Wishful Thinking By Some In 7th District Race

The "political experts" tell the Star's Brendan O'Shaughnessy that the presence of several African-American candidates in the May Democratic primary might split the black vote and pave the way for victory for a white candidate, State Rep. David Orentlicher. "The presence of three well-known black candidates, including Andre Carson, for the 7th District congressional seat could split the black vote in the May primary and open the door to a white candidate," O'Shaughnessy writes. Not surprisingly, Andre Carson isn't worried. "African-American voters are very astute politically," he said the day after his victory in the special election. "That's OK that there are challengers. We're moving forward."

What Carson is trying to tell folks and which he is right about, Carolene Mays and Woody Myers have no support in the black community. They're going to find more support among white voters who don't like David Orentlicher. And keep this important fact in mind. While blacks make up 30% of the voters in the 7th District, they will likely represent nearly a majority, if not an outright majority, of the voters in the Democratic primary. That's because many more white voters choose a Republican primary ballot over a Democratic primary ballot. The unknown variable this year is whether white Republican voters will pick a Democratic ballot instead of a Republican ballot because of the hotly contested presidential race between Clinton and Obama. That could help Orentlicher, but it could just as easily help Myers. Remember, Orentlicher has taken a beating in his past campaigns against well-funded Republicans so he has some higher negatives than the lesser-known Myers. Regardless, you can bet the Center Township vote will come in very big for Carson--a vote which will arrive to be counted a few hours after the polls close when it's known just how big that vote will need to be to ensure a Carson victory.