacement battle was a classic come-uppance to Chairman Murphy, delivered with a gut punch thrown by Hamilton County Republicans. Ike never knew what hit him.
I remember Goldy's second campaign. The Demo nominee was Z. Mae Jimison. A finer lady no one could ever meet. She is a former judge and council member. With a shoestring budget, she got about 43%, as I recall.
Goldsmith didn't lay a glove on her.,..he couldn't. She was a grandma-type short black lady...how could he attack her?
Goldy's less-than-stellar showing, with a huge war chest, began to spell the end of his political career.
Good riddance.
Would Ike have to take a leave from IFD to run? Hell let's just shut down the city ballot filings until all the public payroll folks fill the slots. It's worked so well to have public employees on the council thus far.
Rumors of Ike's Mayoral intentions have been around since this time last year. Ever notice how many letters to the editor he writes?
ReplyDeleteHe lied about his stance on the HRO and stabbed us in the back. Twice. He's known for being a lap dog to his council buddies Bradford and Schneider and votes however they do. Not exactly Mayor material in my opinion.
Z. Mae Jimison - another typical Carson Ghetto Mafia crony.
ReplyDelete2:04, Z. Mae is anything but a member of the GM. Kind, compassionate, fine Christian lady. And not political enough to survive in a system that ate her alive.
ReplyDeleteShe chased Goldsmith all over town, at events, and it really got his goat. But he knew he couldn't publicly chastise her.
It was a fun campaign to watch.
Z. Mae was another embarrasment-- eating chicken and cake all over the darn courtroom. She was often late sitting on the bench and ran it with little regard to timeliness. It was disgusting.
ReplyDeleteUpdate:
ReplyDeleteWilson the black community is not satifisfied with Mayor Bart's performance, you had better take off your blinders.
Julia Carson did not support Judge Jimison for mayor. She as "neutral"
In fact Julia Carson does not support other black women period for office, she is too petty and envious.
She did not help Councilwoman Sharron Franklin get elected.
She supported white females like Susan Williams v Lula Journey,
Becky Pierson-Treacy v Tanya Walton Pratt for Judge.
Educated and successful black women are a big threat to Carson.